In Q3 2021, exports accelerated signifi cantly while imports remained stable, with the result that foreign trade made a positive contribution to change in GDP. The dynamism of exports is due mainly to the gradual return of nonresident tourists during the summer, after very poor levels in previous quarters. This recovery in tourism has also helped imports, although to a lesser degree, with French residents travelling abroad. In addition, in a context of increasing supply chain problems, trade in manufactured products, both imports and exports, declined in Q3, especially transport equipment.

By the end of 2021, tourism is expected to stagnate as a result of uncertainties associated with the pandemic. It is likely that trade in manufactured products will still be limited by the persistence of supply chain problems, although aeronautical and naval deliveries should ensure that exports maintain growth. Imports are expected to increase, although more moderately, with the result that foreign trade is likely to contribute positively to change in GDP.

In Q1 2022, exports are set to increase slightly, then reach a second peak in growth as a result of new naval deliveries in the spring. However, it is likely that transport equipment will continue to aff ect the shortfall in trade compared to its pre-crisis level, with supply chain problems in the sector easing only slowly. In Q1 and Q2 2022, the recovery in tourism is expected to be sluggish, although it should still make a positive contribution to the development of trade.