Insee
Insee Première · November 2021 · n° 1881
Insee Première68.1 million inhabitants in 2070: a population that would be slightly larger, but older, than in 2021

Élisabeth Algava and Nathalie Blanpain (Insee)

If recent demographic trends were to continue, the population of France would increase until 2044 to reach 69.3 million inhabitants. It would then decrease to 68.1 million inhabitants in 2070, i.e. 700,000 more than in 2021.

By 2070, the age pyramid would change significantly. The number of people aged 60 to 74 would remain stable, the number of people aged 75 or over would increase by 5.7 million, while the number of people under 60 would decrease by 5.0 million. Driven by the increase in the number of people aged 75 or over, the share of people aged 65 or over in the population is expected to rise sharply, from 21% to 29%. It would thus grow at the same rate as in the past, between 1972 and 2021.

It is almost certain that the population will continue to age until 2040. The extent of this ageing varies little according to the assumptions used. In 2040, there would be 51 people aged 65 or over per 100 people aged 20 to 64, compared with 37 in 2021. Between 2040 and 2070, the evolution of this old-age dependency ratio is much more uncertain and depends more on the assumptions made.

Insee Première
No 1881
Paru le :Paru le29/11/2021
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Deaths set to surpass births from 2035 onwards

If recent demographic trends were to continue, France would have 68.1 million inhabitants by 1 January 2070, which is 700,000 more than in 2021 (Chart 1). In this baseline scenario (box), the risks of death broken down by gender and age would reduce at the same rate as over the 2010s, fertility would stabilise at 1.8 children per woman and the would be an additional 70,000 inhabitants per year.

Chart 1 - Population change from 1970 to 2070 (baseline scenario)

  • 1. For some years, an adjustment component is introduced to ensure consistency between, on the one hand, the change in the population of France deduced from the results of two censuses and, on the other hand, the components of this change, the natural balance and the migratory balance, estimated elsewhere. The last adjustment, linked to a change in the population census questionnaire in 2018, will be visible for 8 years, from 2015 to 2022, given the census method. It is therefore taken into account during the first two years of the projection, 2021 and 2022.
  • 2. Population change is the sum of the natural balance and the net migration.
  • Reading note: from 1 January 2021 to 1 January 2035, according to the baseline scenario, the population is set to increase by an average of 116,000 people (0.17%) per year.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France from 1970 to 1995, France excluding Mayotte from 1995 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates, vital statistics  and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Until 2035, the population is estimated to continue increasing by an average of 116,000 people per year, reaching 69.0 million inhabitants, based on a positive added to the positive net migration. The growth rate, of +0.2% per year, would be considerably lower than that seen over the last 50 years (+0.5% on average since 1970). As of 2035, deaths would outnumber births, resulting in a negative natural balance (Chart 2). Until 2044, the net migration would offset this natural deficit and the population would therefore continue to grow gently, reaching 69.3 million inhabitants. From 2044 onwards, this would no longer be the case and the population would fall at an average rate of 45,000 people (0.1%) per year, falling to 68.1 million inhabitants in 2070.

Chart 2 – Births, deaths and net migration from 1970 to 2070 (baseline scenario)

