The outlook for changes in the share of pension expenditure in GDP depends heavily on assumptions of future productivity. If labour productivity were to increase by an average of 1.6% per year, the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP would be stable or decreasing from 2032, to settle at 12.1% in 2070, compared to 14.7% if productivity were to increase by only 0.7%. This stability or even decrease in the share of pension expenditure may seem counter-intuitive in view of the expected ageing of the population. The increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64, as a result of reforms adopted, and the smaller increase in pensions compared to earned income would, in effect, counterbalance this ageing. The standard of living of pensioners would thus be between 75.5% and 87.2% of the standard of living of the whole population in 2070, whereas it has been broadly equivalent since the early 2000s.

Nortier-Ribordy, F. (2023). Financial Outlook for the Pension System and the Standard of Living of Pensioners by 2070. Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 538, 89–105. doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2094