Insee Analyses Guadeloupe · December 2024 · n° 83

In 2020, the French West Indies and French Guiana are located at two ends of Caribbean demographic dynamics

In 2020, the population of the 40 territories of the Greater Caribbean, also known as the Caribbean (statistical area), is estimated at 301,271,000 inhabitants (sources). Over twenty years, this population has increased by an average of 1.2% per year, for a total of 63,021,000 additional inhabitants. More than 80% of this increase comes from the four most populated territories: Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Guatemala (chart 1). However, the relative population increase is higher in some small islands. Indeed, the three highest growth rates concern the Turks and Caicos Islands (+4.4% on average per year), the Dutch islands (Bonaire, Saba, Sint Eustatius) and the British Virgin Islands (+3.1% on average per year for both). In these territories, the growing demand for infrastructure, particularly in luxury tourism services, has not only created jobs but also attracted foreign workers from neighboring territories [Nam, 2016; learn more (7)].

Over the same period, the fourth highest growth rate in the Caribbean is that of French Guiana, with an annual population increase of 2.9% per year. The territory’s population increases due to a positive natural balance, driven by a high birth rate and low mortality. This growth occurs despite the departure of many young Guyanese, who leave the region to pursue higher education or seek employment [Jeanne-Rose, 2021; learn more (3)].

In twenty years, the population has decreased in six territories: the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe. These territories account for a small share of the Greater Caribbean population (1.4%). This decrease is particularly marked in the US Virgin Islands (-1.1% per year) and Puerto Rico (-0.8% per year). In the US Virgin Islands, the population decrease is mainly due to the closure of the Hovensa refinery, causing job losses and significant emigration of young people [United Nations, 2014; learn more (6)]. For Puerto Rico, historical ties with the United States partly explain high emigration flows, leading to a deficit migration balance [Mora et al., 2017; learn more (5)]. In addition, there iis a negative natural balance, driven by Caribbean lowest birth rate (6‰), with the one of Saint-Barthélemy (5‰). Furthermore, in 2017, hurricanes Irma and Maria successively hit these two territories, prompting many residents to seek refuge elsewhere [Nicolas et al., 2018; learn more (8)] [Rivera, 2020; learn more (3)]. In Saint-Vincent and the Grenadines, the population is also decreasing over the same period (-0.5% on average per year), slowed down by a negative migration balance since 2000 to which is added a negative natural balance in 2020. The total fertility rate (TFR) thus fell from 2.3 to 1.8 children per woman over the period, falling below the population renewal threshold, estimated at 2.1 children per woman.

In twenty years, the population in Martinique has decreased to a lesser extent (-0.3% on average per year). The territory has been experiencing a demographic decline since 2009, linked to a negative migration balance that weakens the natural balance [Jeanne-Rose, 2021; learn more (4)]. As in French Guiana, young people are leaving the territory, mainly towards mainland France. The deficit of young adults and in particular young women has an impact on generational renewal. It pulls the region’s birth curve downward. In Guadeloupe and Dominica, the demographic decline began slightly later (-0.1% on average per year). In Cuba, the population remained stable over the same period.

Caribbean territories have varied demographic dynamics. In order to establish a typology to describe them, a classification of the 40 territories in 2000 and 2020 (to understand) was carried out. It makes it possible to identify four groups in 2020: territories with a young population and a high birth rate, territories with a higher share of the working-age population, territories marked by the aging of the population, and finally a single territory which stand out by particularly high infant mortality and low life expectancy at birth (chart 2).

In 2020, eleven Caribbean territories, comprising 69% of the population and mainly located in Latin America, stand out for having a young population, high birth rates and a high TFR. Indeed, the average share of under -25s in this group is 45%, 2 points higher than caribbean average. As a result, the median age of these territories is low. Guatemala is specifically the youngest country in the Caribbean: one in two residents is at most 21.6 years old.

Population growth of this group is mainly based on a natural surplus, which means that the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. This dynamic reflects a high birth rate associated with a low mortality rate.

In 2020, the majority of territories in this group record birth rates exceeding the Caribbean average (16‰), including French Guiana, which has the highest rate (28‰). Among these eleven territories, most have a TFR above the threshold to ensure generational renewal: Guatemala, Guyana, French Guiana, Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Suriname and Venezuela. French Guiana's TFR (3.8 children per woman) is also the highest in the Caribbean. Only Belize (2.0), Mexico (2.0) and El Salvador (1.8) have an indicator below the threshold.

In 2000, three of these territories -French Guiana, Mexico and Venezuela- already shared similar profiles characterized by a young population and high birth rates. The eight other territories in this group were additionally characterized by high infant mortality and low life expectancy at birth. In twenty years, these eight territories have experienced an improvement in their living conditions, reflected in particular by a decrease in their infant mortality rate, especially marked in Guatemala (from 41‰ in 2000 to 19‰ in 2020) and Nicaragua (respectively 31‰ and 14‰). Life expectancy at birth has also increased. In Suriname, for example, women gained 8.6 years of life expectancy at birth and men 7.1 years, in the space of 20 years.

In 2020, 23 territories stand out for having a high proportion of people aged 25 to 59 years old. This age class characterizes the working-age population. It represents 49% of the population of this group, exceeding that of the Greater Caribbean by 4 points. The concerned territories represent 26% of the Caribbean population. They include both island and continental territories of Latin America.