Chart 2 – Births, deaths and net migration from 1970 to 2070 (baseline scenario) - Reading note: in France, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 768,000 deaths and 660,000 births in 2070, and net migration would be 70,000 people.
Deaths Births Net migration Natural balance Population change1
1970 542,000 850,000 180,000 308,000 488,000
1971 554,000 881,000 143,000 327,000 470,000
1972 550,000 878,000 102,000 328,000 430,000
1973 559,000 857,000 106,000 298,000 405,000
1974 553,000 801,000 31,000 249,000 279,000
1975 560,000 745,000 14,000 185,000 198,000
1976 557,000 720,000 57,000 163,000 221,000
1977 536,000 745,000 44,000 209,000 253,000
1978 547,000 737,000 19,000 190,000 210,000
1979 542,000 757,000 35,000 216,000 250,000
1980 547,000 800,000 44,000 253,000 297,000
1981 555,000 805,000 56,000 251,000 306,000
1982 543,000 797,000 61,000 254,000 315,000
1983 560,000 749,000 56,000 189,000 245,000
1984 542,000 760,000 45,000 217,000 262,000
1985 552,000 768,000 38,000 216,000 254,000
1986 547,000 778,000 39,000 232,000 271,000
1987 527,000 768,000 44,000 240,000 284,000
1988 525,000 771,000 57,000 247,000 304,000
1989 529,000 765,000 71,000 236,000 307,000
1990 526,000 762,000 80,000 236,000 316,000
1991 525,000 759,000 90,000 234,000 324,000
1992 522,000 744,000 90,000 222,000 312,000
1993 532,000 712,000 70,000 179,000 249,000
1994 520,000 711,000 50,000 191,000 241,000
1995 532,000 730,000 40,000 198,000 238,000
1996 536,000 734,000 35,000 199,000 234,000
1997 530,000 727,000 40,000 196,000 236,000
1998 534,000 738,000 45,000 204,000 249,000
1999 547,000 776,000 63,000 229,000 291,000
2000 541,000 807,000 72,000 267,000 339,000
2001 541,000 803,000 87,000 262,000 349,000
2002 545,000 793,000 97,000 248,000 345,000
2003 562,000 793,000 102,000 231,000 333,000
2004 519,000 799,000 105,000 280,000 385,000
2005 538,000 807,000 92,000 269,000 361,000
2006 527,000 829,000 112,000 302,000 415,000
2007 531,000 819,000 74,000 288,000 361,000
2008 543,000 828,000 57,000 286,000 343,000
2009 549,000 825,000 32,000 276,000 308,000
2010 551,000 833,000 39,000 282,000 320,000
2011 545,000 823,000 30,000 278,000 308,000
2012 570,000 821,000 72,000 251,000 324,000
2013 569,000 812,000 100,000 242,000 342,000
2014 559,000 819,000 32,000 259,000 292,000
2015 594,000 799,000 40,000 205,000 246,000
2016 594,000 784,000 65,000 190,000 255,000
2017 606,000 770,000 155,000 163,000 318,000
2018 610,000 759,000 87,000 149,000 236,000
2019 613,000 753,000 87,000 140,000 227,000
2020 669,000 736,000 87,000 67,000 154,000
2021 648,000 721,000 70,000 72,000 142,000
2022 627,000 718,000 70,000 91,000 161,000
2023 633,000 716,000 70,000 83,000 153,000
2024 639,000 713,000 70,000 73,000 143,000
2025 646,000 710,000 70,000 65,000 135,000
2026 652,000 709,000 70,000 57,000 127,000
2027 659,000 708,000 70,000 49,000 119,000
2028 665,000 707,000 70,000 42,000 112,000
2029 672,000 708,000 70,000 36,000 106,000
2030 680,000 709,000 70,000 29,000 99,000
2031 687,000 710,000 70,000 23,000 93,000
2032 696,000 712,000 70,000 16,000 86,000
2033 705,000 714,000 70,000 9,000 79,000
2034 714,000 716,000 70,000 2,000 72,000
2035 724,000 718,000 70,000 –6,000 64,000
2036 734,000 720,000 70,000 –14,000 56,000
2037 744,000 722,000 70,000 –22,000 48,000
2038 754,000 724,000 70,000 –30,000 40,000
2039 763,000 726,000 70,000 –37,000 33,000
2040 772,000 727,000 70,000 –45,000 25,000
2041 779,000 727,000 70,000 –52,000 18,000
2042 785,000 726,000 70,000 –59,000 11,000
2043 790,000 725,000 70,000 –65,000 5,000
2044 793,000 723,000 70,000 –70,000 0
2045 796,000 720,000 70,000 –76,000 –6,000
2046 797,000 717,000 70,000 –81,000 –11,000
2047 798,000 712,000 70,000 –86,000 –16,000
2048 798,000 707,000 70,000 –91,000 –21,000
2049 798,000 702,000 70,000 –96,000 –26,000
2050 798,000 697,000 70,000 –101,000 –31,000
2051 797,000 691,000 70,000 –106,000 –36,000
2052 797,000 685,000 70,000 –112,000 –42,000
2053 797,000 679,000 70,000 –118,000 –48,000
2054 797,000 674,000 70,000 –123,000 –53,000
2055 796,000 669,000 70,000 –128,000 –58,000
2056 796,000 664,000 70,000 –132,000 –62,000
2057 796,000 660,000 70,000 –135,000 –65,000
2058 795,000 658,000 70,000 –137,000 –67,000
2059 794,000 656,000 70,000 –139,000 –69,000
2060 793,000 654,000 70,000 –139,000 –69,000
2061 791,000 653,000 70,000 –138,000 –68,000
2062 790,000 653,000 70,000 –136,000 –66,000
2063 787,000 654,000 70,000 –134,000 –64,000
2064 785,000 654,000 70,000 –131,000 –61,000
2065 782,000 655,000 70,000 –127,000 –57,000
2066 779,000 656,000 70,000 –123,000 –53,000
2067 776,000 657,000 70,000 –119,000 –49,000
2068 773,000 658,000 70,000 –115,000 –45,000
2069 771,000 659,000 70,000 –111,000 –41,000
2070 768,000 660,000 70,000 –108,000 –38,000
  • 1. Population change is the sum of the natural balance and net migration.
  • Reading note: in France, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 768,000 deaths and 660,000 births in 2070, and net migration would be 70,000 people.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1998, France excluding Mayotte from 1999 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates, vital statistics and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Chart 2 – Births, deaths and net migration from 1970 to 2070 (baseline scenario)

  • 1. Population change is the sum of the natural balance and net migration.
  • Reading note: in France, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 768,000 deaths and 660,000 births in 2070, and net migration would be 70,000 people.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1998, France excluding Mayotte from 1999 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates, vital statistics and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Fertility and migration have the greatest impact on population change

Births, deaths and migration are the three components of changes in the number of inhabitants from one year to the next. Several alternative scenarios to the baseline projection scenario have been considered: these equate to a change in the assumptions for fertility, mortality or migration and allows to measure the impact of these assumptions on future population change.

The change in the number of inhabitants in France between now and 2070 primarily depends on the assumptions for fertility and net migration. If the were to increase to 2.00 children per woman, the natural balance would remain positive until 2046 and, by 2070, France would have 4.1 million inhabitants more than estimated under the baseline scenario, in which the total fertility rate is stable at 1.80 children per woman (Chart 3). If the total fertility rate were to decrease to 1.60 children per woman, the natural balance would become negative from 2027 onwards, leading to 4.0 million fewer inhabitants in 2070. Assumptions on net migration create a similarly strong variation in the number of inhabitants between now and 2070. If the net migration in France were to exceed the baseline scenario by 50,000, i.e. positive net migration of 120,000 people per year, there would be an additional 4.1 million inhabitants in 2070. If it were to fall below the baseline scenario by 50,000 (net migration of +20,000 people per year), there would be 4.0 million fewer. Lastly, if, in 2070, was 3.5 years longer or shorter than that of the baseline scenario, there would be 2.4 million more or fewer inhabitants in 2070, respectively. If all the negative developments in population growth (lower fertility, life expectancy and net migration) were to combine (“low population” scenario), the population would fall from 2027 onwards and would be 58.0 million in 2070, i.e. the same level as in 1990. Inversely, if all the positive developments were to combine (“high population” scenario), the population would increase at a steady rate throughout the period and would reach 79.1 million by 2070.

