The dynamism of GDP in Q3 2021 was mainly reflected in the automatic rebound in activity in those services that had previously been subject to health restrictions (accommodation-catering, transport, leisure, etc.). In industry and construction, activity grew at a much more moderate pace, even declining in some industrial branches (manufacture of transport equipment in particular).

The economic outlook in Q4 appears to be one of contrasts. Business climate indicators, based on business tendency surveys, are at very high levels. They remained high in October and November, on the basis of responses from business leaders, most of which were collected before the strong resurgence of the virus. At the same time, production capacity, especially industrial capacity, was subject to increasing tensions: supply chain difficulties, which in October were at historic levels, the highest since this series began, and record rises in production prices. Lastly, the deterioration in the health situation, which has not as yet resulted in further restrictions, is likely to affect activity in services, through reduced air travel, for example.

In this context, the increase in activity in Q4 2021 is likely to result mainly, as in Q3, from the increase in market services, especially those that are still below their pre-crisis level and are now able to benefit from potential catch-up. In industry, the increase in activity is expected to be less, mainly because of further deterioration in activity in transport equipment (especially the automobile industry).

In H1 2022, GDP is again expected to be driven mainly by market services, especially those where the catch-up continues. However, some branches are likely to still remain well below their pre-crisis level into Q2 2022: accommodation-catering and transport services, in a context of only partial recovery still in international tourism, and transport equipment, due to supply chain problems that are slow to clear up. Finally, after the significant catch-up recorded in H1 2021 and relative stability during the rest of the year, construction is likely to weaken in Q1 and Q2 2022, since housing starts were less dynamic in 2021 than pre-crisis.