After deteriorating sharply in April as a result of the third lockdown, household consumption in June returned almost to its pre-crisis level (–1% compared to Q4 2019, after –4% in May and –12% in April). In July, it would appear to have fallen back slightly, to 2% below its pre-crisis level. It would seem to have been adversely affected by a downturn in purchases of goods, despite the buoyancy in spending in those services where restrictions had previously applied (accommodationcatering, transport services and leisure activities). In August, consumption seemed to remain for the most part at the same level as in July with purchases of goods picking up slightly but, conversely, spending on accommodation-catering and leisure slipped back, in the context of the introduction of the health pass. However, this downturn would seem to be just temporary and consumption appears to have increased slightly in September, to 1½% below its Q4 2019 level.

In Q4, household spending should get back to normal for most expenditure items. Thus consumption overall is expected to return to its pre-crisis level. However, it is likely to remain depressed in some specific sectors (accommodationcatering, transport and leisure services, with only a partial return of international tourism) or for certain types of goods (purchases of vehicles, as a result of sourcing problems limiting production).

All in all, consumption is expected to rise by 4.0% in Q3 then by 1.5% in Q4, giving an annual change of 4.1% in 2021, after plummeting by 7.2% in 2020. The household savings ratio is likely to decline gradually, after increasing signifi cantly at the height of the crisis: it should therefore be 17.5% at the end of the year, still above its pre-crisis level (15.3% in Q4 2019) but well below its Q2 2021 level (21.4%).