Informations Rapides ·
26 April 2024 · n° 104
In April 2024, developers’ opinion on the new dwelling demand has degraded but the
prospects for housing starts have bounced back slightly Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - April 2024
In April 2024, real estate developers’ opinion about the new dwelling demand addressed to them has degraded once again, after a slight rebound in January, but developers have reported being less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding both their housing start prospects as well as their client’s financing means.
In April 2024, real estate developers’ opinion about the new dwelling demand addressed to them has degraded once again, after a slight rebound in January, but developers have reported being less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding both their housing start prospects as well as their client’s financing means.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q2 | -53.5 | -33.1 |
| 2024-Q1 | -48.7 | -37.6 |
| 2023-Q4 | -53.8 | -41.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -51.3 | -33.6 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.2 | -30.0 |
| 2023-Q1 | -31.3 | -19.6 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 | -20.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 | -10.0 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 | -5.1 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 | 5.4 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 | -6.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 | -3.4 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 | -2.9 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 | -10.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -5.5 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 | -7.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 | -9.8 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 | -9.3 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 | -14.1 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 | -7.7 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 | -9.1 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 | -9.3 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 | -7.8 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 | -2.9 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 | 0.4 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 | 1.9 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Prospects for housing starts and new program studies have brightened for the second quarter in a row
In April 2024, developers’ opinion on the prospects for housing starts has improved for the second quarter in a row: both the global balance as well as the balance on housing for sale specifically have increased again. They remain however at a very low level, way below their long term average. The balance of opinion regarding the prospects of housing for rent (aimed toward social housing) has also risen and is back above his long term average.
More developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs. Their share has rebounded this quarter but remains very degraded, significantly below its long time average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has kept on dropping but still stands way above its long term average.
However, developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them has deteriorated in April, after an improvement in the last quarter which was following ten consecutive months of decline. The corresponding balance of opinion thus has edged its lowest level ever measured since the start of this index (1991).
Prospects for changes in financing capacity have gone back right above their average
In April 2024, real estate developers are again more optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospects of evolution, over the next three months, of new home financing capacity. The associated balance of opinion has increased sharply again and has moved above its long term average for the first time since the third quarter of 2022.
Similarly, the balance of opinion corresponding to the evolution of the average down payment of applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has risen and now stands above its long term average.
The balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale has kept on dropping since the last quarter of 2022. It stands well below his average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | Apr. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -11 | -51 | -54 | -49 | -53 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -34 | -41 | -38 | -33 |
| for sale | -16 | -43 | -62 | -57 | -55 |
| for rent | 1 | -17 | -7 | -8 | 5 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 63 | 49 | 50 | 47 | 51 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -26 | -7 | -6 | -9 | -14 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 9 | -1 | -7 | -15 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -16 | -16 | -18 | -13 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -41 | -47 | -29 | -19 |
- * Average since July 1991
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2023 and 23 April 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 July 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2023 and 23 April 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 July 2024 at 12:00 pm.