In 2021, infl ation rose sharply: after reaching zero in December 2020 (0.0% over one year), it now stands at +2.8% for November, according to the provisional estimate. This increase was mainly driven by energy prices: after dropping to particularly low levels in 2020, they have recovered signifi cantly since then, in the context of the global economic recovery.

Over the next six months, infl ation is expected to remain above 2.6% year-on-year (except in January, an automatic consequence of the postponement of the winter sales in 2021) under the conventional assumption that the price of oil is fi xed at $75 for a barrel of Brent and there is stability in other commodity prices. It is also assumed that the structure of consumption used to weight the consumer price index (CPI) in 2022 will be the same as for 2021, i.e. the structure of consumption in 2020.

The contribution of energy prices to headline inflation is expected to remain significant, but it looks set to decrease under the conventional assumption used, through the automatic effect of their increase one year earlier (“base effect”). In addition, over the forecasting period, the regulated gas tariff is likely to remain stable due to the price shield introduced in October. All in all, the change in energy prices is expected to drop from 21.6% year-on-year in November 2021 to 11.8% in June 2022. At the same time, inflation is expected to increase in manufactured products and food: past increases in the prices of industrial and agricultural commodities (especially cereals) have indeed resulted in recent and significant increases in production prices, which are likely to begin to have repercussions on consumer prices. The prices of manufactured goods should therefore move from a year-on-year change of 0.8% in November 2021 to 1.8% in June. Finally, after returning to a more normal seasonality in 2021, the prices of services should make a stable contribution to inflation in the coming months.

Consequently, while headline inflation is likely to remain relatively stable in H1 2022, core inflation is expected to increase over the entire period –apart from January due to the winter sales– and reach +2.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the momentum of the prices of manufactured products and, to a lesser extent, those of food products, excluding fresh food.