Despite the continuing epidemic, in Q3 the increased vaccination coverage and the absence of restrictions on movement or activity meant that Europe was able to continue its economic recovery, mainly as a result of brisk domestic demand, except in Spain. In the United States, in contrast, where the vaccination rate is lower, the epidemic wave at the end of the summer, combined with inflationary tensions and the end of public aid for households, had an effect on consumption, causing a slowdown in activity. In China, outbreaks of the epidemic, electricity shortages and severe fl ooding led to the closure of means of production: as a result, GDP fell back for the first time since Q1 2020.

With the exception of Spain, the main Eurozone economies, as well as the United Kingdom and even more so the United States and China, have returned to around their pre-crisis level, or have already surpassed it. However, they are still all below their pre-crisis trend, including the Chinese and US economies. In fact, the difference between the present trend and the pre-crisis trend in China and the United States is around 3%, fairly similar to that France and Italy, while Germany is slightly behind (about 4%). Both the United Kingdom (5%), and especially Spain (10%) appear to be further from their pre-crisis trend.

In Q4 2021, two factors, which are partly linked, affected world growth alongside the uncertainties of the health situation: input shortages disrupting production and inflationary tensions that can affect both business costs and household consumption. World industry is still affected by bottlenecks in world trade, in a context of energetic demand, especially in the United States where the consumption of goods has been very much buoyed up. For example, according to declarations by businesses, the delays they are facing in deliveries of inputs are still continuing at this summer’s record levels. The rise in infl ation in all the western economies, and especially the United States, is a result of the rise in the cost of commodities and partly because of these production difficulties, and could aff ect household purchasing power. To combat this inflation, the central banks could gradually implement a tightening of monetary policy, and in particular an increase in interest rates seems possible in 2022 in the United States. Such monetary tightening could hamper recovery.

Added to these economic problems are fears linked to a deterioration in the health situation, caused both by the intensity of the fi fth wave in Northern and Eastern Europe and concerns over the appearance of the Omicron variant: in addition to the possible introduction of new restrictions, these fears could result in more cautious consumption behaviour and a slower recovery for international tourism. The “high-frequency” indicator giving the number of Google searches for “restaurant”, for example, showed a particularly marked decline in Germany in November.