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Informations Rapides · 21 September 2023 · n° 238
Informations rapidesIn September 2023, the business climate remains stable in services Monthly survey of services - September 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the business climate remains stable in services. The indicator that synthesizes it remains at 102 for the fourth month in a row, above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 238
Paru le :Paru le21/09/2023
Prochaine parution le : 23/01/2025 at 08:45 - January 2025

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the business climate remains stable in services. The indicator that synthesizes it remains at 102 for the fourth month in a row, above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2023-09 101.6
2023-08 101.6
2023-07 101.6
2023-06 101.9
2023-05 101.3
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.6
2023-02 105.1
2023-01 104.4
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.4
2022-10 104.4
2022-09 105.5
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.6
2022-04 108.2
2022-03 108.6
2022-02 111.5
2022-01 105.1
2021-12 107.1
2021-11 113.4
2021-10 112.3
2021-09 110.1
2021-08 108.6
2021-07 110.7
2021-06 112.3
2021-05 106.4
2021-04 91.5
2021-03 93.9
2021-02 87.7
2021-01 91.1
2020-12 89.4
2020-11 76.1
2020-10 87.4
2020-09 93.8
2020-08 93.6
2020-07 88.7
2020-06 77.8
2020-05 50.3
2020-04 39.5
2020-03 92.4
2020-02 105.7
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.3
2019-11 105.7
2019-10 105.1
2019-09 105.6
2019-08 105.1
2019-07 104.7
2019-06 105.5
2019-05 105.4
2019-04 105.5
2019-03 104.6
2019-02 103.5
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.7
2018-11 103.4
2018-10 102.8
2018-09 104.4
2018-08 104.0
2018-07 104.3
2018-06 104.3
2018-05 104.2
2018-04 105.9
2018-03 106.8
2018-02 106.7
2018-01 107.5
2017-12 108.6
2017-11 107.0
2017-10 106.3
2017-09 106.4
2017-08 106.2
2017-07 103.8
2017-06 103.1
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.1
2017-03 103.2
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.6
2016-12 103.4
2016-11 100.8
2016-10 100.7
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.5
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 100.1
2015-12 97.1
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.6
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 94.0
2015-03 92.4
2015-02 91.5
2015-01 91.2
2014-12 91.4
2014-11 91.3
2014-10 91.2
2014-09 91.1
2014-08 91.6
2014-07 92.6
2014-06 92.3
2014-05 92.3
2014-04 93.3
2014-03 93.1
2014-02 92.2
2014-01 92.3
2013-12 91.0
2013-11 92.4
2013-10 91.9
2013-09 92.4
2013-08 88.8
2013-07 86.8
2013-06 86.1
2013-05 84.8
2013-04 83.5
2013-03 84.3
2013-02 87.3
2013-01 88.3
2012-12 87.3
2012-11 85.8
2012-10 86.3
2012-09 87.4
2012-08 87.6
2012-07 89.7
2012-06 90.2
2012-05 92.1
2012-04 95.7
2012-03 93.4
2012-02 92.1
2012-01 92.6
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 95.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.0
2011-06 107.0
2011-05 107.4
2011-04 108.8
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 109.0
2011-01 107.0
2010-12 106.7
2010-11 104.7
2010-10 102.8
2010-09 101.6
2010-08 100.6
2010-07 99.1
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.7
2010-03 94.5
2010-02 94.3
2010-01 94.1
2009-12 92.7
2009-11 92.2
2009-10 90.7
2009-09 87.7
2009-08 84.4
2009-07 81.9
2009-06 78.1
2009-05 73.6
2009-04 69.4
2009-03 69.0
2009-02 74.1
2009-01 75.3
2008-12 77.8
2008-11 80.7
2008-10 84.7
2008-09 93.2
2008-08 95.1
2008-07 96.6
2008-06 101.0
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 106.6
2008-03 108.3
2008-02 108.4
2008-01 110.2
2007-12 108.8
2007-11 110.0
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 111.2
2007-08 112.0
2007-07 112.9
2007-06 112.4
2007-05 112.6
2007-04 112.8
2007-03 113.1
2007-02 112.2
2007-01 110.7
2006-12 111.1
2006-11 112.8
2006-10 110.6
2006-09 110.4
2006-08 110.3
2006-07 110.2
2006-06 109.0
2006-05 110.3
2006-04 107.6
2006-03 107.3
2006-02 106.1
2006-01 108.8
2005-12 106.8
2005-11 106.4
2005-10 108.2
2005-09 106.7
2005-08 107.1
2005-07 107.4
2005-06 108.1
2005-05 106.0
2005-04 107.8
2005-03 108.1
2005-02 106.2
2005-01 106.3

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The opinion of business managers about their activity prospects is stable

In September 2023, the business managers in services are as optimistic as in the past two months about their activity prospects. The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has help up a little above its long-term average. The one on the expected activity has increased slightly again and stands just above its own. Conversely, the balance related to the expected demand has retreated but remains just above its average. The one on the economic uncertainty felt has diminished a bit.

The balance of opinion on the activity over the past three months is virtually stable and so remains below its average.

