In Q3 2021, the unemployment rate according to the ILO defi nition remained virtually stable compared to the previous quarter: +0.1 points, at 8.1% of the active population. This near-stability is the result of substantial accompanying increases in employment (+273,000 as a quarterly average, after +305,000 in H1) and in the active population (+325,000, after +320,000 in H1, with the active population reaching an unprecedented level and thus exceeding its trend level). Half of these increases involved 15-24 year-olds, and were mainly the result of sandwich contracts which have increased in number since 2017 and accelerated in 2021. Thus the activity rate among young people reached 41.1% in Q3 2021, up by 1.8 points compared to spring and by 3.2 points compared to its pre-crisis level. For all people aged 15 and over, the increase in the active population in Q3 2021 was mainly off set by a substantial decline in the number of inactive persons in the “halo of unemployment”: –175,000 persons, after near-stability since Q3 2020.

In Q4 2021, the active population is expected to slip back slightly in reaction (–27,000), due to a rebound in the halo of unemployment after its atypical decline in the previous quarter, then increase a little in H1 2022 (+40,000). Taking into account the expected rise in employment (+73,000 as a quarterly average in Q4 2021, then +84,000 in H1 2022), the number of unemployed according to the ILO defi nition is likely to drop by 100,000 in Q4 2021. The unemployment rate is therefore expected to fall to 7.8% of the active population, then decrease gradually over H1 to 7.6%.

This forecast remains dependent on future change in the active population, however, the trend level remains diffi cult to determine after two years of exceptionally large fl uctuations. The chosen scenario is based on the latest available active population projections, dating from 2017, adjusted to take into account observed pre-crisis trends and the recent activity behaviour of young people, attributable to the growth in sandwich contracts.1 All in all, the forecast for the active population is for a slowdown compared to the changes observed in 2021, with a return to a similar level of growth to precrisis: it is likely that the slowdown in the trend labour force population will be more than off set by the eff ects of sandwich contracts on the activity of young people.