Informations Rapides ·
26 July 2024 · n° 185
In July 2024, developers’ opinion on the new dwelling demand has improved but remains
very degraded Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - July 2024
In July 2024, real estate developers’ opinion about the new dwelling demand addressed to them has clearly improved compared to April, but remains significantly degraded. Their opinion regarding the prospects for housing starts is stable and remains very pessimistic. Moreover, developers are expecting their clients’ financing capacity to degrade.
The seasonal coefficients have been updated in July 2024. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.
In July 2024, real estate developers’ opinion about the new dwelling demand addressed to them has clearly improved compared to April, but remains significantly degraded. Their opinion regarding the prospects for housing starts is stable and remains very pessimistic. Moreover, developers are expecting their clients’ financing capacity to degrade.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q3 | -44.4 | -34.4 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.1 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.1 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -52.6 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.0 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.4 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.5 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -28.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.2 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.1 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.2 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.9 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.4 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -12.9 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.2 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.5 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.8 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.9 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.7 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -10.7 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.3 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.1 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.3 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Developers have reported to be less pessimistic regarding the demand addressed to them, but remain cautious when it comes to their economic prospects
In July 2024, developers’ balance of opinion on the demand addressed to them has clearly rebounded, after more than a year standing at some historically low levels. Despite this rebound, it remains significantly below its long term average.
However, developers are as pessimistic as in April on their prospects for housing starts: the corresponding global balance is stable, well above its average. In detail, the balance regarding the prospects of housing for sale has risen back slightly while remaining clearly below its average. Conversely, the one regarding the prospects of housing for rent in the social housing sector has slightly degraded and stands right below its long term average.
Slightly fewer developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs: their share has dropped back slightly but remains low, significantly below its long time average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has kept on dropping but still stands way above its long term average.
Developers’ opinion on the prospects for changes in financing capacity has deteriorated
In July 2024, real estate developers are less optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospects of evolution, over the next three months, of new home financing capacity. The associated balance of opinion has stepped back for two consecutive quarters of rise and has moved back its long term average.
The balance of opinion corresponding to the evolution of the average down payment of applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has dropped, dipping back below its long term average.
The balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale stabilizes well under his average, after two years of successive and pronounced drops.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -53 | -51 | -53 | -44 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -39 | -39 | -34 | -34 |
| for sale | -17 | -57 | -59 | -57 | -55 |
| for rent | 1 | -5 | -11 | 3 | -1 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 63 | 50 | 47 | 51 | 49 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -26 | -5 | -10 | -13 | -16 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -1 | -7 | -17 | -18 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -14 | -19 | -16 | -24 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -45 | -31 | -19 | -28 |
- * Average since July 1991
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 June 2023 and 23 July 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 June 2023 and 23 July 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2024 at 12:00 pm.