In Q3 2021, earned income would appear to have accelerated signifi cantly (+3.0% after +0.7%), as a result of the everdecreasing use of short-time working schemes (now leading to more paid working hours for the employees concerned) and the increase in employment. At the same time, social benefits would seem to have fallen back (in September, fewer short-time working benefi ts and the end of exceptional assistance for workers in precarious employment) and social and tax contributions would seem to have rebounded (especially social contributions, in line with the hike in gross payroll). All in all, household GDI would seem to have increased by 0.8% in Q3. Given the acceleration in consumer prices (+0.7% as a quarterly variation after +0.2%), household purchasing power would appear to have been at a standstill this quarter (+0.1%).

In Q4 2021, those factors that could have affected household GDI in the previous quarter are expected to remain relatively stable (social benefits, taxes and social contributions slowed by the first housing tax relief for the 20% most well-off households). Changes in household GDI now look set to be determined by the rise in earned income, driven by wage increases and the rise in employment. Household GDI is therefore expected to increase by 1.1% this quarter, and purchasing power should rally (+0.5%).

Across the whole of 2021, GDI is expected to increase substantially (+3.4% after +1.0% in 2020), due to the sharp rebound in earned income coupled with a moderate decline in social benefits. Given the rise in household consumer prices, household purchasing power is likely to be less buoyant than GDI: it is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2021, after +0.4% in 2020. When converted to consumption units in order to take demographic changes into account, it looks set to rise by 1.5%, after being stable in 2020.