Informations Rapides ·
25 July 2024 · n° 183
In July 2024, the business climate in France has deteriorated strongly Business indicator - July 2024
In July 2024, the business climate in France has deteriorated strongly compared to June. At 94, the indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of the business managers from the main market sectors has lost five points and stands well below its long-term average (100). It has reached its lowest level since February 2021. All market sectors have contributed to this degradation.
The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2024. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this publication. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.
In July 2024, the business climate has strongly worsened
In July 2024, the business climate in France has deteriorated strongly compared to June. At 94, the indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of the business managers from the main market sectors has lost five points and stands well below its long-term average (100). It has reached its lowest level since February 2021. All market sectors have contributed to this degradation.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2024-07 | 93.9 |
| 2024-06 | 99.1 |
| 2024-05 | 99.6 |
| 2024-04 | 99.3 |
| 2024-03 | 100.0 |
| 2024-02 | 98.5 |
| 2024-01 | 98.9 |
| 2023-12 | 98.3 |
| 2023-11 | 97.9 |
| 2023-10 | 98.9 |
| 2023-09 | 100.3 |
| 2023-08 | 100.0 |
| 2023-07 | 100.2 |
| 2023-06 | 100.5 |
| 2023-05 | 100.3 |
| 2023-04 | 102.6 |
| 2023-03 | 102.9 |
| 2023-02 | 103.1 |
| 2023-01 | 102.2 |
| 2022-12 | 102.5 |
| 2022-11 | 102.3 |
| 2022-10 | 102.7 |
| 2022-09 | 102.5 |
| 2022-08 | 103.9 |
| 2022-07 | 103.4 |
| 2022-06 | 104.7 |
| 2022-05 | 106.3 |
| 2022-04 | 106.4 |
| 2022-03 | 107.1 |
| 2022-02 | 113.1 |
| 2022-01 | 108.1 |
| 2021-12 | 109.5 |
| 2021-11 | 114.0 |
| 2021-10 | 113.3 |
| 2021-09 | 111.5 |
| 2021-08 | 110.5 |
| 2021-07 | 112.9 |
| 2021-06 | 114.5 |
| 2021-05 | 110.0 |
| 2021-04 | 96.2 |
| 2021-03 | 97.7 |
| 2021-02 | 90.9 |
| 2021-01 | 93.6 |
| 2020-12 | 92.3 |
| 2020-11 | 77.9 |
| 2020-10 | 90.2 |
| 2020-09 | 93.8 |
| 2020-08 | 94.1 |
| 2020-07 | 91.0 |
| 2020-06 | 84.7 |
| 2020-05 | 59.7 |
| 2020-04 | 47.4 |
| 2020-03 | 93.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.0 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-10 | 106.4 |
| 2019-09 | 106.8 |
| 2019-08 | 105.8 |
| 2019-07 | 105.9 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-05 | 106.6 |
| 2019-04 | 106.6 |
| 2019-03 | 105.9 |
| 2019-02 | 104.6 |
| 2019-01 | 104.1 |
| 2018-12 | 103.5 |
| 2018-11 | 106.5 |
| 2018-10 | 106.3 |
| 2018-09 | 107.5 |
| 2018-08 | 107.9 |
| 2018-07 | 108.5 |
| 2018-06 | 109.0 |
| 2018-05 | 109.3 |
| 2018-04 | 110.8 |
| 2018-03 | 111.5 |
| 2018-02 | 111.7 |
| 2018-01 | 112.7 |
| 2017-12 | 113.2 |
| 2017-11 | 111.7 |
| 2017-10 | 110.8 |
| 2017-09 | 110.9 |
| 2017-08 | 110.7 |
| 2017-07 | 109.7 |
| 2017-06 | 108.8 |
| 2017-05 | 107.5 |
| 2017-04 | 106.9 |
| 2017-03 | 106.5 |
| 2017-02 | 106.8 |
| 2017-01 | 106.2 |
| 2016-12 | 106.0 |
| 2016-11 | 103.6 |
| 2016-10 | 103.7 |
| 2016-09 | 103.5 |
| 2016-08 | 103.4 |
| 2016-07 | 103.8 |
| 2016-06 | 103.0 |
| 2016-05 | 104.3 |
| 2016-04 | 102.4 |
| 2016-03 | 102.9 |
| 2016-02 | 103.0 |
| 2016-01 | 104.0 |
| 2015-12 | 101.6 |
| 2015-11 | 102.8 |
| 2015-10 | 102.9 |
| 2015-09 | 102.0 |
| 2015-08 | 102.7 |
| 2015-07 | 101.0 |
| 2015-06 | 100.6 |
| 2015-05 | 99.3 |
| 2015-04 | 98.3 |
| 2015-03 | 96.9 |
| 2015-02 | 95.8 |
| 2015-01 | 94.7 |
| 2014-12 | 93.9 |
| 2014-11 | 93.7 |
| 2014-10 | 91.9 |
