Informations Rapides ·
26 July 2024 · n° 186
In July 2024, civil engineering business managers’ opinion on their past activity
has degraded sharply Quaterly survey of public works - July 2024
In July 2024, civil engineering business managers are way less optimistic than in April regarding their past activity, due to, among other reasons, unfavourable climatic conditions that they may have faced. However, they are reported to be slightly more optimistic regarding the expected evolution of their workforce.
The seasonal coefficients have been updated in July 2024. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.
In July 2024, civil engineering business managers are way less optimistic than in April regarding their past activity, due to, among other reasons, unfavourable climatic conditions that they may have faced. However, they are reported to be slightly more optimistic regarding the expected evolution of their workforce.
Business managers’ opinion on their past activity has degraded significantly
In July 2024, business managers are way more pessimistic than in April regarding the evolution of their activity over the past three months, the associated balance of opinion stands well below its long term average. This degradation of the opinion can be partially explained by the unfavourable climatic conditions that their company may have faced, due to particularly heavy rainfall during last spring. The associated balances of opinion have sharply dropped, way below their averages, for those who distinguished their client type as well as for those who do not. The balance on the past activity all client type taken together stands at a level that has not been measured since 2015 (when excluding the Covid crisis period).
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -6 | -2 | 1 | -21 |
| Past activity in the public-sector | -11 | -18 | -11 | -6 | -27 |
| Past activity in the private-sector | -9 | -12 | -6 | -3 | -22 |
| Expected activity | -11 | -12 | 0 | -8 | -7 |
| Expected activity in the public-sector | -15 | -19 | 2 | -15 | -12 |
| Expected activity in the private-sector | -14 | -11 | -10 | -9 | -7 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -19 | -14 | -20 | -17 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 45 | 41 | 45 | 33 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 8 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 24 | 31 | 21 | 16 | 22 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by customer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q3 | -21.0 | -6.6 |
| 2024-Q2 | 1.0 | -8.2 |
| 2024-Q1 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2023-Q4 | -6.3 | -12.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -14.0 | -12.6 |
| 2023-Q2 | -6.9 | -9.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 4.5 | -14.7 |
| 2022-Q4 | -2.7 | -5.1 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.8 | -16.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | 1.4 | -14.3 |
| 2022-Q1 | -5.0 | -3.1 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.6 | 7.4 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.9 | 6.8 |
| 2021-Q2 | -11.0 | -8.6 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.7 | -21.4 |
| 2020-Q4 | 4.3 | -28.9 |
| 2020-Q3 | -90.0 | 18.6 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.6 | -5.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.7 | 11.1 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.6 | 19.2 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.0 | 22.6 |
| 2019-Q1 | 33.2 | 25.1 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.4 | 26.9 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.2 | 28.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.0 | 32.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.8 | 22.3 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | 35.3 | 28.6 |
| 2017-Q2 | 28.2 | 19.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 12.3 | 3.1 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
However, business managers’ opinion regarding their expected activity over the next three months changes very little: the corresponding balance of opinion is almost stable, slightly above its long term average. For managers distinguishing their client types (could they be private or public), the balances of opinion have increased ever so slightly and remain above their average.
Slightly more business managers than in April have considered the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion about the felt economic uncertainty has bounced back.
The order books are judged slightly more garnished than in April
In July 2024, business managers’ balance of opinion on the level of their order books has bounced back and remains above its long term average.
Employment prospects have improved
In July 2024, the balance of opinion about the evolution of the workforce size over the next three months has also bounced back. It stands clearly above its long term average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower have clearly dropped back but remain significant
In July 2024, 33% of companies have reported to be facing difficulties due to a lack of manpower. Despite a 12 points drop this quarter, this share is still standing above its long term average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 20 June 2024 and 17 July 2024.
Next issue: 25 October 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 20 June 2024 and 17 July 2024.
Next issue: 25 October 2024 at 12:00 pm.