In Q4 2021, French GDP was 0.9% above its level before the health crisis, continuing its catch-up in several service sectors (trade, transport, services to households, etc.). The first three months of 2022 appear to be more contrasted. January saw a deterioration in the health situation (Omicron wave) and its consequences (use of teleworking, introduction of the vaccine pass, numbers limited for some events, etc.). In February, most restrictions were gradually lifted, and the business tendency surveys suggested that there could be a reacceleration in activity. March was affected by the first consequences of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, adding to difficulties around supply (problems with supply chain and hiring) and price tensions that were already being felt. In this context, the change in French GDP in Q1 2022 is for the most part likely to reflect this contrasting situation and it should therefore slow, with an increase of +0.3% forecast (after +0.7% in Q4). After an annual increase in GDP of +7.0% in 2021 compared to 2020, the carry-over effect for 2022 at the end of Q1 –i.e. the annual growth that would be seen if quarterly GDP remained stable for the rest of the year– would then be +2.7%.