In Q3 2021, strong growth in activity (+3.0%) was mainly driven by the increase in consumption (+4.9%), after Q2 had been affected to some extent by health restrictions. Government consumption was also dynamic, with education services returning to normal and the ongoing vaccination and testing campaigns. Foreign trade too had a positive impact on growth: the return of international tourism, although only partially, helped build momentum in exports, while imports increased only slightly, especially with regard to domestic demand. Both domestic and foreign demand have therefore increased more sharply than resources (domestic production and imports), suggesting a strong destocking trend.

In Q4 2021, household consumption is expected to slow after its vigorous catch-up in the previous quarter. Once again, it will probably be driven by sectors previously affected by the restrictions (accommodation-catering, transport services, services to households, etc.). In other sectors any increase is likely to be nearer the trend rate, or may even decline (limited increase in electronic equipment, drop in vehicle purchases). Government consumption is expected to be virtually stable. Meanwhile, investment is likely to increase moderately, with supply chain problems hampering investment mainly by non-financial enterprises in manufactured products and that of general government in construction. The contribution of foreign trade should remain slightly positive, with exports more dynamic than imports, mainly due to naval deliveries. All in all, GDP looks set to increase by 0.5% in Q4, putting it 0.4% above its pre-crisis level (level in Q4 2019); this would represent annual growth of 6.7% compared to 2020 (after –8.0%).

In H1 2022, all components of domestic demand are expected to accelerate slightly. Household consumption should continue to catch up in those sectors that are still below their pre-crisis level. Government consumption is likely to rise slightly in Q1, driven by testing and vaccinations, and investment is expected to increase moderately, in a context where supply chain difficulties are slow to dissipate. The contribution of foreign trade looks set to be zero overall, with exports boosted in Q2 by another major delivery of naval equipment, while imports evolve in line with domestic demand. All in all, GDP is likely to rise by 0.4% in Q1 –a slight slowdown in a situation made even more uncertain by the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe, which is likely to affect the behaviour of economic agents, even if no new restrictions are put in place– then by 0.5% in Q2. The carry-over effect for 2022 –i.e. the annual growth that would be observed if GDP were stable in Q3 and Q4– is expected to be 3.0%.