After plateauing for 11 months at around 6% year-on-year, the variation in consumer prices in France over the year declined in May 2023 (+5.1% year-on-year), mainly because petroleum products were cheaper than a year ago. However, the year-on-year variation in food prices remains dynamic (+14.3% year-on-year in May). By the end of the year, and assuming that the price of a barrel of Brent remains constant over the forecasting period (€72), inflation is expected to fall back a little to reach just under 4.5% year-on-year in December. This fall would be mainly due to “base effects”, given the strong momentum in consumer prices one year earlier, especially food prices. The consumer price index looks set to continue to rise, but less rapidly than a year ago. As an annual average, inflation is expected to stand at 5.0% in 2023, after 5.2% in 2022.