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Informations Rapides · 21 June 2024 · n° 153
Informations rapidesIn June 2024, the business climate in services has slightly deteriorated but remains above its long-term average Monthly survey of services - June 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in June 2024, the business climate in services has slightly deteriorated compared to May. At 101, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but stands just above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 153
Paru le :Paru le21/06/2024
Prochaine parution le : 25/07/2024 at 08:45 - July 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in June 2024, the business climate in services has slightly deteriorated compared to May. At 101, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but stands just above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2024-06 101.1
2024-05 102.2
2024-04 100.1
2024-03 102.9
2024-02 99.7
2024-01 101.4
2023-12 100.1
2023-11 99.4
2023-10 99.9
2023-09 101.5
2023-08 101.6
2023-07 101.6
2023-06 101.9
2023-05 101.3
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.7
2023-02 105.2
2023-01 104.4
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.4
2022-10 104.4
2022-09 105.6
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.7
2022-04 108.3
2022-03 108.7
2022-02 111.7
2022-01 105.1
2021-12 107.2
2021-11 113.5
2021-10 112.5
2021-09 110.2
2021-08 108.7
2021-07 110.9
2021-06 112.4
2021-05 106.5
2021-04 91.4
2021-03 93.8
2021-02 87.5
2021-01 90.9
2020-12 89.2
2020-11 75.7
2020-10 87.2
2020-09 93.7
2020-08 93.4
2020-07 88.5
2020-06 77.5
2020-05 49.5
2020-04 38.5
2020-03 92.3
2020-02 105.7
2020-01 106.1
2019-12 106.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-10 105.2
2019-09 105.7
2019-08 105.1
2019-07 104.8
2019-06 105.6
2019-05 105.5
2019-04 105.6
2019-03 104.7
2019-02 103.6
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.8
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 102.9
2018-09 104.4
2018-08 104.0
2018-07 104.4
2018-06 104.4
2018-05 104.3
2018-04 105.9
2018-03 106.9
2018-02 106.8
2018-01 107.6
2017-12 108.7
2017-11 107.1
2017-10 106.4
2017-09 106.5
2017-08 106.3
2017-07 103.8
2017-06 103.2
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.2
2017-03 103.2
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.6
2016-12 103.5
2016-11 100.8
2016-10 100.7
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.0
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.2
2016-03 99.4
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 100.1
2015-12 97.0
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.5
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.3
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.3
2015-02 91.4
2015-01 91.1
2014-12 91.2
2014-11 91.1
2014-10 91.1
2014-09 90.9
2014-08 91.4
2014-07 92.4
2014-06 92.2
2014-05 92.2
2014-04 93.2
2014-03 93.0
2014-02 92.1
2014-01 92.2
2013-12 90.8
2013-11 92.3
2013-10 91.7
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.6
2013-07 86.5
2013-06 85.9
2013-05 84.6
2013-04 83.2
2013-03 84.1
2013-02 87.0
2013-01 88.1
2012-12 87.1
2012-11 85.5
2012-10 86.0
2012-09 87.2
2012-08 87.4
2012-07 89.5
2012-06 90.0
2012-05 92.0
2012-04 95.6
2012-03 93.3
2012-02 91.9
2012-01 92.4
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 95.0
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.1
2011-06 107.1
2011-05 107.4
2011-04 108.9
2011-03 110.3
2011-02 109.1
2011-01 107.1
2010-12 106.8
2010-11 104.7
2010-10 102.8
2010-09 101.6
2010-08 100.6
2010-07 99.1
2010-06 98.2
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.7
2010-03 94.3
2010-02 94.2
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.1
2009-10 90.6
2009-09 87.5
2009-08 84.1
2009-07 81.6
2009-06 77.8
2009-05 73.1
2009-04 68.9
2009-03 68.5
2009-02 73.6
2009-01 74.8
2008-12 77.5
2008-11 80.4
2008-10 84.4
2008-09 93.1
2008-08 95.0
2008-07 96.6
2008-06 100.9
2008-05 104.2
2008-04 106.7
2008-03 108.4
2008-02 108.5
2008-01 110.3
2007-12 108.9
2007-11 110.1
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 111.4
2007-08 112.2
2007-07 113.1
2007-06 112.6
2007-05 112.8
2007-04 113.0
2007-03 113.3
2007-02 112.3
2007-01 110.8
2006-12 111.3
2006-11 113.0
2006-10 110.7
2006-09 110.6
2006-08 110.4
2006-07 110.3
2006-06 109.1
2006-05 110.4
2006-04 107.7
2006-03 107.4
2006-02 106.2
2006-01 108.9
2005-12 106.9
2005-11 106.5
2005-10 108.3
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.2
2005-07 107.5
2005-06 108.2
2005-05 106.1
2005-04 107.9
2005-03 108.2
2005-02 106.3
2005-01 106.4

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The expectations of business managers about their activity have deteriorated in June

In June 2024, the business managers in services are more pessimistic about their personal activity prospects than they were in the previous month: the balance of opinion on the expected activity has retreated and has moved below its average level. For its part, the one on the general business outlook for the sector is stable, above its average. The balance related to the activity over the past three months has sharply retreated and has moved below its own. At the same time, the balance on the economic uncertainty felt has diminished, moving away from its average.

