In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms slightly slowed down : +0.3% after +0.4%.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated (+0.4% after +0.3%), while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed down a bit (+0.5% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes kept increasing at the same pace: it contributed to GDP growth by +0.4% as in Q4 2018.

Imports accelerated (+1.4% after +1.1%) due to fuel imports whereas exports decelerated significantly (+0.4% after +2.0%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.3 points, after +0.3 points in Q4. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth again (+0.3 points after –0.2 points).

*This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Households’ gross disposable income (HGDI) slightly slowed down in Q1 2019 but has remained dynamic (+1.0% after +1.3%). The gross payroll received by households accelerated sharply (+1.1% after +0.6%) due to exceptional bonuses paid by some companies. Households’ social benefits also accelerated (+0.9% after +0.7%) due to the increase in the employment bonus combined with slightly less strict obtaining conditions. Social contributions paid by households kept on decreasing (–0.5% after –2.9%), thanks to the exemption of social contributions on overtime work. Conversely, taxes on income and wealth bounced back, mainly as an after-effect of the decrease in the housing tax during Q4 2018.

Households’ consumption prices has grown at the same past in Q1 2019 (+0.2% after +0.2%), so households’ purchasing power rose but slightly decelerated in Q1 2019 (+0.9% after +1.1%) in the same proportion as the HGDI. When measured per consumption unit, to be brought back to an individual level, it also decelerated (+0.7%, after +1.0%).

In Q1 2019, households’ consumption remained slightly dynamic (+0.4% after +0.3%), but still less than the HGDI purchasing power. Thus, their saving rate went up again: it stood at 15.3% after 14.9% in Q4 2018.

In Q1 2019, non-financial corporations’ profit ratio grew up significantly (it stood at 32.6% after 31.5%). The CICE (competitiveness and employment tax credit) has now been replaced by an exemption from employer social contributions. Thus, corporations benefit both from the exemptions from employer contribution and the CICE from 2018, resulting in a positive contribution to the profit ratio. Meanwhile, the negative contribution of the real wages, which has been boosted by the exceptional bonuses, was compensated by the positive effect of the productivity gains and the terms of trade.

In Q1 2019, general government net borrowing increased by 1 point, to 3.6% of the GDP after 2.6% in Q4 2018. Public expenditures slowed down (+0.3% after +0.7%) despite the dynamism of the social benefits, following the return at an average level of French contribution to the EU budget after a high fourth quarter. Meanwhile, revenues stepped back sharply (-1.6% after +1.0%): contribution earnings has been decreasing due to the replacement of the CICE, and company taxes are now decreasing after an important rise during the end of year.

The extent of the revisions compared to the previous estimate is typical at this time of year: it results from the benchmarking on the annual accounts revised on years 2016 to 2018 and from the updates of seasonal and working day adjustments as well as revision of indicators. GDP growth in Q1 2018 is thus revised by +0,1 points. Furthermore, the car sales profile in the second half of 2018 has been revised to better reflect household and company’s behavior, leading to a revision of consumption and investment in Q3 and Q4 2018, and thus a revision of GDP growth during Q4 2018. During Q1 2019, revisions in different aggregates offset each other.

The GDP growth for Q1 2019 is thus confirmed at +0.3%.