Industrial production index 

IPI

Sources
Paru le :Paru le17/07/2024
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Traitement statistique

Source data

Type of source: Statistical survey, except for certain activities which are subject to specific data collection (e.g. energy data).

Sample for industry except manufacture of food products and beverages: about 4800 firms; the sample is selected in the almost 30000 firms of the Annual Production Survey (with thresholds of 20 employees and 5 million euros of turnover).

Sample for the manufacture of food products and beverages: more than 7000 firms. The survey is conducted by the SSP (Service de la Statistique et de la Prospective), the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture.

Frequency of data collection

Monthly

Data collection

Questionnaires used in the survey: "Enquêtes de branche" (branch surveys).

Planned changes in national questionnaires: Yearly.

Data collection media: Mainly (95 %) electronic (Web questionnaire).

Data for energy and food and beverages industries are received from institutional partners.

Some data are also obtained from professional bodies.

Data collection period

Most of the data for month M is collected during month M+1. Nevertheless, data collection on month M continues for four months in order to collect late responses.

Collection mode

By Internet

Survey unit

Legal unit

Sampling method

The sampling plan combines cut-off and random methods, depending on the characteristics of the products. Each product is sampled independantly.

Sample size

4,800 (industry excluding food and beverages activities); 7,000 in the food and beverages industries.

Data validation

The data are validated before being sent to Eurostat. This validation is done in two stages: the checking (and if necessary correction) of individual data and then the checking of the aggregated indices. This second check may lead to further corrections of the individual data. We use selective editing.

Data compilation

Micro data is checked using selective editing methods.

Estimates for non-response on individual data: data from the previous period multiplied by a geometric mean between the average rates of change of the responding units and the changes between the same two months in the previous year, weighted by the response rate.

Type of index: Annual chain-linked Laspeyres indices with 2021 as reference year

Method of weighting and chaining: The weightings of the branches are based on raw value added at basic prices and are updated annually (chain-linked index). Within each branch the index is based on a representative sample of activities weighted by the sampling weights. The indices have a mean of 100 in 2021.

Planned changes in production methods : regular work is done to improve the construction of the sample and then the robustness and accuracy of estimates. In particular, work is carried out on the optimal choice, depending on activities, between cut-off and stratified sampling methods.

Actions to speed up or increase the rate of response: Phone or mail recall, (rarely) penalties and increased use of internet for data collection.

Adjustment

Indices are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Seasonal adjustment

The raw indices are seasonnaly and working-day adjusted (SA-WDA) using the X13 ARIMA program available in JDemetra +. The WD adjustment (trading days, leap year) and the seasonal adjustment decomposition are calculated at the 4-digit level of the NACE Rev. 2. The upper levels are obtained by aggregating the series (indirect method), in the same way as the agregation of raw data.

The Reg ARIMA calendar adjustment is used by constructing working day regressors based on the French national calendar (which takes into account working days specific to France).

Outliers (additive outliers, temporary changes, level shifts, seasonal outliers) are fixed in the past and are detected automatically on the past 12 months onwards. The critical value for outlier detection, the filter length and the model/filter selection depend on the series and may have to be changed manually to improve the quality of the seasonal correction. This was the case to neutralize some particular points associated with the 2020-2021 health crisis (lockdowns for example), which would have induced an unjustified distortion of the seasonal coefficients over the past.

Either additive or multiplicative decomposition can be used. The seasonal adjustment models are reexamined every year (favouring stability) and the parameters are re-estimated every month.

Each month the SA-WDA data are revised from 2012. For the seasonal adjustment of indices in the recent past, the models are now estimated over a reduced sub-period (from 2012 onwards), in accordance with Eurostat guidelines, and in order to reinforce the robustness of the seasonal adjustment. The data before 2012 are fixed in evolution, in accordance with Eurostat's guidelines (avoid revisions over a too long period).