Since 2022, in a context of strong geopolitical tensions and imbalance between oil supply and demand, fuel prices at the pump are reaching much higher levels than before the health crisis. The pump price of a litre of fuel was €1.82 in November 2023 against €1.47 on average between 2018 and 2019. This Focus study breaks down the price of a litre of petrol at the pump, taking into account fluctuations in the price of crude oil, the costs of refining fuels (defined as the difference between the price of refined products and the price of crude), transport-distribution costs (defined as the difference between prices at the pump excluding tax and the price of refined products) and taxes.

The high pump prices observed since 2022 are due to the rise in the price of crude oil (+17 euro cents per litre for the period January 2022-November 2023 compared to the 2018-2019 average) and the increase in the price gap between crude oil and refined products (+12 cents). Transport and distribution costs have increased more moderately since 2022 (+9 cents per litre). Regarding fuel taxes, excise duty (formerly TICPE) is frozen at its 2018 level. Only revenue from VAT, which varies depending on the price of the product excluding tax, has increased (+5 cents per litre) but much less than the price of crude oil.

While the increase in crude oil prices has repercussions on prices after refining and on distribution costs, econometric modelling shows that part of the increase in pump prices remains unexplained by these price fluctuations alone. Since 2022, prices of refined petroleum products have averaged 18% above the modelled price, given crude oil prices. This difference may reflect other energy costs linked to environmental goals or an increase in net refining margins in Europe, explained, among other things, by tensions in oil refining capacities. The difference between prices at the pump and simulated prices, given the prices of refined products, has been less pronounced since 2022 (+6%). This gap may represent an increased burden in transport-distribution costs (such as energy, compliance with regulatory constraints or payroll), and possibly an increase in net margin. The analysis is still surrounded by the uncertainty inherent in modelling fuel prices. In addition, since the end of September 2023, the fall in oil prices and the cost-price sales strategies employed by distributors have led to a more pronounced drop in pump prices in hyper- and supermarkets than in outlets of the major brands...