Chart 3 - Population from now to 2070 according to the scenarios

million inhabitants
Chart 3 - Population from now to 2070 according to the scenarios (million inhabitants) - Reading note: on 1 January 2070, there would be 68.1 million inhabitants in France under the baseline scenario, and 58.0 million under the low population scenario.
Baseline scenario Low fertility High fertility Low life expectancy High life expectancy Low net migration High net migration Low population High population
2021 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.4
2022 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.6 67.4 67.6
2023 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.6 67.7 67.6 67.8 67.5 67.8
2024 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.7 67.9 67.7 68.0 67.6 68.1
2025 68.0 67.9 68.0 67.9 68.1 67.7 68.2 67.6 68.3
2026 68.1 68.0 68.1 68.0 68.2 67.8 68.4 67.6 68.6
2027 68.2 68.1 68.3 68.1 68.4 67.9 68.5 67.6 68.8
2028 68.3 68.2 68.5 68.1 68.6 67.9 68.7 67.6 69.1
2029 68.4 68.2 68.6 68.2 68.7 68.0 68.9 67.6 69,4
2030 68.6 68.3 68.8 68.3 68.9 68.0 69.1 67.5 69.7
2031 68.7 68.3 69.0 68.4 69.0 68.1 69.2 67.4 69.9
2032 68.7 68.3 69.2 68.4 69.1 68.1 69.4 67.3 70.2
2033 68.8 68.3 69.3 68.4 69.3 68.1 69.6 67.2 70.5
2034 68.9 68.3 69.5 68.5 69,4 68.1 69.7 67.1 70.8
2035 69.0 68.3 69.6 68.5 69.5 68.1 69.9 67.0 71.1
2036 69.0 68.3 69.8 68.5 69.6 68.1 70.0 66.8 71.4
2037 69.1 68.3 69.9 68.5 69.8 68.1 70.1 66.7 71.6
2038 69.2 68.2 70.1 68.5 69.9 68.0 70.3 66.5 71.9
2039 69.2 68.2 70.2 68.5 70.0 68.0 70.4 66.3 72.2
2040 69.2 68.2 70.3 68.5 70.1 68.0 70.5 66.2 72.4
2041 69.3 68.1 70.4 68.4 70.1 67.9 70.6 66.0 72.7
2042 69.3 68.0 70.5 68.4 70.2 67.8 70.7 65.8 72.9
2043 69.3 68.0 70.6 68.3 70.3 67.8 70.8 65.6 73.2
2044 69.3 67.9 70.7 68.3 70.4 67.7 70.9 65.3 73.4
2045 69.3 67.8 70.7 68.2 70.4 67.6 71.0 65.1 73.7
2046 69.3 67.7 70.8 68.1 70.5 67.5 71.1 64.9 73.9
2047 69.3 67.6 70.9 68.1 70.5 67.4 71.1 64.7 74.1
2048 69.3 67.5 71.0 68.0 70.6 67.3 71.2 64.4 74.3
2049 69.2 67.4 71.0 67.9 70.6 67.2 71.3 64.2 74.5
2050 69.2 67.3 71.1 67.8 70.6 67.1 71.4 63.9 74.7
2051 69.2 67.2 71.1 67.7 70.7 67.0 71.4 63.7 74.9
2052 69.1 67.1 71.2 67.6 70.7 66.9 71.5 63.4 75.1
2053 69.1 67.0 71.2 67.5 70.7 66.7 71.5 63.2 75.3
2054 69.1 66.8 71.3 67.4 70.7 66.6 71.6 62.9 75.5
2055 69.0 66.7 71.3 67.3 70.7 66.5 71.6 62.6 75.7
2056 68.9 66.6 71.3 67.2 70.7 66.3 71.6 62.3 75.9
2057 68.9 66.4 71.4 67.1 70.7 66.2 71.7 62.0 76.1
2058 68.8 66.2 71.4 67.0 70.7 66.0 71.7 61.7 76.3
2059 68.7 66.1 71.4 66.9 70.7 65.8 71.7 61.4 76.5
2060 68.7 65.9 71.5 66.7 70.6 65.7 71.8 61.1 76.7
2061 68.6 65.7 71.5 66.6 70.6 65.5 71.8 60.8 76.9
2062 68.5 65.5 71.6 66.5 70.6 65.3 71.8 60.5 77.1
2063 68.5 65.4 71.6 66.4 70.6 65.2 71.9 60.2 77.3
2064 68.4 65.2 71.7 66.3 70.6 65.0 71.9 59.9 77.6
2065 68.3 65.0 71.8 66.2 70.6 64.9 72.0 59.5 77.8
2066 68.3 64.8 71.8 66.1 70.6 64.7 72.0 59.2 78.0
2067 68.2 64.6 71.9 66.0 70.5 64.5 72.1 58.9 78.3
2068 68.2 64.5 72.0 65.9 70.5 64.4 72.1 58.6 78.6
2069 68.1 64.3 72.1 65.8 70.5 64.2 72.2 58.3 78.8
2070 68.1 64.1 72.2 65.7 70.5 64.1 72.3 58.0 79.1
  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, there would be 68.1 million inhabitants in France under the baseline scenario, and 58.0 million under the low population scenario.
  • Coverage: France.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Chart 3 - Population from now to 2070 according to the scenarios

  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, there would be 68.1 million inhabitants in France under the baseline scenario, and 58.0 million under the low population scenario.
  • Coverage: France.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

By 2070: +5.7 million people aged 75 or over, –5.0 million under 60s

Under the baseline scenario, the number of inhabitants in 2070 would be relatively similar to that of 2021 (68.1 million compared with 67.4 million), but the age structure would be very different (Chart 4). The number of inhabitants aged 75 or over would increase by 5.7 million over this period, while the number of under 60s would fall by almost the same amount (–5.0 million). The number of people aged between 60 and 74 would remain stable. Under this scenario, the population in France would thus be ageing, due to the combined effect of the rise in the number of older people and the fall in the number of children and adults under 60. The widening of the top of the age pyramid is explained by several factors. First, with the rise in life expectancy that has already taken place, and even if it were not to increase any further, there would be a greater number of older people in 2070. Secondly, the rise in future life expectancy, if the trends were to continue, would also lead to an increase in the number of people reaching an advanced age. Lastly, almost all people aged 75 or over in 2070, born in or before 1995, belong to larger generations than those of the same age in 2021 (born before 1946 and therefore before the baby boom). The number of people aged 60-74 would be similar in 2021 and 2070, as the rise in life expectancy would offset the smaller size of these generations. Lastly, the narrowing of the middle and bottom of the pyramid would be due to the replacement of the last generations of the baby boom, born before 1975 and aged 46 to 59 on 1 January 2021, by the smaller generations born in the 2010s. What is more, the generations born from 2021 onwards, who will be under 49 in 2070, will be smaller as, under the baseline scenario, the total fertility rate would be 1.8 children per woman, which is, more often than not, lower than its past level.

