After stability in Q1, GDP grew in Q2 2021 (+1.1%), reflecting the rebound in activity in May and June after the April lockdown. If we assume that there will be no further health restrictions now that the vaccination campaign is underway, our scenario remains one of a continuing recovery until the end of the year at a more moderate pace month by month after the very high level reached in June, as described in the Economic Outlook of September 2021. In Q3, activity is expected to be about –0.6% compared to the pre-crisis level, i.e. an increase of 2.7% compared to Q2. GDP should then rise by about 0.5% in Q4, generally returning to its precrisis level. In H2, growth in activity is expected to be driven mainly by household consumption, after still being very much aff ected by health restrictions in H1. The contribution of investment is likely to be more limited, after the buoyancy of previous quarters, and that of foreign trade looks set to remain negative, with domestic demand boosting imports, while exports still remain well below their pre-crisis level. All in all, across all of 2021, GDP is expected to grow by 6¼% compared to 2020 (after –8.0%).