In H1 2021, payroll employment bounced back signifi cantly: +438,000 between the end of 2020 and the end of June 2021, after –293,000 for the whole of 2020. Thus by the end of June 2021, payroll employment had exceeded its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019) by 145,000 (or +0.6%). In H2 2021, payroll employment is expected to continue to increase, but to a lesser degree: +76,000 (+0.3%). Since June, the upswing in activity has been accompanied by a decline in the use of short-time working, resulting in a sharp rebound in working time per employee and apparent labour productivity per capita.

If we also take self-employment into account, which looks likely to fall back moderately in 2021, total employment (payroll and self-employment) should increase by 474,000 in 2021 (between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021), after –263,000 in 2020, thus exceeding its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019) by 211,000 jobs by the end of 2021.

After a historic decline in 2020, the number of active workers bounced back in H1 2021 and should increase further in H2, at the same pace as in H1 (+194,000 after +225,000), thus returning to its pre-crisis trend trajectory. The strong rebound in employment in the middle of the year is expected to lead to a drop in unemployment, which should fall from an average of 8.0% in Q2 to 7.6% in Q3 and Q4.