After rallying slightly in H1, the average wage per capita (SMPT) in the non-agricultural market branches looks set to increase more strongly in H2: it is expected to rise by 3.4% in Q3 2021 then by 0.9% in Q4 ( Table). These developments are very much linked to the use of short-time working: with the gradual lifting of health restrictions, this scheme would appear to have declined signifi cantly during the summer, and should be merely residual in the autumn. The result would be a sizeable reduction in the short-time working compensations paid out, and an accompanying rise in payroll. This increase in SMPT is also likely to be boosted by the renewal of the extraordinary purchasing power bonus (PEPA), and, in Q4, by an increase in the minimum wage (+2.2% from October 2021), in a context of rising infl ation. Finally, at the end of 2021, the SMPT is expected to exceed its Q4 2019 level by 3.1%, almost back to the level it would have reached had it followed its trend for the decade that preceded the health crisis.

Changes in SMPT are made up of two components: the most short-term elements, affected first of all by the health crisis, and then the trend movements of wages, reflected in the basic monthly wage (SMB). Fluctuations in the SMB are therefore more moderate, between +0.3% and +0.5% per quarter. With the increase in the minimum wage on 1st October, the SMB is likely to be more dynamic towards the end of the year: +0.7% in Q4, of which about 0.2 points will be due to the increase in the minimum wage.