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Informations Rapides · 22 February 2024 · n° 40
Informations rapidesIn February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded and is back to its average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - February 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded. The synthetic indicator has gone back to its average (100). The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months and the ones on the level of the order-books, both overall and foreign, are the main contributors to this rebound.

Informations rapides
No 40
Paru le :Paru le22/02/2024
Prochaine parution le : 19/12/2024 at 08:45 - December 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded. The synthetic indicator has gone back to its average (100). The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months and the ones on the level of the order-books, both overall and foreign, are the main contributors to this rebound.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2024-02 100.5
2024-01 98.5
2023-12 99.3
2023-11 98.6
2023-10 98.8
2023-09 99.1
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.3
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.9
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.3
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.2
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.8
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.0
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.2
2020-06 76.6
2020-05 69.6
2020-04 66.3
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.1
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.6
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.5
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.6
2018-04 110.3
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.3
2018-01 113.6
2017-12 112.1
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.8
2017-09 111.5
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.3
2017-02 106.4
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.5
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.8
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.7
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.6
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.7
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.8
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.1
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.6
2010-01 90.1
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.6
2009-07 76.0
2009-06 74.5
2009-05 71.8
2009-04 69.9
2009-03 65.9
2009-02 67.9
2009-01 72.0
2008-12 72.8
2008-11 79.3
2008-10 86.7
2008-09 91.4
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.6
2007-11 112.3
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.1
2007-04 112.0
2007-03 111.4
2007-02 111.8
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.1
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Business climate 100 99 99 98 100
Past production 5 -9 -1 -8 0
Finished-goods inventory 12 13 14 12 8
Overall order books -18 -17 -19 -19 -17
Foreign order books -14 -6 -7 -8 -6
Past workforce size -8 5 5 3 3
Expected workforce size -9 7 6 6 3
Personal production expectations 6 6 4 7 5
General production expectations -7 -11 -10 -7 -8
Expected trend in selling prices 4 -2 -3 4 0
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 28 27 32 24
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on the level of the order-books have rebounded

In February 2024, the balances of opinion associated with the level of the overall and foreign order-books have rebounded. The one relative to the overall order-books has gone back above its average while the one relative to the foreign order-books remains well above its one.

The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has rebounded. It remains nevertheless below its average. Conversely, the balances of opinion on the general and personal production expectations have withdrawn. Both have gone back just below their long-term average. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders has highly decreased: the corresponding balance has gone back below its average, at its lowest level for two years.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of finished-goods inventories has fallen more clearly than in the previous month and has moved away from its average: it has reached its lowest level since May 2022.

Concerning the workforce size, the balance of opinion on the past change is stable while the one of the expected change has diminished. Both remain well above their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has withdrawn and has gone back below its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage, which had highly decreased the previous month, has increased in February and has moved away from its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is stable and remains above its average. In total, the share of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has reduced again: at 27%, it remains nevertheless above its long-term average. Concerning the share of companies declaring difficulties of demand only, it is stable: at 24%, it is nonetheless well below its long-period average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 9 9 11 9
Sourcing difficulties 11 21 18 17 17
Workforce shortage 9 22 22 14 20
Difficulties of supply only 22 34 30 28 27
Difficulties of demand only 40 22 23 24 24
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has rebounded in the “other manufacturing”, particularly in the sub-sectors of chemicals and chemical products and of basic metals and fabricated metal products

In February 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable, clearly below its long-period average. The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the next three months has clearly withdrawn and has gone back below its average while the one on the overall order-books has increased again.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate is stable, slightly below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has clearly rebounded. Conversely, the balances of opinion associated with the levels of the order-books and with the personal expectations of production have diminished and have gone back below their average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has withdrawn but it remains well above its average. It has slightly rebounded in the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, setting up just below its average, while in the sub-sector of “other transport equipment”, the synthetic indicator has decreased a little but remains well above its average.

