In H2 2021, the nominal average wage per capita (SMPT) is expected to increase briskly (+4.9% in Q3 and +1.0% forecast for Q4), as a result of the rise in payroll due to the significant drop in short-time working compensations (which are not considered as wages). The renewal of the extraordinary purchasing power bonus (PEPA) and the increase in the SMIC by +2.2% on 1st October are also likely to boost the SMPT. This automatic increase in a context of net upturn ininfl ation is also likely to contribute to the rise in the basic monthly wage (SMB). All in all, the nominal SMPT is expected to return to its pre-crisis trajectory by the end of the year. Thus on average over 2021 it is likely to rebound signifi cantly (+6.7% after –4.9%), while the purchasing power of the SMPT, moderated by the rise in prices, is likely to be a little less dynamic (+4.9% after –5.5%).

In H1 2022, nominal wages are expected to remain buoyant (+0.8% in Q1 then +0.6% in Q2 for the SMPT), probably driven by another increase in the SMIC on 1st January of around +0.9%, and by taking into account increases in consumer prices and hiring difficulties in wage negotiations in many branches. Short-time working, which was already fairly low towards the end of 2021, is expected to fall back further and make only a low level contribution to change in SMPT. Conversely, the decision of 31 March 2022 regarding the possibility of paying the PEPA bonus is likely to have a slight impact on the SMPT in Q2. All in all, in the non-agricultural market branches, the SMPT in real terms looks set to increase by 1.3% as a carryover eff ect in mid-2022 compared to its 2019 level.

In general government, the nominal SMPT is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2021, after +2.8% in 2020. This is mainly driven by the payment of exceptional bonuses to emergency workers who were mobilised in the context of the health crisis and by upward revisions to hospital civil service wages, set out in the “Ségur de la santé” agreements and implemented from autumn 2020. However, given the rise in prices, general government wages in real terms look set to decline slightly in 2021 (–0.2%, after +2.1% in 2020). In 2022, a rebound is expected in the nominal general government SMPT mainly as a result of the planned increase in the wages of category C personnel. All in all, in general government, the SMPT in real terms is likely to increase by 1.4% in overhang by mid-2022 compared to its 2019 level.