With the pension reform enacted in April 2023, the age of entitlement will gradually rise from 62 to 64, and the minimum period for long careers will be extended. These changes will lead to changes in working patterns, particularly for people aged 55 or over.

According to a variant based on the 2022 working population projections, incorporating in particular the structural effects of the main measures of the 2023 reform, the projected number of working people by 2070 would be around 600,000 higher than in previous projections. A very small part of the effect (+40,000 workers) comes from the increase in the number of alternating work-study students resulting from this variant, and consequently of young workers aged 15 to 24.

Taking into account the pension reform of 2023, the projected activity rate by 2070 for people aged 55 to 69 would be 4.5 points higher than in the 2022 projections. The effect would be more marked for the 60-64 age group, for whom the increase in the activity rate would reach 10.9 points.

Most of these revisions would take effect by 2030, with the activity rates of people aged 55 and over increasing only slightly between 2030 and 2070. All in all, the working population would reach a peak in 2036, and then the number of people in work would fall until 2070.