Chart 4 – Population by gender and age in 1970, 2021 and 2070

Chart 4 – Population by gender and age in 1970, 2021 and 2070 - Reading note: on 1 January 2070, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 403,000 women aged 69 in France.
Age Men Women
1970 2021 2070 1970 2021 2070
0 423,200 352,800 338,200 405,000 338,900 321,700
1 419,400 364,000 337,900 402,600 350,600 321,400
2 421,600 369,600 337,700 402,900 354,000 321,100
3 432,800 377,300 337,400 414,200 363,800 320,800
4 436,300 388,500 337,200 416,900 373,100 320,500
5 443,600 399,500 337,400 425,000 382,900 320,800
6 438,500 409,400 338,000 422,200 396,900 321,500
7 426,200 415,700 339,200 409,100 398,100 322,900
8 432,600 425,300 341,200 415,600 405,000 325,400
9 424,500 426,300 344,200 408,300 410,300 328,600
10 430,100 437,000 347,800 413,800 420,400 332,100
11 422,100 432,400 351,800 406,800 413,700 335,800
12 424,600 437,200 356,300 409,300 416,500 339,700
13 421,900 431,900 361,700 406,400 412,600 344,300
14 420,700 439,200 367,700 406,000 420,000 349,300
15 421,900 432,700 374,200 407,500 411,000 354,300
16 413,000 430,700 379,800 402,000 408,400 358,200
17 420,000 425,900 383,100 411,500 404,600 359,800
18 419,100 423,200 383,600 408,700 400,600 359,000
19 437,000 423,900 381,800 425,300 400,100 356,800
20 438,700 424,100 379,200 424,800 401,000 354,300
21 442,500 394,600 376,100 427,100 376,600 351,900
22 444,800 385,200 373,000 422,800 373,400 350,100
23 426,300 369,700 370,200 402,100 363,200 349,400
24 327,300 370,000 368,100 305,600 369,200 349,200
25 325,200 365,500 366,700 302,300 367,000 349,700
26 321,600 353,600 366,300 299,200 361,500 351,000
27 301,400 355,700 366,800 280,200 363,900 353,400
28 274,100 372,800 368,300 254,500 384,100 356,600
29 291,600 381,500 369,900 271,600 393,400 360,100
30 313,800 391,000 371,400 293,100 405,300 363,300
31 313,800 390,100 372,800 294,000 412,700 366,100
32 316,900 396,300 374,000 297,800 419,400 368,300
33 323,200 396,500 375,000 305,200 421,900 370,200
34 322,200 402,800 375,900 305,700 430,200 372,000
35 335,800 402,400 376,900 319,800 430,100 373,600
36 331,600 400,300 377,800 317,000 425,700 375,000
37 347,100 396,500 378,600 332,600 421,300 376,100
38 345,400 421,500 379,400 331,400 443,900 377,000
39 357,000 425,300 380,000 342,700 446,600 377,700
40 339,700 429,900 377,900 327,400 451,200 375,800
41 341,400 407,500 376,000 331,400 425,900 374,300
42 335,600 399,700 374,600 328,200 414,100 373,100
43 336,200 402,200 373,700 332,200 414,200 372,400
44 333,900 391,100 373,400 333,000 404,200 372,300
45 324,500 405,800 373,800 327,000 415,000 372,900
46 323,700 426,100 374,500 328,100 435,600 373,900
47 323,300 446,300 375,000 330,100 459,800 374,300
48 330,000 457,400 375,800 339,100 467,000 375,200
49 338,300 455,700 382,400 347,200 464,200 383,200
50 204,300 444,500 392,000 211,100 455,100 393,100
51 179,700 437,100 396,200 187,700 449,200 395,200
52 158,200 429,200 401,100 167,200 446,200 402,300
53 149,000 427,900 408,200 158,300 443,400 407,600
54 184,200 436,900 414,900 197,200 454,600 413,400
55 270,500 436,800 420,600 293,300 455,600 423,200
56 272,500 438,200 421,600 295,400 461,200 420,800
57 273,600 430,600 426,700 298,400 455,700 423,900
58 253,300 415,600 423,400 278,600 441,000 425,400
59 264,400 414,000 429,500 293,500 441,500 431,900
60 257,000 407,800 420,900 288,900 440,200 422,600
61 254,500 403,400 420,400 289,800 437,600 421,900
62 241,300 390,700 410,300 278,500 429,400 414,900
63 239,000 386,500 411,300 279,500 426,000 418,400
64 232,400 380,000 398,900 275,100 424,000 406,100
65 224,400 372,800 391,900 271,500 420,800 401,200
66 216,000 369,700 384,500 265,900 416,500 397,700
67 212,400 360,400 382,300 266,900 408,100 396,500
68 200,400 362,300 384,500 259,400 412,800 399,100
69 182,400 351,300 387,400 244,500 400,500 403,000
70 169,900 360,800 362,700 236,100 412,400 382,800
71 152,300 350,000 356,200 224,500 404,600 381,200
72 139,800 346,200 344,100 219,400 401,100 371,600
73 126,400 334,900 343,900 213,100 391,000 375,500
74 104,200 310,600 338,100 188,400 368,700 371,800
75 96,900 228,700 325,500 184,400 278,400 363,000
76 88,800 220,700 322,100 175,400 270,300 359,700
77 78,000 210,200 329,800 157,200 261,400 370,900
78 72,800 189,900 329,400 148,200 240,700 371,000
79 63,800 163,800 328,400 133,100 212,900 372,600
80 59,200 164,300 318,500 127,100 219,700 370,100
81 52,000 164,400 313,600 114,500 228,200 366,300
82 44,600 154,400 303,200 101,400 219,600 358,600
83 37,200 143,100 296,400 87,900 212,200 355,000
84 32,200 134,300 283,500 78,000 206,900 343,300
85 26,800 118,900 268,200 66,700 195,900 327,600
86 20,900 110,700 249,900 54,000 190,400 310,400
87 17,400 95,700 247,700 46,400 173,400 312,000
88 13,300 86,400 231,100 36,400 167,500 297,300
89 10,300 72,800 212,300 29,200 149,600 281,500
90 7,200 61,600 179,800 21,700 136,500 246,200
91 5,500 46,900 154,900 17,000 111,800 219,200
92 3,700 37,500 133,600 12,300 97,300 197,100
93 2,500 28,800 108,700 9,400 80,000 169,800
94 1,600 21,500 92,700 6,200 66,800 150,900
95 1,200 16,300 78,500 4,700 53,100 133,700
96 700 11,500 64,900 2,700 40,900 116,700
97 500 7,800 51,100 1,800 31,000 96,300
98 200 4,900 38,200 900 23,000 76,200
99 100 3,500 27,300 500 16,400 57,900
100 100 2,100 19,400 1,000 11,500 43,300
101 0 800 13,500 0 4,500 31,700
102 0 500 9,400 0 2,600 22,900
103 0 300 6,600 0 1,600 16,700
104 0 100 4,400 0 900 11,900
105 0 100 2,900 0 600 8,300
106 or over 0 400 4,600 0 1,400 15,800
Total 24,655,500 32,560,300 33,522,000 25,872,700 34,846,900 34,581,700
  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 403,000 women aged 69 in France.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France in 1970, France in 2021 and 2070.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Chart 4 – Population by gender and age in 1970, 2021 and 2070