The birth rate of these territories is lower than that of the Greater Caribbean (13‰ compared to 16‰) in 2020. Furthermore, with the exception of Panama, their TFR is below the generational renewal threshold. In particular, the TFR of Saint-Barthélémy is the lowest in the Caribbean (0.8). The level of these two indicators shows that these territories are moving towards a population structure with an increasing number of seniors. The share of people aged 60 and over in this group, two points higher than caribbean average, reflects this transition.

In 2000, twelve of these territories already had the same characteristics of preponderance of the working-age population. The other eleven territories had rather characteristics of the previous group: young people with a high birth rate. In these regions the share of young people under 25 years has fallen sharply over two decades, particularly in Saint Lucia (-17 points), as well as in Jamaica and Grenada (-15 points each).

Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are territories marked by the aging of their population. Together, they represent 1% of the Greater Caribbean population. The proportion of people aged 60 and over averages 12% in the Caribbean, but it rises to 24% in Saint-Martin and reaches 30% in Martinique and Puerto Rico. The demographic structure of these five territories explains a mortality rate that is also higher than the caribbean average. The US Virgin Islands especially have the highest mortality rate (16‰).

In 2020, this group of territories had 110 people aged 65 and over for every 100 young people under 20, an aging index of 1.1, while that of the Caribbean was 0.23. Puerto Rico presents the highest index in the Caribbean (1.15), followed by that of Martinique (1.05).

Emigration of young people partly explains the demographic dynamics of these territories. First of all, it leads to a demographic decline. Indeed, the five territories in this group have a negative migration balance, particularly Martinique and Saint-Martin where the deficit has increased over twenty years. In addition, the emigration of young people contributes to reduce the number of births, which aggravates the demographic decline. Thus, the US Virgin Islands, Martinique and Puerto Rico combine natural and migratory deficits. The combination of these effects has accelerated the aging of the population of these territories between 2000 and 2020, leading to the emergence of a new demographic dynamic which did not exist in the Caribbean in 2000.

In 2020, Haiti represents 4% of the Caribbean population. It is the only territory whose demographic dynamics remains marked by high infant mortality and very low life expectancy, whereas there were nine in 2000. The Haitian population remains young with a median age of 22.8 years in 2020. Its high birth rate (23‰) exceeds that of the Caribbean by 7 points, and its TFR (2.8 children per woman) is above the generational renewal threshold. However, the country stands out for a particularly high infant mortality rate (47‰), exceeding by 20 points that of the Dominican Republic, ranked second among the Caribbean territories. Moreover, life expectancy at birth in Haiti remains the lowest in the Caribbean in 2020, for both women (67.0 years) and men (60.7 years), as it already was 20 years earlier (59.9 years and 56.5 years, respectively).

Haiti is experiencing a unique situation within the Caribbean. For decades, it has been undergoing political and institutional crises [Therme, 2014; learn more (10)]. In addition, the territory has suffered from the passage of several hurricanes, notably in 2008 (four hurricanes) and three earthquakes, including a major one in January 2010, causing more than 200,000 deaths. These factors contribute to the emigration of the Haitian population, and consequently to the territory's migratory deficit. The growth of the Haitian population is solely driven by a natural surplus. The difficulties encountered by Haiti can also be measured by reading other indicators such as the Human Development Index (HDI), which places it last among the 25 Caribbean territories for which the HDI is available and 158th out of the 192 territories listed by the United Nations in the world. With an HDI of 0.557 in 2020, Haiti belongs to the “medium” human development category, according to the United Nations classification. In 2000, this index was 0.485, placing it then in the “low” human development category. Although Haiti’s HDI has improved over the past twenty years, the territory continues to face challenges in health, education, and living conditions. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, which stood at 1,283 dollars in 2020, also places Haiti last among the 34 Caribbean territories for which this indicator is available.

A classification was carried out using data from the United Nations and Insee, in order to highlight demographic profiles. The typology results from a principal component analysis grouping the following variables: birth rate, mortality rate, infant mortality rate, total fertility rate, share of people under 25 years old, share of 25-59 year-olds, share of people aged 60 or over, median age, life expectancy at birth for women, life expectancy at birth for men, share of women aged 15 to 49. The classification was carried out on data from the 40 territories for the years 2000 and 2020, resulting in a total of 80 data points.

For this study, the Caribbean area chosen is that of the Greater Caribbean, also called the Caribbean, which includes a group of territories covering not only the islands of the Caribbean Sea but also the surrounding coastal regions. The Greater Caribbean is divided into three major groups: the Greater West Indies, the Lesser West Indies and the coastal countries.Among the Greater West indies are Haiti, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, the Cayman Islands and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This group represents 13% of the population of the Greater Caribbean.

The Lesser West Indies include Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Barbados, Curaçao, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Aruba, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, the United States Virgin Islands (US Virgin Islands), Dominica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, the Dutch part of Saint Martin (Sint Maarten), the British Virgin Islands, the French island of Saint Martin, the Dutch islands (Bonaire, Saba, Sint Eustatius), Anguilla, and Saint Barthélemy. The population of this group represents 1% of the population of the Greater Caribbean.

The coastal countries located on the American continent are also part of the Greater Caribbean. French Guiana, in particular, has ties with Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Suriname and Belize. French Guiana also maintains relations with organizations such as the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), thus promoting cultural and economic exchanges with other Caribbean territories. The population of the latter group represents 86% of the population of the Greater Caribbean.