| 2014-09 | 91.9 |
| 2014-08 | 92.9 |
| 2014-07 | 94.4 |
| 2014-06 | 95.0 |
| 2014-05 | 95.6 |
| 2014-04 | 96.1 |
| 2014-03 | 96.1 |
| 2014-02 | 95.0 |
| 2014-01 | 95.4 |
| 2013-12 | 94.1 |
| 2013-11 | 94.7 |
| 2013-10 | 95.3 |
| 2013-09 | 95.5 |
| 2013-08 | 91.8 |
| 2013-07 | 88.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.8 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-04 | 84.5 |
| 2013-03 | 85.9 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-01 | 87.9 |
| 2012-12 | 88.4 |
| 2012-11 | 87.7 |
| 2012-10 | 86.5 |
| 2012-09 | 88.2 |
| 2012-08 | 89.6 |
| 2012-07 | 90.7 |
| 2012-06 | 91.8 |
| 2012-05 | 92.9 |
| 2012-04 | 97.1 |
| 2012-03 | 95.5 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-01 | 93.1 |
| 2011-12 | 94.6 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.7 |
| 2011-08 | 101.5 |
| 2011-07 | 106.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.6 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-04 | 108.6 |
| 2011-03 | 109.4 |
| 2011-02 | 108.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.7 |
| 2010-12 | 106.8 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-10 | 104.4 |
| 2010-09 | 102.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 98.5 |
| 2010-06 | 96.6 |
| 2010-05 | 97.1 |
| 2010-04 | 95.9 |
| 2010-03 | 92.1 |
| 2010-02 | 92.8 |
| 2010-01 | 92.2 |
| 2009-12 | 90.6 |
| 2009-11 | 90.4 |
| 2009-10 | 88.6 |
| 2009-09 | 85.8 |
| 2009-08 | 82.9 |
| 2009-07 | 79.8 |
| 2009-06 | 77.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.3 |
| 2009-04 | 71.4 |
| 2009-03 | 69.6 |
| 2009-02 | 73.5 |
| 2009-01 | 75.1 |
| 2008-12 | 76.8 |
| 2008-11 | 79.6 |
| 2008-10 | 83.5 |
| 2008-09 | 92.6 |
| 2008-08 | 95.0 |
| 2008-07 | 96.5 |
| 2008-06 | 100.1 |
| 2008-05 | 103.3 |
| 2008-04 | 106.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.1 |
| 2008-02 | 108.2 |
| 2008-01 | 109.4 |
| 2007-12 | 110.0 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-10 | 109.8 |
| 2007-09 | 111.1 |
| 2007-08 | 111.8 |
| 2007-07 | 112.7 |
| 2007-06 | 113.5 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 111.7 |
| 2007-02 | 111.3 |
| 2007-01 | 109.6 |
| 2006-12 | 109.5 |
| 2006-11 | 111.0 |
| 2006-10 | 109.4 |
| 2006-09 | 109.3 |
| 2006-08 | 108.7 |
| 2006-07 | 108.2 |
| 2006-06 | 106.2 |
| 2006-05 | 106.5 |
| 2006-04 | 104.7 |
| 2006-03 | 104.2 |
| 2006-02 | 103.8 |
| 2006-01 | 106.1 |
| 2005-12 | 104.7 |
| 2005-11 | 103.1 |
| 2005-10 | 103.6 |
| 2005-09 | 100.7 |
| 2005-08 | 101.4 |
| 2005-07 | 101.6 |
| 2005-06 | 101.8 |
| 2005-05 | 100.9 |
| 2005-04 | 103.4 |
| 2005-03 | 104.3 |
| 2005-02 | 104.2 |
| 2005-01 | 103.9 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
In wholesale trade, the bimonthly indicator of the business climate has deteriorated compared to May 2024, weighed down by the decline in the balances of opinion related to the past sales and the general business outlook.
In services, the business climate has deteriorated very sharply compared to June 2024, notably because of the retreat in the balance of opinion on the expected demand.
In retail trade (including trade and repair of vehicles), the business climate has worsened markedly, following the deterioration in the balances of opinion related to the ordering intentions and the general business outlook.
In manufacturing industry, the business climate has also sharply darkened, in particular because of the weakening of the balance of opinion on the foreign order books.
In building construction, the business climate indicator has slightly decreased and has moved below its long-term average.
