In Q1 2022, the decline of GDP in volume terms* (-0.2% in Q1, after +0.4% in Q4 2021) was linked to the weakness of household consumption (-1.5% after +0.3%), particularly in transport equipment (-2.3% after -0.9%), other manufactured goods (-2.1% after -0.6%) and in accommodation services and restaurants (-3.9% after -0.9%). Conversely, the total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was on the rise again (+0.6% after -0.3%), driven in particular by the investment in computer and information-communication services (+2.7% after +2.4%) and in capital goods (machine-tools, computer equipment, etc.: +4.8% after -1.7%). In total, final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed negatively to the evolution of GDP, by -0.6 points (after +0.2 points in the previous quarter).

Foreign trade continued to progress in Q1, but at a slower pace than in Q4. The increase was more marked on the exports side (+1.2% after +2.6%) than on the imports side (+0.5% after +3.9%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to the evolution of GDP was slightly positive this quarter: +0.2 points, after -0.4 in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive again this quarter (+0.2 points after +0.6 points in Q4 2021).

* Volumes were measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SVC-WD).

Gross disposable household income (GDHI) in current euros fell in Q1 2022 (-0.5% after +1.9%). In particular, social benefits in cash fell sharply (-1.5% after +2.7%), as a result of the mechanical impact of the inflation compensation benefit of €100 at the end of 2021. This decline was partly mitigated by the revaluation of basic pensions that took place in January, and by the sharp rise in the use of sick leave following the Omicron wave. In addition, tax deductions recovered sharply (+3.6% after -0.5%): housing tax rebounded mechanically, after its decline in the previous quarter, while income tax paid by households accelerated sharply. Payroll received by households remained dynamic but slowed down a little (+1.0% after +1.3%): salaried employment continued to progress (+0.3% after +0.4%) while the average wage per head slowed down slightly (+0.7% after +0.9%), due in particular to the increase in sick leave.

At the same time, the households’ consumption prices accelerated (+1.3% after +0.8%). As a result, the purchasing power of GDHI fell sharply this quarter (-1.8% after +1.1%). Measured by consumption unit to bring it at an individual level, it fell by 1.9% (after +0.9%).

As a result of the fell in GDHI, which was more marked than that of household consumption (see below), the household savings rate fell slightly: it stood at 16.7% after 17.0% in Q4 2021. It nevertheless remained above its average level in 2019 (15.0%).

Total worked hours decreased by 0.3% in Q1 2022 (after +0.8%). Total employment continued to rise, but worked hours fell due to the very sharp increase in the use of sick leave in connection with the epidemic wave of COVID-19. The use of the partial activity scheme went slightly down this quarter.

In Q1 2022, non financial corporations’ (NFCs) profit ratio fell again to 31.6%, after 32.0% in Q4 2021. This decline was mainly due to the increase in contributions and taxes on production paid by companies, as the fall in productivity (as employment continued to rise while the value added of NFCs fell) and the fall in real wages offset each other.

In Q1 2022, general government deficit decreased by 0.5 GDP points. It stood at 3.8% of GDP, after 4.3% in Q4 2021. The deficit was reduced for the third consecutive quarter, but still remained higher than its sanitary pre-crisis level (3.1% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2018). Revenues remained dynamic (+1.1% after +1.7%), driven by tax receipts and social contributions. Public expenditure were virtually stable (+0.1% after +1.3%): while social transfers declined due to the impact of the payment of the inflation compensation benefit of €100, subsidies went up sharply due to the implementation of the tariff shield on gas and electricity.

GDP growth in Q1 2022 was revised by -0.2 points (-0.2% instead of 0.0%) compared to the first estimate. Annual growth for 2021 has also been revised by -0.2 points (+6.8% instead of +7.0%) as well as its quarterly profile: revisions of +0.1 points in Q1 2021, -0.5 points in Q2, +0.2 in Q3 and -0.3 in Q4. This new profile, combined with the -0.2 point revision in Q1 2022, led to a marked revision of the growth rate overhang for 2022: at the end of the first quarter, it now stood at 1.9%, compared with 2.4% in the previous estimate.

These revisions, larger than usual, were the result of various factors. Firstly, this publication, as it is the case each year in May, incorporated a general revision of the methods and models used to estimate the quarterly accounts: recalibration to the annual accounts for the years 2020 and 2021, re-estimation of the seasonal and working day adjustment models (SA-WD) and of the calibration models.

In addition to these usual factors for revisions, there were methodological changes, implemented while switching to a new computer application. The SA-WD correction methodology has been aligned with Eurostat's recommendations (JDemetra), and the specific calibration treatments implemented in 2020 and 2021 following the exceptional variations in activity has been improved and made permanent.

The revision of the 2022 growth overhang is due in particular to the volume-price split in maritime transport, where the strong evolution of output in value terms during 2021 was due more to a price effect and less to a volume effect than previously estimated.