Concerning the selling prices, the balance related to their recent change has diminished, while the one on their expected change has risen again. Both of them remain above their long-term average.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2024-06 5.0
2024-05 3.2
2024-04 5.8
2024-03 8.7
2024-02 8.0
2024-01 6.2
2023-12 5.4
2023-11 4.5
2023-10 5.4
2023-09 8.6
2023-08 7.2
2023-07 6.2
2023-06 6.7
2023-05 7.3
2023-04 11.9
2023-03 14.5
2023-02 16.1
2023-01 18.6
2022-12 15.8
2022-11 13.2
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 11.2
2022-08 10.7
2022-07 10.8
2022-06 11.4
2022-05 10.3
2022-04 10.3
2022-03 8.0
2022-02 8.2
2022-01 7.1
2021-12 5.2
2021-11 7.0
2021-10 4.5
2021-09 3.9
2021-08 4.3
2021-07 3.7
2021-06 1.0
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -9.7
2021-03 -7.4
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -10.1
2020-12 -8.2
2020-11 -12.5
2020-10 -8.9
2020-09 -3.0
2020-08 -5.3
2020-07 -8.7
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.4
2020-04 -23.9
2020-03 -3.3
2020-02 0.4
2020-01 0.0
2019-12 0.2
2019-11 -0.1
2019-10 1.7
2019-09 -0.6
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.0
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -1.6
2019-04 -3.0
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.6
2019-01 -2.3
2018-12 0.1
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.8
2018-09 -1.5
2018-08 -0.6
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.9
2018-05 -1.8
2018-04 -3.2
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 -3.7
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.4
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.4
2017-09 -1.7
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.5
2017-05 -4.8
2017-04 -5.4
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.7
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

In June 2024, the balance of opinion on the recent change in the workforce size has sharply deteriorated and has reached a level not seen since April 2021. For its part, the balance of opinion on the expected change in the workforce size has slightly improved. Excluding temporary work agencies, the balances of opinion on the recent and expected change in the workforce size have retreated and have moved below their average.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* March 2024 April 2024 May 2024 June 2024
Composite indicator 100 103 100 102 101
General outlook -7 -5 -6 -5 -5
Past activity 2 2 -1 6 -3
Expected activity 2 5 -2 4 1
Expected demand 0 5 2 2 4
Past selling prices -3 3 7 9 5
Expected selling prices -2 9 6 3 5
Past employment 2 -1 1 0 -8
     Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 0 2 0 -3
Expected employment 2 -7 -1 -1 1
     Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 -1 0 2 -2
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 10 11 11 9
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has deteriorated in most sub-sectors of services

In June 2024, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has sharply edged down, after reaching its highest level since April 2023 last month. Nevertheless, it remains well above its average level. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected demand and on the workforce size, both past and expected, have sharply diminished.

In information-communication, the business climate indicator has retreated, while remaining above its long-term average. This decrease is partly due to the evolution of the balances of opinion on the activity, expected and especially past, and those on the workforce size, both past and expected, which have sharply declined.

In road freight transport, the business climate has darkened and has moved below its average level. The balances of opinion on the past and expected activity and on the expected workforce size have sharply decreased. Conversely, those on the general business outlook for the sector and on the past workforce size have improved.

In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has deteriorated again and keeps moving away from its long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected activity and demand have sharply retreated.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator is stable at its average level. The balance of opinion on the past activity has improved, while the one on the general business outlook for the sector has diminished.

Finally, in administrative and support services, the business climate has brightened afresh but remains below its average level. The balances of opinion on expected activity, demand and workforce size have sharply risen. Conversely, those on the activity and on the past workforce size have strongly diminished.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* March 2024 April 2024 May 2024 June 2024
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 97 99 100 98
General outlook -18 -26 -26 -25 -18
Past activity -6 -16 -10 -6 -17
Expected activity -7 -12 -11 -3 -12
Expected demand -9 -12 -6 -13 -11
Past employment -5 -13 -6 -9 -5
Expected employment -6 -5 -10 -7 -12
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 100 104 110 106
General outlook -13 -10 -5 3 1
Past activity -7 11 17 -1 -2
Expected activity -7 -12 -8 0 -1
Expected demand -9 -14 -6 10 -5
Past employment -5 7 10 8 -1
Expected employment -6 -12 -3 0 -4
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 109 102 107 103
General outlook 0 7 3 3 2
Past activity 8 6 -4 27 6
Expected activity 9 35 8 25 21
Expected demand 10 32 20 22 24
Past employment 6 5 3 5 1
Expected employment 10 17 9 12 8
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 97 99 98 96
General outlook -4 -6 -3 -4 -1
Past activity 6 4 4 1 1
Expected activity 6 -1 -2 6 1
Expected demand 1 5 1 8 -1
Past employment 2 -4 2 -10 -10
Expected employment 3 -2 3 2 1
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 101 97 100 100
General outlook -8 -5 -12 -6 -8
Past activity -1 -6 -5 -5 -3
Expected activity -2 -1 -8 -5 -5
Expected demand -5 -6 -9 -7 -7
Past employment 1 -1 0 -2 -1
Expected employment 1 1 0 2 3
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 96 97 94 96
General outlook -3 0 -2 -3 -4
Past activity 5 4 1 1 -9
Expected activity 5 -3 -1 -5 -1
Expected demand 3 -4 -4 -8 0
Past employment 7 -4 -8 -5 -19
Expected employment 7 -17 3 -9 2
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of May 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 18 June 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 25 July 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 18 June 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 25 July 2024 at 8:45 am.

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