  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, according to the baseline scenario, there would be 403,000 women aged 69 in France.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France in 1970, France in 2021 and 2070.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

The age pyramid in 2070 would also be more balanced between men and women: 50.8% women compared with 51.7% in 2021. This re-balancing would occur in particular at ages with high mortality rates. Therefore, the proportion of women among 85 and overs would fall from 68% to 59%. Likewise, the proportion of women among centenarians would drop from 84% to 71%. Indeed, under the assumptions used, the differences in life expectancy between men and women would continue to narrow, as they did between 2010 and 2019, as women gained 0.9 years of life expectancy and men gained 1.7 years.

Between now and 2040, the proportion of 65 and overs would increase at the same rate as in the past

Between now and 2040, the proportion of 65 and overs would increase strongly, driven mainly by the increase in the number of 75 and overs, from 21% to 26%, a rise of 5 points (Chart 5). It would therefore grow at the same rate as it did from 2002 to 2021, a period of the same length (from 16% to 21%). Indeed, one sub-section of the baby boom generation, those aged 65 to 74, had already moved into the senior citizen bracket before 2021.

Chart 5a - Population structure by age from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios

%
Chart 5a - Population structure by age from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios (%) - Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the baseline scenario, 29% of the population in France would be aged 65 or over.
Baseline scenario Young population Aged population
0-19 years 20-64 years 65 years or over 0-19 years 20-64 years 65 years or over 0-19 years 20-64 years 65 years or over
1970 33.1 54.0 12.8 33.1 54.0 12.8 33.1 54.0 12.8
1971 32.9 54.2 12.9 32.9 54.2 12.9 32.9 54.2 12.9
1972 32.7 54.2 13.0 32.7 54.2 13.0 32.7 54.2 13.0
1973 32.6 54.3 13.1 32.6 54.3 13.1 32.6 54.3 13.1
1974 32.4 54.4 13.3 32.4 54.4 13.3 32.4 54.4 13.3
1975 32.1 54.5 13.4 32.1 54.5 13.4 32.1 54.5 13.4
1976 31.8 54.6 13.5 31.8 54.6 13.5 31.8 54.6 13.5
1977 31.5 54.9 13.6 31.5 54.9 13.6 31.5 54.9 13.6
1978 31.2 55.0 13.8 31.2 55.0 13.8 31.2 55.0 13.8
1979 30.9 55.2 13.9 30.9 55.2 13.9 30.9 55.2 13.9
1980 30.6 55.4 14.0 30.6 55.4 14.0 30.6 55.4 14.0
1981 30.3 55.9 13.8 30.3 55.9 13.8 30.3 55.9 13.8
1982 30.0 56.5 13.5 30.0 56.5 13.5 30.0 56.5 13.5
1983 29.8 57.0 13.2 29.8 57.0 13.2 29.8 57.0 13.2
1984 29.5 57.6 12.9 29.5 57.6 12.9 29.5 57.6 12.9
1985 29.2 58.0 12.8 29.2 58.0 12.8 29.2 58.0 12.8
1986 28.9 58.1 13.0 28.9 58.1 13.0 28.9 58.1 13.0
1987 28.6 58.1 13.3 28.6 58.1 13.3 28.6 58.1 13.3
1988 28.3 58.2 13.5 28.3 58.2 13.5 28.3 58.2 13.5
1989 28.1 58.2 13.7 28.1 58.2 13.7 28.1 58.2 13.7
1990 27.8 58.3 13.9 27.8 58.3 13.9 27.8 58.3 13.9
1991 27.7 58.3 14.0 27,7 58.3 14.0 27.7 58.3 14.0
1992 27.4 58.4 14.2 27.4 58.4 14.2 27.4 58.4 14.2
1993 27.0 58.6 14.4 27.0 58.6 14.4 27.0 58.6 14.4
1994 26.7 58.7 14.6 26.7 58.7 14.6 26.7 58.7 14.6
1995 26.4 58.7 14.9 26.4 58.7 14.9 26.4 58.7 14.9
1996 26.3 58.6 15.1 26.3 58.6 15.1 26.3 58.6 15.1
1997 26.2 58.5 15.3 26.2 58.5 15.3 26.2 58.5 15.3
1998 26.0 58.4 15.5 26.0 58.4 15.5 26.0 58.4 15.5
1999 25.9 58.4 15.7 25.9 58.4 15.7 25.9 58.4 15.7
2000 25.8 58.4 15.8 25.8 58.4 15.8 25.8 58.4 15.8
2001 25.7 58.4 15.9 25.7 58.4 15.9 25.7 58.4 15.9
2002 25.5 58.4 16.0 25.5 58.4 16.0 25.5 58.4 16.0
2003 25.4 58.5 16.1 25.4 58.5 16.1 25.4 58.5 16.1
2004 25.4 58.4 16.2 25.4 58.4 16.2 25.4 58.4 16.2
2005 25.3 58.4 16.3 25.3 58.4 16.3 25.3 58.4 16.3
2006 25.1 58.5 16.4 25.1 58.5 16.4 25.1 58.5 16.4
2007 25.0 58.6 16.3 25.0 58.6 16.3 25.0 58.6 16.3
2008 24.9 58.7 16.4 24.9 58.7 16.4 24.9 58.7 16.4
2009 24.8 58.7 16.5 24.8 58.7 16.5 24.8 58.7 16.5
2010 24.8 58.6 16.6 24.8 58.6 16.6 24.8 58.6 16.6
2011 24.7 58.6 16.7 24.7 58.6 16.7 24.7 58.6 16.7
