Informations Rapides ·
24 May 2024 · n° 127
In May 2024, the business climate has slightly deteriorated in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - May 2024
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has slightly deteriorated. At 94, the composite indicator has lost one point compared to March 2024 and remains thus well below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the past export sales and the received merchandise from abroad.
- The balance of opinion related to the past export sales has retreated sharply
- The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have little evolved
- Wholesalers are a little more pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- The balance of opinion on the level of inventories is almost stable
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has slightly deteriorated. At 94, the composite indicator has lost one point compared to March 2024 and remains thus well below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the past export sales and the received merchandise from abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2024-B3 | 93.7 |
| 2024-B2 | 95.3 |
| 2024-B1 | 91.1 |
| 2023-B6 | 91.4 |
| 2023-B5 | 93.6 |
| 2023-B4 | 92.1 |
| 2023-B3 | 93.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 98.0 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.1 |
| 2022-B6 | 100.0 |
| 2022-B5 | 95.6 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.6 |
| 2022-B1 | 116.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.6 |
| 2021-B5 | 110.0 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.4 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.3 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 86.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.1 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.4 |
| 2020-B2 | 97.1 |
| 2020-B1 | 105.0 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.1 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.4 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.8 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.5 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.5 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.4 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.8 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.7 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.7 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.7 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.9 |
| 2017-B1 | 105.0 |
| 2016-B6 | 98.1 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B4 | 103.0 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.5 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.4 |
| 2015-B4 | 102.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 101.0 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.3 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.7 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 98.0 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.1 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.8 |
| 2013-B5 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.5 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.3 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.8 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.4 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2011-B6 | 96.0 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.3 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.3 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.2 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.6 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.7 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.1 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 78.0 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.5 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.9 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.6 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.2 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.7 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.4 |
| 2007-B6 | 109.0 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.6 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.2 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.2 |
| 2006-B5 | 107.0 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.5 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.5 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.8 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balance of opinion related to the past export sales has retreated sharply
In May 2024, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the past export sales has retreated sharply after four two-month periods of rise, and has moved below its long-term average. It has diminished mostly in the sub-sectors of the wholesale trade of household goods, information and communication equipment, in “other industrial capital goods” and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.
The balance of opinion related to all past sales is almost stable, below its long-term average.
The balance related to received merchandise from abroad has partially retreated and has moved away from its long-term average, while the one on the received merchandise, whatever their origin, is almost stable, well below its own.
The balance on the ordering intentions is almost stable, below its own, while the one specific to the ones from abroad has retreated, below its average.
Finally, the balance on the general business outlook has increased for the third two-month period in a row and has moved just above its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | Nov. 23 | Jan. 24 | Mar. 24 | May 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 91 | 91 | 95 | 94 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -35 | -34 | -27 | -22 |
| Sales | -14 | -26 | -27 | -25 | -26 |
| export sales | -15 | -22 | -17 | -12 | -22 |
| Received merchandise | -10 | -19 | -21 | -22 | -23 |
| received from abroad | -11 | -19 | -23 | -15 | -18 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -22 | -21 | -17 | -18 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -23 | -20 | -16 | -19 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -23 | -17 | -10 | -17 |
| Stocks | 8 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 6 |
| Past workforce | -1 | -6 | -9 | -9 | -11 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | -4 | -4 | -1 | -3 |
| Cash position | -9 | -9 | -10 | -10 | -8 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 3 | 0 | -6 | -4 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have little evolved
In May 2024, the balance of opinion on the past selling prices of wholesalers has rebounded a bit whereas the one on the expected prices has slightly diminished, both of them remaining well below their long-term average.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2024-B3 | 2.2 |
| 2024-B2 | 3.2 |
| 2024-B1 | 7.0 |
| 2023-B6 | 6.5 |
| 2023-B5 | 9.2 |
| 2023-B4 | 3.6 |
| 2023-B3 | 6.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 27.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 38.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 40.6 |
| 2022-B5 | 41.0 |
| 2022-B4 | 42.7 |
| 2022-B3 | 48.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 47.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 37.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 39.7 |
| 2021-B5 | 33.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 26.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 10.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -3.5 |
| 2020-B5 | 4.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.3 |
| 2020-B3 | -4.2 |
| 2020-B2 | -1.4 |
| 2020-B1 | 7.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 2.7 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 7.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 8.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 12.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 9.0 |
| 2018-B3 | 6.4 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.3 |
| 2017-B6 | 10.2 |
| 2017-B5 | 3.8 |
| 2017-B4 | 5.3 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.1 |
| 2017-B1 | 9.2 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers are a little more pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balances of opinion on the past and expected evolutions of the workforce size have diminished a bit, the former moving away from its long-term average, the latter moving back below its own.
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories is almost stable
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories is almost stable, just below its average. It has decreased more particularly in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the one of information and communication equipment and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has slightly risen, and has moved back above its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | Nov. 23 | Jan. 24 | Mar. 24 | May 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -28 | -33 | -17 | -11 |
| Export sales | -16 | -23 | -22 | -13 | -13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -26 | -25 | -12 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -20 | -21 | -9 | -6 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 11 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -21 | -22 | -15 | -19 |
| Export sales | -13 | -24 | -23 | -12 | -16 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -7 | -15 | -1 | 2 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -21 | -14 | -12 | -11 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -14 | -8 | -7 | -16 |
| Export sales | -11 | -16 | -10 | -2 | -20 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -16 | -23 | -11 | -21 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -11 | -15 | -12 | -15 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 13 | 21 | 7 | 9 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -19 | -28 | -20 | -13 |
| Export sales | -12 | -12 | -20 | -14 | -29 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -28 | -26 | -24 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -11 | -15 | -2 | -5 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -27 | -25 | -36 | -35 |
| Export sales | -21 | -34 | -17 | -21 | -30 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -23 | -17 | -13 | -26 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -33 | -29 | -27 | -30 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 20 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -38 | -44 | -44 | -41 |
| Export sales | -18 | -22 | -15 | -11 | -22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -23 | -27 | -25 | -21 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -29 | -29 | -26 | -24 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 8 | 4 | -1 | -8 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in March 2024 is unchanged (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 29 April and 21 May 2024.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 25 July 2024 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade