Informations Rapides · 31 May 2024 · n° 133

In Q1 2024, GDP increased (+0.2%) and household purchasing power rose (+0.5% per consumption unit) Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - first quarter 2024

In Q1 2024, the GDP growth in volume terms increased moderately (+0.2% after rounding).

The purchasing power of household gross disposable income (GDI) per consumption unit slowed down (+0.5% after +0.8%). The household savings rate increased again: it stood at 17.6% of the GDI after 17.2% in Q4 2023.

The margin rate of non-financial companies (NFCs) fell sharply in Q1 2024, at 32.1% of their value added, after 33.3% in Q4 2023.

In Q1 2024, GDP in volume terms* increased moderately (+0.2% in quarterly variation after +0.3%). Household consumption slowed down (+0.1% after +0.2%), tempered by the fall in spending on transport equipment (-3.4% after +2.8%), especially new cars. The gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell again in the first quarter of 2024 (-0.4% after -1.0%), mainly as a result of declines in construction (-1.3% after -1.3%) and in capital goods (-1.7% after -1.7%). Government spending kept increasing (+0.6% after +0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+0.1 points after 0.0 points).

Exports accelerated slightly in Q1 2024 (+1.2% after +1.0%): they were boosted by a rebound in exports of agricultural products, transport equipment and “other manufactured goods”. As for imports, they rebounded this quarter (+0.4% after -1.7%), supported by imports of refined petroleum and transport equipment. Overall, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.2 points after +1.0 point).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was again negative this quarter (-0.2 points after -0.7 points in Q4 2023).

_{* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).}

Household gross disposable income (GDI) in current euros remained dynamic in Q1 2024, rising by 1.2% after +1.3% in the previous quarter. Social benefits accelerated sharply (+2.5%, after +1.3%), with the revaluation of basic retirement pensions on 1^st January. On the other hand, the wage bill received by households slowed (+0.5%, after +1.2%) as a result of the backlash of the purchasing power bonus paid to civil servants in the previous quarter. Taxes paid by households rebounded (+2.2% after -1.2%), driven by income tax and levies on capital income.

At the same time, the price of household consumption increased (+0.6% after +0.3%, seasonally and working-day adjusted). As a result, the purchasing power of household GDI slowed down this quarter, rising by 0.6% after +1.0% in Q4 2023. Measured per consumption unit, in order to bring it down to an individual level, it increased by 0.5% after +0.8%.

The household savings rate increased again this quarter, household consumption in volume terms growing less than their purchasing power; it stood at 17.6% after 17.2% in Q4 2023.

Total hours worked went down in Q1 2024 (-0.1% after +0.2% in previous quarter). Total employment continued to rise (+0.1% after +0.1%), but the number of hours worked per job was down (-0.2% after +0.1%), mainly due to a rebound in sick leave.

In the first quarter of 2024, the profit margin of non-financial companies (NFCs) fell sharply to 32.1%, compared with 33.3% in the previous quarter. This decline mainly concerned the manufacturing branches. In the energy sector, the profit margin was stable, at a high level. The downturn mirrors the fall in the price of value added, as well as the decline in subsidies (in particular subsidies under the energy bill payment scheme). On the other hand, taxes on production paid by companies fell, partly as a result of the rise in property tax in the previous quarter, and partly due to a further drop in Company Value Added Tax (CVAE).

In the first quarter of 2024, the general government borrowing requirement fell by 0.3 points of GDP. It stood at 5.6% of GDP, after 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Public revenues was up by €4.0 bn, driven by a rebound in corporate income tax receipts and by taxes on products, notably with the increase in energy taxes (gas and electricity). Public spending also rose up (+€1.9 bn), but less than revenues. They were driven by social benefits (+€3.4 bn), with the revaluation of basic pensions in January, but this increase was offset by the fall in subsidies paid under the electricity price shield (-€3.2 bn).

GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 has not been revised after rounding. Household consumption has been revised significantly downwards, as has the GFCF, notably due to the integration of turnover indices in the services sector for the month of March: in total, the contribution of final domestic demand to growth has been revised downwards by 0.3 points (after rounding) compared with the first estimate, to +0.1 points. On the other hand, imports were less strongly revised upwards than exports, leading to an upward revision of the contribution of foreign trade to quarterly GDP growth (+0.2 points, versus 0.0 points at the first estimate). Lastly, the contribution of inventory variations has not been revised in the first quarter.

Since the previous publication, the quarterly accounts have been recalibrated to the annual accounts (2021 definitive, 2022 semi-definitive and 2023 provisional, as well as the entire set of accounts based on 2020 since 1949). In addition, the estimation models for the quarterly accounts have been revised, as they are every year when the detailed first-quarter results are published. The 2023 quarterly profile has thus been revised, in particular for the fourth quarter, which has been boosted by exports of services.