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Mar. 24 | Apr. 24 | May 24 | June 24 | July 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 100 | 99 | 100 | 99 | 94 |
| Manufacturing industry | 102 | 100 | 99 | 99 | 95 |
| Building construction | 103 | 101 | 102 | 100 | 99 |
| Services | 102 | 100 | 102 | 101 | 95 |
| Retail trade* | 101 | 102 | 101 | 99 | 94 |
| Wholesale trade | 96 | 95 | 92 | ||
| Employment | 100 | 101 | 102 | 100 | 96 |
- * including trade and repair of vehicles
- Source : INSEE, business tendency surveys
The employment climate has also deteriorated sharply in July
In July 2024, the employment climate indicator has also worsened markedly. At 96, it has lost four points compared to June and has moved away from its long-term average (100). This worsening is mainly the result of the decrease in the balances of opinion related to the recent and expected changes in the workforce size in services (both temporary work and non-temporary work agencies).
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2024-07 | 96.2 |
| 2024-06 | 99.7 |
| 2024-05 | 102.3 |
| 2024-04 | 100.8 |
| 2024-03 | 100.2 |
| 2024-02 | 101.5 |
| 2024-01 | 99.2 |
| 2023-12 | 100.4 |
| 2023-11 | 99.7 |
| 2023-10 | 102.1 |
| 2023-09 | 104.6 |
| 2023-08 | 101.4 |
| 2023-07 | 105.5 |
| 2023-06 | 106.2 |
| 2023-05 | 106.7 |
| 2023-04 | 108.9 |
| 2023-03 | 109.2 |
| 2023-02 | 109.8 |
| 2023-01 | 112.2 |
| 2022-12 | 110.3 |
| 2022-11 | 108.4 |
| 2022-10 | 107.7 |
| 2022-09 | 109.0 |
| 2022-08 | 108.0 |
| 2022-07 | 110.4 |
| 2022-06 | 108.1 |
| 2022-05 | 110.2 |
| 2022-04 | 111.0 |
| 2022-03 | 112.7 |
| 2022-02 | 113.7 |
| 2022-01 | 110.4 |
| 2021-12 | 108.6 |
| 2021-11 | 113.2 |
| 2021-10 | 110.3 |
| 2021-09 | 107.5 |
| 2021-08 | 109.0 |
| 2021-07 | 108.5 |
| 2021-06 | 107.2 |
| 2021-05 | 101.0 |
| 2021-04 | 91.1 |
| 2021-03 | 90.5 |
| 2021-02 | 84.1 |
| 2021-01 | 86.4 |
| 2020-12 | 83.7 |
| 2020-11 | 80.6 |
| 2020-10 | 88.0 |
| 2020-09 | 92.8 |
| 2020-08 | 89.3 |
| 2020-07 | 79.5 |
| 2020-06 | 70.0 |
| 2020-05 | 50.0 |
| 2020-04 | 41.3 |
| 2020-03 | 96.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 107.3 |
| 2019-11 | 107.9 |
| 2019-10 | 106.5 |
| 2019-09 | 107.8 |
| 2019-08 | 107.5 |
| 2019-07 | 107.1 |
| 2019-06 | 107.8 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-04 | 106.9 |
| 2019-03 | 107.6 |
| 2019-02 | 107.1 |
| 2019-01 | 106.5 |
| 2018-12 | 104.4 |
| 2018-11 | 105.0 |
| 2018-10 | 106.6 |
| 2018-09 | 107.4 |
| 2018-08 | 107.9 |
| 2018-07 | 108.1 |
| 2018-06 | 109.5 |
| 2018-05 | 109.4 |
| 2018-04 | 108.6 |
| 2018-03 | 109.3 |
| 2018-02 | 109.3 |
| 2018-01 | 109.0 |
| 2017-12 | 108.1 |
| 2017-11 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.7 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-08 | 105.0 |
| 2017-07 | 106.8 |
| 2017-06 | 107.3 |
| 2017-05 | 106.9 |
| 2017-04 | 106.4 |
| 2017-03 | 106.9 |
| 2017-02 | 104.5 |
| 2017-01 | 105.4 |
| 2016-12 | 106.1 |
| 2016-11 | 105.3 |
| 2016-10 | 104.6 |
| 2016-09 | 104.9 |
| 2016-08 | 102.2 |
| 2016-07 | 104.5 |
| 2016-06 | 100.8 |
| 2016-05 | 101.4 |
| 2016-04 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.0 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-01 | 101.1 |
| 2015-12 | 100.4 |
| 2015-11 | 101.1 |
| 2015-10 | 99.3 |
| 2015-09 | 99.4 |
| 2015-08 | 99.9 |
| 2015-07 | 99.0 |
| 2015-06 | 98.6 |
| 2015-05 | 96.6 |
| 2015-04 | 96.5 |
| 2015-03 | 94.5 |
| 2015-02 | 95.0 |
| 2015-01 | 93.1 |
| 2014-12 | 94.0 |
| 2014-11 | 93.5 |
| 2014-10 | 93.5 |
| 2014-09 | 93.6 |
| 2014-08 | 93.4 |
| 2014-07 | 94.5 |
| 2014-06 | 94.6 |
| 2014-05 | 96.1 |
| 2014-04 | 96.7 |
| 2014-03 | 95.0 |
| 2014-02 | 93.5 |
| 2014-01 | 94.0 |
| 2013-12 | 93.6 |
| 2013-11 | 92.8 |
| 2013-10 | 93.6 |
| 2013-09 | 91.0 |
| 2013-08 | 90.5 |
| 2013-07 | 89.5 |
| 2013-06 | 88.6 |
