In Q3 2021, world trade in goods and services slowed, but growth continued despite supply chain problems: +0.4% after +1.3% in spring. As in Q2, this improvement was due to increased trade by the advanced countries. For the emerging economies, and especially China, trade fell back slightly, in a context of closures of some shipping terminals. World trade therefore surpassed its pre-crisis level by 2.2% this summer, but was signifi cantly below its pre-crisis trend.

At the end of the year, world trade is expected to continue to grow at a similar pace (+0.5%). The advanced economies are once again expected to contribute to trade growth, in contrast to the subdued trade in the emerging countries.

World demand for French products also slowed this summer (+0.5% in Q3 after +2.3% in Q2), but remained buoyant thanks to the dynamism of imports by European partners. France was therefore able to get back to its precrisis level. By the end of the year, it should grow a little more, benefitting from the buoyancy of trade in the advanced countries. As an annual average, world demand for French products is expected to rebound by +9.4% in 2021, after –9.1% in 2020.

At the start of 2022, world trade looks set to accelerate, mainly as a result of the revival of trading activity in the emerging countries, despite supply chain diffi culties which are not expected to be fully resolved over the forecasting period. As a result, world demand for French products should be more vigorous than at the end of 2021, both because of its European partners and the emerging economies.