High-frequency monitoring of household and business electricity consumption, based on Enedis and RTE (Electricity Transmission Network) data, provides useful information for assessing the economic situation in Q4 2022, marked by the uncertainties associated with energy.

In the manufacturing industry, excluding the coke and refined petroleum products branch, affected as it is by occasional strikes, consumption by industrial sites connected directly to RTE, adjusted for seasonal variations, fell by 13% in October compared to its average over Q3 2022. During November, the decline intensified, to -16%. While this lower consumption may be partly the result of energy savings with no impact on production, it may also reflect a decline in industrial activity.

In October and November, household electricity consumption, adjusted for seasonal variations, looks set to be down 17% compared to the Q3 2022 average. Temperatures were particularly mild in October and November, which probably accounts for about half of this decline. The other half could be the result of changes in behaviour linked to price increases (past or anticipated), and with instructions on energy-saving.

As a result of the fall in domestic demand, the electricity trade balance, which was strongly negative during the summer, picked up temporarily in October and November, according to data published daily by RTE...