| 2013-05 | 85.1 |
| 2013-04 | 86.5 |
| 2013-03 | 88.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.9 |
| 2013-01 | 91.7 |
| 2012-12 | 89.3 |
| 2012-11 | 89.7 |
| 2012-10 | 91.3 |
| 2012-09 | 91.4 |
| 2012-08 | 93.0 |
| 2012-07 | 92.1 |
| 2012-06 | 93.3 |
| 2012-05 | 94.4 |
| 2012-04 | 97.6 |
| 2012-03 | 98.1 |
| 2012-02 | 97.2 |
| 2012-01 | 97.5 |
| 2011-12 | 98.2 |
| 2011-11 | 100.3 |
| 2011-10 | 99.4 |
| 2011-09 | 103.4 |
| 2011-08 | 104.9 |
| 2011-07 | 109.3 |
| 2011-06 | 110.7 |
| 2011-05 | 110.8 |
| 2011-04 | 108.6 |
| 2011-03 | 108.7 |
| 2011-02 | 110.2 |
| 2011-01 | 102.6 |
| 2010-12 | 105.3 |
| 2010-11 | 103.9 |
| 2010-10 | 102.6 |
| 2010-09 | 99.6 |
| 2010-08 | 98.1 |
| 2010-07 | 97.4 |
| 2010-06 | 97.4 |
| 2010-05 | 96.5 |
| 2010-04 | 95.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.2 |
| 2010-02 | 90.7 |
| 2010-01 | 90.1 |
| 2009-12 | 88.6 |
| 2009-11 | 86.9 |
| 2009-10 | 84.5 |
| 2009-09 | 83.1 |
| 2009-08 | 84.4 |
| 2009-07 | 79.5 |
| 2009-06 | 75.4 |
| 2009-05 | 74.5 |
| 2009-04 | 74.9 |
| 2009-03 | 74.7 |
| 2009-02 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 81.1 |
| 2008-12 | 84.2 |
| 2008-11 | 88.6 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-09 | 100.1 |
| 2008-08 | 101.2 |
| 2008-07 | 106.6 |
| 2008-06 | 104.4 |
| 2008-05 | 108.5 |
| 2008-04 | 112.7 |
| 2008-03 | 112.5 |
| 2008-02 | 114.0 |
| 2008-01 | 114.3 |
| 2007-12 | 114.3 |
| 2007-11 | 113.5 |
| 2007-10 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 113.8 |
| 2007-08 | 113.2 |
| 2007-07 | 111.5 |
| 2007-06 | 113.3 |
| 2007-05 | 114.3 |
| 2007-04 | 111.7 |
| 2007-03 | 111.2 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 109.5 |
| 2006-12 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 111.0 |
| 2006-10 | 109.7 |
| 2006-09 | 108.5 |
| 2006-08 | 109.7 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-06 | 111.2 |
| 2006-05 | 108.7 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-03 | 105.7 |
| 2006-02 | 104.9 |
| 2006-01 | 104.9 |
| 2005-12 | 103.3 |
| 2005-11 | 103.9 |
| 2005-10 | 103.9 |
| 2005-09 | 104.0 |
| 2005-08 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 103.5 |
| 2005-06 | 102.9 |
| 2005-05 | 103.8 |
| 2005-04 | 103.4 |
| 2005-03 | 105.7 |
| 2005-02 | 103.2 |
| 2005-01 | 103.2 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The composite indicator of the business climate in wholesale trade of May 2024 has been revised upwards by one point. Conversely, the business climate in retail trade of June 2024 has been revised downwards by one point. Those revisions can be explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies and by the updates of the seasonal coefficients and the parameters of the composite indicators. The other business climate indicators are unchanged (after rounding).
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale) and building construction. It is built from 30 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
The surveys in manufacturing industry, building construction, retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles and services are part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 27 June and 22 July 2024, most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Next issue: 23 August 2024 at 08:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,245 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale) and building construction. It is built from 30 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
The surveys in manufacturing industry, building construction, retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles and services are part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 27 June and 22 July 2024, most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Next issue: 23 August 2024 at 08:45 am.