Finally, the business climate in the “other manufacturing” has rebounded, particularly in the sub-sectors of chemicals and chemical products and of basic metals and fabricated metal products, but remains below its average. In the sub-sector of chemicals and chemical products, the balances of opinion relative to the levels of the order-books and to the personal expectations of production have improved. In the sub-sector of basic metals and fabricated metal products, the balances of opinion associated with the levels of the order-books have clearly rebounded.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2024-02 86.6 98.9 110.4 96.2
2024-01 86.5 99.2 111.9 93.9
2023-12 86.0 98.4 111.3 95.2
2023-11 85.3 103.4 110.6 93.9
2023-10 84.3 100.6 112.3 94.4
2023-09 87.7 104.2 104.1 95.6
2023-08 87.5 101.3 103.3 95.1
2023-07 91.5 106.2 112.1 94.5
2023-06 85.8 105.4 105.3 94.7
2023-05 92.7 105.9 103.3 95.1
2023-04 94.0 109.6 103.1 97.8
2023-03 99.2 112.1 103.9 98.9
2023-02 102.4 109.9 103.9 96.2
2023-01 100.2 111.2 103.1 96.3
2022-12 99.5 111.8 102.2 95.9
2022-11 104.0 110.6 103.9 95.5
2022-10 107.8 113.4 105.6 96.5
2022-09 106.5 111.1 100.6 98.4
2022-08 107.0 111.9 100.5 99.7
2022-07 106.8 112.4 105.6 101.6
2022-06 106.3 111.9 102.1 105.6
2022-05 107.2 111.4 101.1 104.9
2022-04 109.1 113.0 101.2 108.8
2022-03 111.2 112.3 99.9 107.9
2022-02 111.2 114.8 103.8 111.3
2022-01 111.6 115.9 104.6 110.3
2021-12 116.3 116.2 91.4 112.1
2021-11 115.1 116.1 97.5 113.4
2021-10 112.6 115.4 91.4 111.3
2021-09 109.1 115.6 90.2 112.8
2021-08 111.0 118.6 93.0 113.1
2021-07 113.9 114.9 92.3 114.6
2021-06 116.0 115.1 90.0 110.7
2021-05 116.3 111.6 89.7 110.4
2021-04 105.7 112.7 88.6 107.4
2021-03 101.3 106.4 83.6 104.1
2021-02 94.6 105.2 89.0 101.2
2021-01 91.3 103.4 87.2 100.3
2020-12 89.3 95.4 89.0 101.7
2020-11 92.7 91.2 91.0 94.8
2020-10 93.6 93.2 92.2 95.5
2020-09 102.2 90.3 93.3 92.7
2020-08 96.7 89.6 91.0 88.0
2020-07 88.2 85.1 80.0 81.3
2020-06 90.8 79.3 76.1 78.7
2020-05 91.7 76.7 74.5 73.9
2020-04 93.0 76.8 72.2 72.6
2020-03 108.4 98.3 95.1 97.1
2020-02 107.8 99.0 99.3 100.0
2020-01 107.8 99.9 105.2 99.1
2019-12 107.5 97.2 100.8 97.7
2019-11 104.4 98.1 107.4 100.9
2019-10 105.2 96.0 101.8 99.5
2019-09 108.2 99.6 102.6 101.6
2019-08 108.8 98.7 101.4 101.8
2019-07 102.9 102.9 99.8 100.3
2019-06 108.5 98.8 100.4 100.8
2019-05 111.1 103.9 102.0 102.2
2019-04 107.0 100.8 100.4 100.6
2019-03 108.0 100.4 102.3 101.3
2019-02 107.9 104.4 99.8 101.0
2019-01 107.7 102.5 102.0 101.9
2018-12 107.8 102.5 103.3 102.2
2018-11 108.7 102.0 105.3 102.8
2018-10 102.1 106.2 104.7 103.3
2018-09 107.7 107.5 106.0 105.1
2018-08 107.8 106.8 106.7 105.8
2018-07 107.3 107.9 106.8 106.5
2018-06 109.5 107.5 109.8 105.7
2018-05 108.1 110.7 108.1 107.6
2018-04 109.9 109.0 111.6 107.5
2018-03 109.2 109.3 111.2 109.2
2018-02 109.7 110.1 111.9 110.0
2018-01 111.0 111.3 112.1 111.0
2017-12 111.3 111.0 111.2 110.5
2017-11 111.8 109.7 110.4 111.3
2017-10 111.5 108.9 109.5 111.0
2017-09 107.0 107.5 110.1 108.9
2017-08 108.6 105.7 108.9 108.2
2017-07 109.3 108.6 109.3 106.9
2017-06 111.6 108.2 105.1 108.5
2017-05 105.6 108.2 105.3 106.8
2017-04 104.9 106.3 104.3 107.6
2017-03 104.0 104.0 104.9 104.4
2017-02 105.0 103.3 105.9 106.2
2017-01 103.6 101.5 106.4 105.4
2016-12 108.5 103.1 104.8 104.8
2016-11 107.8 99.5 102.3 101.4
2016-10 106.6 97.3 106.0 101.1
2016-09 109.0 98.4 105.5 100.3
2016-08 99.4 98.2 104.2 101.3
