In 2018, world activity remained solid, at +3.9% after +4.0% in 2017 and +3.4% in 2016. Certain emerging economies – notably China and Mexico – decelerated slightly, but there was a much sharper slowdown in Turkey, where inflation rose in line with the depreciation of the lira. World trade was less buoyant in 2018 in a context of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States. Oil prices were relatively volatile and rose on average over the year, fuelling inflation slightly.

In the advanced economies, activity also slowed down a little, to +2.2% after +2.4 %, but growth remained higher than in 2016. Activity gathered pace again in the United States, driven by a strong upswing in government spending and by the tax incentives that buoyed up private investment. It lost impetus in Japan, where it was adversely affected by seismic and meteorological events. In the United Kingdom, activity also faltered: domestic demand slowed due to the wait-and-see attitude prevailing in the run-up to Brexit, and exports stagnated after being sustained in 2017 by the depreciation of the pound. In the Eurozone, activity also decelerated to +1.8% after the peak growth rate recorded in 2017 (+2.5%: the highest rate in 10 years).
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy remained accommodating and helped maintain the momentum of outstanding loans in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, private consumption slackened down and exports suffered from the slowdown in world trade. Imports held up better, driven by domestic demand. Disparities were apparent between the major European countries: the French economy slowed substantially in H1 before accelerating somewhat in H2. In H2, the German and Italian economies slowed down, with the latter sliding into technical recession. Spain stood out by managing to maintain a 2.6% growth rate in 2018.