Since the start of the year, against a backdrop of rebounding energy prices that are much higher than the year before, as well as sharply rising prices for agricultural and mineral commodities, inflation has risen considerably, from 0.0% year-onyear in December 2020 to 2.1% in September 2021, according to this month’s provisional estimate. Core inflation, which by defi nition is less aff ected by the increase in energy prices and agricultural commodities, rose more moderately than headline inflation: in September it would appear to have reached +1.3% year-on-year, after peaking at +1.5% in August due to the delay in the start of the summer sales compared to 2020.

By the end of the year, it is expected that headline inflation will still be above 2%: it will probably reach 2.3% in October then fall back slightly (2.1% forecast for December), under the conventional assumption that the price of oil is fixed at $75 for a barrel of Brent and there is stability in other commodity prices. This profi le is mainly the result of energy prices: their contribution is likely to remain strong until the end of the year, but should decline automatically (“base eff ect”) after the rise in oil prices seen at the end of 2020.

Food inflation should remain broadly stable until December: prices of food products excluding fresh produce are expected to rise, due to the recent increase in agricultural commodities, but conversely, the price of fresh food is likely to decelerate year-on-year, having increased sharply towards the end of 2020 as a result of the second lockdown. Prices of manufactured products are expected to be driven up by recent increases in industrial production costs. However, the prices of services are likely to slow slightly until December, with the expected deceleration in transport services, which should return to a more normal seasonality than that observed last year.

Meanwhile, core inflation looks set to increase gradually over the coming months, reaching 1.5% year-on-year in December, driven by the price of manufactured goods.