2012 24.6 58.3 17.1 24.6 58.3 17.1 24.6 58.3 17.1
2013 24.5 57.9 17.6 24.5 57.9 17.6 24.5 57.9 17.6
2014 24.6 57.4 18.0 24.6 57.4 18.0 24.6 57.4 18.0
2015 24.6 57.0 18.4 24.6 57.0 18.4 24.6 57.0 18.4
2016 24.6 56.6 18.9 24.6 56.6 18.9 24.6 56.6 18.9
2017 24.4 56.3 19.3 24.4 56.3 19.3 24.4 56.3 19.3
2018 24.4 56.0 19.7 24.4 56.0 19.7 24.4 56.0 19.7
2019 24.2 55.8 20.0 24.2 55.8 20.0 24.2 55.8 20.0
2020 24.1 55.5 20.4 24.1 55.5 20.4 24.1 55.5 20.4
2021 23.9 55.4 20.7 23.9 55.4 20.7 23.9 55.4 20.7
2022 23.8 55.2 21.1 23.8 55.2 21.0 23.7 55.2 21.1
2023 23.6 55.0 21.4 23.6 55.0 21.3 23.6 54.9 21.5
2024 23.5 54.8 21.8 23.5 54.8 21.6 23.4 54.7 21.9
2025 23.3 54.6 22.1 23.4 54.6 22.0 23.2 54.5 22.3
2026 23.2 54.4 22.5 23.3 54.5 22.3 23.0 54.3 22.7
2027 23.0 54.2 22.8 23.2 54.3 22.6 22.8 54.1 23.1
2028 22.8 54.1 23.1 23.0 54.1 22.8 22.5 54.0 23.5
2029 22.6 53.9 23.5 22.9 54.0 23.1 22.2 53.8 23.9
2030 22.4 53.7 23.9 22.8 53.8 23.4 22.0 53.7 24.4
2031 22.2 53.6 24.2 22.8 53.6 23.6 21.6 53.6 24.8
2032 22.0 53.5 24.5 22.7 53.5 23.9 21.3 53.5 25.2
2033 21.8 53.4 24.8 22.6 53.3 24.0 21.0 53.4 25.6
2034 21.7 53.3 25.0 22.6 53.2 24.2 20.7 53.3 26.0
2035 21.5 53.2 25.3 22.6 53.1 24.4 20.5 53.2 26.3
2036 21.4 53.0 25.6 22.6 52.9 24.5 20.2 53.1 26.7
2037 21.3 52.9 25.8 22.6 52.7 24.7 20.0 52.9 27.1
2038 21.2 52.7 26.1 22.7 52.5 24.8 19.8 52.8 27.5
2039 21.2 52.5 26.3 22.8 52.3 24.9 19.6 52.6 27.8
2040 21.2 52.4 26.5 22.9 52.1 25.0 19.4 52.5 28.1
2041 21.2 52.3 26.5 23.0 52.0 25.0 19.3 52.4 28.3
2042 21.2 52.2 26.6 23.2 51.9 24.9 19.2 52.4 28.4
2043 21.2 52.1 26.6 23.4 51.8 24.8 19.1 52.3 28.6
2044 21.3 52.0 26.7 23.5 51.7 24.8 19.0 52.2 28.8
2045 21.3 51.9 26.8 23.7 51.6 24.7 19.0 52.0 29.0
2046 21.4 51.7 26.9 23.8 51.4 24.8 18.9 51.8 29.2
2047 21.4 51.6 27.0 23.9 51.3 24.8 18.9 51.6 29.5
2048 21.4 51.4 27.2 24.0 51.2 24.8 18.9 51.4 29.7
2049 21.5 51.3 27.2 24.0 51.2 24.8 18.9 51.2 29.9
2050 21.5 51.2 27.3 24.0 51.2 24.7 18.9 51.0 30.1
2051 21.5 51.1 27.4 24.0 51.2 24.7 18.9 50.8 30.3
2052 21.4 51.0 27.5 24.0 51.2 24.7 18.8 50.6 30.6
2053 21.4 51.0 27.6 24.0 51.3 24.7 18.8 50.4 30.8
2054 21.4 50.9 27.7 24.0 51.3 24.7 18.8 50.2 31.0
2055 21.3 50.8 27.8 23.9 51.4 24.7 18.7 50.0 31.3
2056 21.3 50.8 27.9 23.9 51.4 24.7 18.7 49.9 31.5
2057 21.2 50.8 28.0 23.8 51.5 24.6 18.6 49.7 31.7
2058 21.1 50.8 28.1 23.8 51.6 24.6 18.5 49.6 31.9
2059 21.1 50.8 28.1 23.7 51.7 24.5 18.4 49.6 32.0
2060 21.0 50.9 28.1 23.7 51.9 24.4 18.3 49.5 32.2
2061 20.9 51.0 28.1 23.6 52.0 24.4 18.2 49.5 32.3
2062 20.8 51.0 28.2 23.6 52.1 24.3 18.1 49.4 32.5
2063 20.7 51.0 28.2 23.5 52.2 24.2 17.9 49.4 32.7
2064 20.7 51.1 28.3 23.5 52.3 24.2 17.8 49.3 32.9
2065 20.6 51.1 28.3 23.5 52.4 24.2 17.7 49.3 33.0
2066 20.5 51.0 28.5 23.4 52.3 24.2 17.5 49.2 33.3
2067 20.4 51.0 28.6 23.4 52.3 24.2 17.4 49.1 33.5
2068 20.4 51.0 28.7 23.4 52.3 24.2 17.3 49.0 33.8
2069 20.3 50.9 28.8 23.4 52.3 24.2 17.1 48.9 34.0
2070 20.2 50.9 28.9 23.5 52.3 24.3 17.0 48.7 34.2
  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the baseline scenario, 29% of the population in France would be aged 65 or over.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1990, France excluding Mayotte from 1991 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Chart 5a - Population structure by age from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios

  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the baseline scenario, 29% of the population in France would be aged 65 or over.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1990, France excluding Mayotte from 1991 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

The growth in the number of people aged 65 or above would slow from 2040 onwards, with the last baby boom generation, born in 1974, moving into this age bracket. In 2070, the proportion of 65 and overs would be 29%, an increase of 8 points compared to 2021. This rise would be the same as that seen between 1972 and 2021, a period of the same length: from 13% to 21% (+8 points as well).

