In Q3, household consumption increased by 4.9%, bringing it much closer to its pre-crisis level (–1.0% compared to Q4 2019). Above all, this dynamism clearly shows the rebound in spending in those sectors previously subject to health restrictions (accommodation-catering, transport services, leisure activities, etc.), although consumption in these sectors is still below its pre-crisis level. Spending on goods, however, offers a more contrasting situation, between some strong increases (electronic equipment) and some levels still in decline (purchases of vehicles). Despite the rise in oil prices, fuel consumption even exceeded its pre-crisis level slightly over the summer.

In Q4 2021, household consumption by volume is expected to continue its trajectory back to its pre-crisis level, especially in transport services, leisure activities and accommodation-catering. Regarding goods, additional spending observed since the beginning of the health crisis looks set to continue for electronic and computer equipment, whereas purchases of vehicles and other industrial products are likely to decline. All in all, consumption is expected to return almost to its pre-crisis level in Q4, an improvement of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter: it should therefore rebound by 4.5% in 2021 (after tumbling 7.2% in 2020). 

In H1 2022, household spending on the most affected items should gradually return to pre-crisis level, although for some items it is still likely to remain well below (especially purchases of vehicles, linked to supply chain difficulties hampering production in the sector). In other sectors, household consumption overall is likely to recover its previous momentum, reflecting the return to normal of consumer behaviour. All in all, the carry-over effect of consumption should reach 4.1% by mid-year.

After a substantial increase at the height of the crisis, the household savings ratio is expected to continue to decrease gradually, reaching 16.1% in Q2 2022, slightly above its 2019 level (15.0%).

Concerning household investment, it is expected to continue to increase in Q4, then decline slightly at the beginning of next year, affected by the downturn in deliveries of new homes and the slowdown in the pace of second-hand real estate transactions.