The balance on the recent change in the selling prices is stable whereas the one on their expected change has risen again. Both remain far above their averages.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2023-09 9.0
2023-08 7.2
2023-07 6.2
2023-06 6.7
2023-05 7.3
2023-04 11.9
2023-03 14.5
2023-02 16.1
2023-01 18.6
2022-12 15.8
2022-11 13.2
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 11.2
2022-08 10.7
2022-07 10.8
2022-06 11.4
2022-05 10.3
2022-04 10.3
2022-03 8.0
2022-02 8.2
2022-01 7.1
2021-12 5.2
2021-11 7.0
2021-10 4.5
2021-09 3.9
2021-08 4.3
2021-07 3.7
2021-06 1.0
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -9.7
2021-03 -7.4
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -10.1
2020-12 -8.2
2020-11 -12.5
2020-10 -8.9
2020-09 -3.0
2020-08 -5.3
2020-07 -8.7
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.4
2020-04 -23.9
2020-03 -3.3
2020-02 0.4
2020-01 0.0
2019-12 0.2
2019-11 -0.1
2019-10 1.7
2019-09 -0.6
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.0
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -1.6
2019-04 -3.0
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.6
2019-01 -2.3
2018-12 0.1
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.8
2018-09 -1.5
2018-08 -0.6
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.9
2018-05 -1.8
2018-04 -3.2
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 -3.7
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.4
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.4
2017-09 -1.7
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.5
2017-05 -4.8
2017-04 -5.4
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.7
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

The balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has slightly declined, remaining below its average. The one on the expected change in the workforce size over the next three months has rebounded and has moved above its own.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* June 2023 July 2023 Aug. 2023 Sept. 2023
Composite indicator 100 102 102 102 102
General outlook -7 -7 -5 -5 -5
Past activity 2 4 1 -1 -2
Expected activity 2 3 1 2 3
Expected demand 0 1 1 4 1
Past selling prices -3 13 12 8 8
Expected selling prices -2 7 6 7 9
Past employment 2 0 -3 -2 -3
Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 1 0 -2 -2
Expected employment 2 5 6 0 3
Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 3 2 -2 2
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 9 11 12 11
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate remains bleak in real estate activities but has improved in September

In September 2023, the business climate in real estate activities has rebounded but remains well below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past and expected activity as well as the general business outlook have improved but remain below their averages.

Similarly, in road freight transport, the business climate has improved, though without reaching its average. The balances of opinion on the past and expected activity, the expected demand and the general business outlook have increased sharply but remain below their averages. The one on the past workforce size has fallen back.

In administrative and support services, the business climate has improved again, above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected activity and on the expected workforce size have increased.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has decreased slightly and stands just above its average. The balance of opinion on the past workforce size has retreated whereas the one on the expected workforce size has increased.

In information-communication, the business climate has deteriorated slightly once more and has moved closer to its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the general business outlook and the expected demand have decreased but remain above their averages.

Finally, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has fallen back sharply and is below its average for the first time since January 2022. Particularly, the balance of opinion on the expected demand has declined sharply and has moved away from its average.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* June 2023 July 2023 Aug. 2023 Sept. 2023
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 94 94 93 97
General outlook -18 -22 -28 -28 -25
Past activity -5 -23 -20 -30 -21
Expected activity -7 -21 -19 -18 -12
Expected demand -9 -21 -27 -26 -12
Past employment -5 -4 -6 -3 -9
Expected employment -6 -8 1 -4 -5
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 105 106 103 99
General outlook -13 1 12 -4 -11
Past activity -7 -20 -12 -14 -17
Expected activity -7 -2 -14 -19 -5
Expected demand -9 -14 -2 3 -18
Past employment -5 -1 -12 0 4
Expected employment -6 14 -7 -7 -8
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 108 105 104 102
General outlook 0 4 2 7 2
Past activity 8 27 17 13 10
Expected activity 9 24 17 18 10
Expected demand 9 20 21 26 11
Past employment 6 14 14 6 11
Expected employment 10 15 11 2 7
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 90 91 85 90
General outlook -4 -12 -12 -16 -12
Past activity 6 -8 -4 -4 -1
Expected activity 6 -3 0 -6 -4
Expected demand 1 -2 -5 -7 -4
Past employment 3 0 -4 -9 -9
Expected employment 3 -1 -9 -5 1
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 102 104 102 101
General outlook -8 -9 -3 -4 -4
Past activity -1 -1 -2 -1 -2
Expected activity -2 0 -2 -3 -4
Expected demand -5 -6 -2 -7 -8
Past employment 1 2 2 4 1
Expected employment 1 3 5 4 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 100 102 103 105
General outlook -3 -2 1 2 3
Past activity 5 10 8 7 6
Expected activity 5 4 7 6 12
Expected demand 3 -1 1 7 9
Past employment 8 -5 3 -2 -1
Expected employment 7 2 13 -3 8
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of August 2023 has been revised upwards by two points (after rounding), mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 28 August and 18 September 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 19 October 2023 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 28 August and 18 September 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 19 October 2023 at 8:45 am.

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