2016-07 104.5 97.5 105.5 101.6
2016-06 103.1 97.1 106.2 101.4
2016-05 103.3 97.2 106.1 103.7
2016-04 105.9 99.9 109.4 101.1
2016-03 101.5 99.1 106.1 101.0
2016-02 100.1 100.7 109.3 99.8
2016-01 101.6 100.6 108.3 99.4
2015-12 99.9 98.0 108.1 101.6
2015-11 102.4 99.6 108.0 99.4
2015-10 104.3 98.1 108.1 99.7
2015-09 105.5 96.0 109.4 102.5
2015-08 103.2 97.2 108.4 101.4
2015-07 108.3 98.3 105.1 102.7
2015-06 105.0 97.1 105.5 100.8
2015-05 101.8 97.2 105.1 101.4
2015-04 104.6 96.6 107.2 100.5
2015-03 100.8 94.2 105.4 100.0
2015-02 99.4 95.0 100.9 100.1
2015-01 103.1 93.3 101.6 99.6
2014-12 99.1 92.0 99.7 100.1
2014-11 96.1 92.0 100.1 99.6
2014-10 95.6 92.5 97.3 98.3
2014-09 94.3 92.1 101.0 97.1
2014-08 95.6 93.4 97.9 100.4
2014-07 97.1 89.2 99.0 98.9
2014-06 95.6 91.7 98.1 98.4
2014-05 98.1 93.7 98.1 99.3
2014-04 95.8 92.7 102.8 100.1
2014-03 99.7 92.8 100.8 102.3
2014-02 99.1 93.7 98.2 98.2
2014-01 99.3 91.1 102.2 98.5
2013-12 98.1 91.9 99.8 99.0
2013-11 98.1 92.2 102.2 98.6
2013-10 95.4 90.2 103.7 97.6
2013-09 94.9 89.9 97.5 97.0
2013-08 95.4 91.5 101.4 97.0
2013-07 92.4 89.5 98.6 94.8
2013-06 92.6 89.1 94.7 93.1
2013-05 91.4 89.4 94.9 91.6
2013-04 91.6 89.5 92.8 89.0
2013-03 93.9 88.9 93.6 91.1
2013-02 97.9 88.8 94.3 90.1
2013-01 97.4 87.9 92.8 91.1
2012-12 98.6 87.5 92.3 91.7
2012-11 98.0 87.3 92.8 92.1
2012-10 90.9 86.1 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.6 91.0 97.4 93.5
2012-08 93.7 90.2 95.2 93.3
2012-07 94.5 90.8 95.4 92.1
2012-06 94.9 90.9 95.6 93.5
2012-05 93.3 94.8 95.0 95.7
2012-04 99.0 95.7 94.3 97.6
2012-03 102.4 96.4 103.1 97.0
2012-02 100.4 96.1 93.8 95.8
2012-01 99.7 96.1 94.9 93.9
2011-12 98.4 96.0 100.1 94.4
2011-11 102.0 95.9 102.6 94.0
2011-10 104.3 98.2 100.3 96.2
2011-09 101.8 99.4 98.7 97.9
2011-08 103.4 100.3 101.9 100.2
2011-07 111.3 102.3 103.8 104.8
2011-06 108.4 104.1 109.5 108.8
2011-05 109.6 103.1 105.2 107.6
2011-04 108.8 104.5 106.0 109.9
2011-03 106.6 106.3 106.4 109.7
2011-02 107.2 101.8 99.3 108.4
2011-01 108.9 103.8 105.2 105.2

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 86 87 87
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 98 99 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 106 107 105
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 97 100 97
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 95 95 97
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 111 112 110
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 98 98 99
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 117 117 116
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 95 94 96
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 102 102 104
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 91 93 92
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 90 89 93
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 87 88 85
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 97 92 98
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 103 104 104
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of January 2024 has been revised downwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 29 January 2024 and 19 February 2024.

Next issue: 21 March 2024 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 29 January 2024 and 19 February 2024.

Next issue: 21 March 2024 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

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