From now to 2040, the continued ageing of the population is unavoidable

From now to 2040, the continued ageing of the population is almost certain, and its scale known. Indeed, it depends primarily on the past, that is to say the increase in life expectancy that has already occurred, as well as the increasing age of the generations that have already been born, in particular those of the baby boom, much more so than the future increase in life expectancy. Under the baseline scenario, the would rise from 37 in 2021 to 51 in 2040 (Chart 6). Even under scenarios with less ageing, it would increase in almost similar proportions from now until 2040: it would reach 49 under the scenario in which life expectancy remains at its 2019 level, or even 48 under the “young population” scenario, which combines small increases in life expectancy with a higher level of immigration of people aged 20 to 64. Under the “aged population” scenario, the ageing of the population would also be similar to that given under the baseline scenario in 2040, with a ratio of 53.

Chart 6 - Old-age dependency ratio from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios

%
Chart 6 - Old-age dependency ratio from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios (%) - Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the aged population scenario, there would be 70 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64.
Passed baseline scenario low life expectancy high life expectancy young population aged population constant life expectancy
1970 23.7
1971 23.9
1972 24.0
1973 24.2
1974 24.4
1975 24.6
1976 24.8
1977 24.8
1978 25.1
1979 25.2
1980 25.3
1981 24.7
1982 23.8
1983 23.1
1984 22.5
1985 22.0
1986 22.5
1987 22.9
1988 23.2
1989 23.6
1990 23.9
1991 24.0
1992 24.3
1993 24.6
1994 24.9
1995 25.3
1996 25.7
1997 26.2
1998 26.6
1999 26.8
2000 27.1
2001 27.3
2002 27.5
2003 27.6
2004 27.7
2005 27.9
2006 28.0
2007 27.8
2008 27.9
2009 28.1
2010 28.3
2011 28.6
2012 29.4
2013 30.4
2014 31.3
2015 32.3
2016 33.3
2017 34.3
2018 35.1
2019 35.9
2020 36.8
2021 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4
2022 38.2 38.1 38.2 38.1 38.2 38.2
2023 38.9 38.8 39.1 38.8 39.1 38.9
2024 39.7 39.6 39.9 39.5 40.0 39.7
2025 40.5 40.3 40.8 40.2 40.9 40.4
2026 41.3 41.1 41.6 40.9 41.8 41.2
2027 42.1 41.7 42.5 41.5 42.7 41.8
2028 42.8 42.4 43.3 42.1 43.6 42.5
2029 43.6 43.1 44.2 42.8 44.5 43.2
2030 44.4 43.8 45.1 43.5 45.4 43.9
2031 45.1 44.5 45.9 44.1 46.3 44.5
2032 45.8 45.1 46.7 44.6 47.2 45.1
2033 46.4 45.6 47.4 45.1 47.9 45.6
2034 47.0 46.1 48.1 45.5 48.7 46.0
2035 47.6 46.5 48.8 45.9 49.5 46.5
2036 48.2 47.0 49.6 46.4 50.3 47.0
2037 48.9 47.6 50.4 46.9 51.2 47.5
2038 49.5 48.1 51.2 47.3 52.0 48.0
2039 50.1 48.5 51.9 47.7 52.9 48.4
2040 50.5 48.8 52.5 47.9 53.5 48.6
2041 50.8 48.9 52.9 48.0 53.9 48.7
2042 50.9 48.9 53.2 47.9 54.3 48.7
2043 51.1 49.0 53.6 48.0 54.7 48.7
2044 51.3 49.0 53.9 47.9 55.2 48.7
2045 51.6 49.1 54.3 48.0 55.7 48.7
2046 52.0 49.4 54.9 48.2 56.4 48.9
2047 52.5 49.7 55.5 48.3 57.2 49.1
2048 52.9 49.9 56.1 48.4 57.9 49.2
2049 53.1 50.0 56.4 48.3 58.4 49.2
2050 53.3 50.1 56.8 48.3 59.1 49.2
2051 53.6 50.2 57.3 48.2 59.7 49.2
2052 53.9 50.4 57.7 48.2 60.4 49.3
2053 54.2 50.5 58.2 48.2 61.1 49.3
2054 54.5 50.6 58.6 48.1 61.8 49.3
2055 54.7 50.7 59.0 48.1 62.5 49.3
2056 55.0 50.8 59.4 48.0 63.1 49.2
2057 55.1 50.9 59.7 47.8 63.7 49.1
2058 55.2 50.9 59.9 47.7 64.2 49.0
2059 55.2 50.7 60.0 47.4 64.6 48.7
2060 55.2 50.6 60.1 47.1 64.9 48.4
2061 55.2 50.5 60.3 46.9 65.3 48.2
2062 55.3 50.4 60.5 46.7 65.8 48.0
2063 55.3 50.3 60.6 46.4 66.1 47.8
2064 55.4 50.3 60.8 46.3 66.6 47.7
2065 55.5 50.3 61.1 46.2 67.0 47.5
2066 55.8 50.5 61.5 46.3 67.7 47.6
2067 56.0 50.6 61.9 46.3 68.4 47.6
2068 56.3 50.8 62.3 46.3 69.0 47.6
2069 56.5 50.9 62.6 46.3 69.6 47.6
2070 56.8 51.1 63.1 46.4 70.2 47.7
  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the aged population scenario, there would be 70 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1990, France excluding Mayotte from 1991 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Chart 6 - Old-age dependency ratio from 1970 to 2070 under various scenarios

  • Reading note: on 1 January 2070, under the aged population scenario, there would be 70 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64.
  • Coverage: Metropolitan France for years up to 1990, France excluding Mayotte from 1991 to 2013, France from 2014 onwards.
  • Source: INSEE, population estimates and baseline population projection scenario 2021-2070.

