At the start of 2021, the margin rate of non-financial corporations (NFC) stood at a particularly high level as a result of the combined effect of support measures, which had been strengthened since Q4 2020 (especially the Solidarity Fund), and the decrease in taxes on production. Thus in the latest version of the national accounts, it reached a historic high of 35.9% of the value added of NFCs in Q1 2021, then declined slightly in Q2, to 35.4%.

In H2, the margin rate of NFCs is expected to decline significantly, down to 32.0% by year’s end: the rebound in activity is likely to be accompanied by a decrease in the level of subsidies paid, especially through the Solidarity Fund, which was replaced on 1st October by an extension of fi xed cost coverage, a more selective scheme. The gradual decline in the take-up of short-time working, and the higher contributions required from those companies that use it, are expected to automatically increase the real cost of labour per capita, more so than productivity. Finally, the terms of trade (ratio of price of value added to consumer price) are generally expected to be unfavourable across the half-year.

In Q4 2021, the margin rate is expected to be 0.6 points above its 2018 average (2019 having been aff ected by the double payment related to the CICE tax credit). The reasons for this difference compared to 2018 are the slightly higher subsidies and the buoyancy of the value added of NFCs: this would appear to have increased more over three years than remunerations paid. As an annual average, the margin rate should stand at 34.0% in 2021, given the very high values reached in H1.