At the start of 2024, the short-term situations in the different industrial sectors, as measured by the composite business climate indicators, were unusually varied. All the balances of opinion on which business climate is based contribute to this wide diversity but the main contributor is currently that relating to the state of company order books. In sectoral terms, the strong heterogeneity that can be seen at present results both from particular short-term positions of sectors that are usually poorly correlated to the overall cycle, such as aeronautics, but also from a misalignment of sectors that are usually very close to the main cycle, especially branches that consume high levels of energy (wood, paper products and printing industries, chemical industry, rubber/plastic products and metallurgy), which have suffered a specific supply shock with the increase in commodity prices, independently of the behaviour demand for capital goods which traditionally accounts for cyclical variations.

In Europe, both Germany and Spain are also still experiencing episodes of high sectoral volatility, whereas in Italy these were limited to the health crisis. The main sectors responsible for this dispersion in Germany are generally the same as in France, in particular energy-intensive industries and other transport equipment. In Spain too, energy-intensive industries have contributed to the dispersion of industrial sectors, but the automotive sector, where the confidence indicator improved in 2022, contributed more than elsewhere in Europe.