Between 2040 and 2070, the change in the old-age dependency ratio is much more uncertain. It could increase slightly under the baseline scenario (ratio of 57 in 2070), at a steadier rate under the “aged population” scenario (70) or decrease slightly under the “young population” scenario (46).

Box – How do we estimate the number of inhabitants in France in 2070?

INSEE makes population projections approximately every five years, using the component method that consists in separately projecting the changes in fertility, mortality and migrations, before looking at the change in population that results. For each component, recent trends (excluding the Covid-19 pandemic) are extended to develop a baseline assumption and alternative assumptions taking into account the uncertainties inherent in this exercise. A consultation has enabled us to collect opinions from 46 experts on the various options available for use. Their responses, together with the method used, are documented in Algava, Blanpain (2021a).

The baseline assumption is that of a stabilisation of the total fertility rate at 1.80 children per woman from 2022 onwards (it was 1.83 in 2020), and a continued rise in the average age at childbirth to 33 in 2052, at which point it is projected to stabilise. Under the low assumption, the total fertility rate would fall between now and 2030, before stabilising at 1.60 children per woman. Under the high assumption, the total fertility rate would increase between now and 2030, before stabilising at 2.00 children per woman, the same level as between 2006 and 2014. A working assumption, which is very low and similar to the current average fertility rate of the 27 EU nations, takes a total fertility rate of 1.50 from 2030 onwards.

The baseline mortality assumption is that the risks of death by gender and age will reduce at the same rate as over the last decade, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. 2010-2019. This applies to all generations, excluding those born between 1941 and 1955 for which the assumption used is that of a continued stagnation in mortality as observed to date [Blanpain, 2020]. These assumptions would lead to an increase in life expectancy at birth between now and 2070 of 4.9 years for women and 8.4 years for men, i.e. 90.0 and 87.5, respectively. Under the high assumption, life expectancy would be 3.5 years higher in 2070 (93.5 for women and 91.0 for men) and under the low assumption, 3.5 years lower (86.5 and 84.0), which is a faster/slower pace of reduction in mortality than that seen over the last decade. We have a working assumption based on a stagnation of life expectancy up to 2070 at its 2019 value (85.6 for women and 79.7 for men).

The net migration, which is the difference between the number of people coming into and leaving the country, is assumed to remain constant at +70,000 people per year up to 2070. Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding its level, there is quite a wide range between alternative assumptions: +20,000 people per year for the low assumption, +120,000 people per year for the high assumption and 0 (number of incoming and outgoing people offset each other) for the working assumption. It is the range within which the net migration has fluctuated for the majority of the last 50 years.

12 of the 30 scenarios combining the various assumptions are presented below:

  • the baseline scenario with the three baseline assumptions;
  • the six scenarios that only differ from the baseline scenario in one assumption: for example, in the high fertility scenario, the total fertility rate is 2.00, everything else remains the same as the baseline scenario;
  • the high population scenario, which combines the high assumptions of the three scenarios; the low population scenario, which is its opposite;
  • the aged population which combines the low fertility and migration and high life expectancy assumptions, and its inverse counterpart, the young population scenario;
  • the constant life expectancy scenario, which combines a stagnation of life expectancy at birth at its 2019 level with the baseline fertility and migration assumptions.

The full results of the scenarios are given in Algava, Blanpain (2021b).

Compared with the previous projection exercise, published in 2016, recent changes in fertility and life expectancy have led to a downward revision of the assumptions, causing a relatively considerable reduction in the projected population for 2070.

Publication rédigée par :Élisabeth Algava and Nathalie Blanpain (Insee)

Sources

The population projections for 2021-2070 consist in estimating the population numbers broken down by gender and age on 1 January of each year in France. The starting point is based on the population estimates and vital statistics [Papon, Beaumel, 2021].

On 1 January n+1, the number of inhabitants is equal to the population on 1 January of year n, plus the number of births and the net migration for year n, less the number of deaths for year n.

Définitions

The net migration is the difference between the number of people entering the country and the number of people leaving over the course of the year.

The natural balance is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over the course of the year.

The total fertility rate measures the number of children that a woman would have over her lifetime, if the fertility rates seen in the given year for each age were to stay the same. It is a synthetic indicator of fertility for one year.

Life expectancy at birth represents the average life span of a notional generation subject to the mortality conditions for each age in a given year. It is a synthetic indicator of mortality for a given year.

The old-age dependency ratio measures the number of people aged 65 or over, primarily retired, for every 100 people aged between 20 and 64, who primarily fall into age groups of professional activity.

The population projections for 2021-2070 consist in estimating the population numbers broken down by gender and age on 1 January of each year in France. The starting point is based on the population estimates and vital statistics [Papon, Beaumel, 2021].

On 1 January n+1, the number of inhabitants is equal to the population on 1 January of year n, plus the number of births and the net migration for year n, less the number of deaths for year n.

The net migration is the difference between the number of people entering the country and the number of people leaving over the course of the year.

The natural balance is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over the course of the year.

The total fertility rate measures the number of children that a woman would have over her lifetime, if the fertility rates seen in the given year for each age were to stay the same. It is a synthetic indicator of fertility for one year.

Life expectancy at birth represents the average life span of a notional generation subject to the mortality conditions for each age in a given year. It is a synthetic indicator of mortality for a given year.

The old-age dependency ratio measures the number of people aged 65 or over, primarily retired, for every 100 people aged between 20 and 64, who primarily fall into age groups of professional activity.

Learn more

Education tool for population projections

Algava É., Blanpain N., "Population projections 2021-2070 for France: method and assumptions", Working papers No. 2021-05, November 2021a.

Algava É., Blanpain N., "Projections de population 2021-2070 pour la France", Insee Résultats, November 2021b.

Papon S., Beaumel C., "Avec la pandémie de Covid-19, nette baisse de l’espérance de vie et chute du nombre de mariages", Insee Première No. 1846, March 2021.

Blanpain N., "La mortalité stagne à l’âge adulte pour les générations nées entre 1941 et 1955", Insee Première No. 1824, November 2020.

Blanpain N., Buisson G., "Projections de population à l’horizon 2070, deux fois plus de personnes de 75 ans ou plus qu’en 2013", Insee Première No. 1619, November 2016.