According to the new INSEE projections, the working population would continue to grow slightly over the next two decades, rising from 30.1 million in 2021 to 30.5 million in 2040, then would fall to 29.2 million in 2070.

The decline beyond 2040 is explained by a decrease in the working-age population, in line with the recent update of the population projections. By 2070, the total population would increase slightly, but would continue to age; the number of people aged 70 or over would increase by 5.2 million with the arrival of the baby-boom generations, while the number of people under 70 would decrease by 3.1 million.

Past pension reforms continue to contribute to an increase in the activity rates of older people aged 60 to 69. In particular, the activity rate of people aged 60-64 would continue to increase before reaching a plateau at 58% around 2040, 20 points higher than in 2021. This year 2040 corresponds to the end of the ramp-up of the 2014 reform.

The higher proportion of older people aged 70 or more, with very low participation rates, would offset the increase in participation of those affected by past pension reforms, so that the projected participation rate of people aged 55 or more would stabilise at around 25%.

The growth of the labour force over the next decades is revised downwards compared to the previous projection exercise in 2017, in which the labour force increased every year until 2070, reaching 32.4 million. This revision is linked to the revision of the working-age population, while there is little revision of labour force participation patterns.