Informations Rapides · 11 August 2023 · n° 204

In July 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.1% over one month and by 4.3% year on year Consumer price index - final results - July 2023

In July 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% over one month, after +0.2% in June. The prices of food slowed down (+0.1% after +0.3%), while those of services accelerated (+1.5% after +0.2%), notably those of transports (+11.0% after +1.6%) and “other services” (+1.4% after +0.4%). Contrariwise, the prices of manufactured goods decreased (‑2.3%, after +0.1% in June), notably those of clothing and footwear (‑10.9% after +0.3%), due to the summer sales. The prices of energy also decreased (‑2.0% after +0.1%), linked with the decline in those of gas (‑11.4% after ‑0.2%).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices were stable in July 2023, as in June.

Year on year, consumer prices grew by 4.3% in July 2023, after +4.5% in June. This decrease in inflation resulted, on the one hand from a year-on-year decline in energy prices stronger than in the previous month (‑3.7% after ‑3.0%), and on the other hand from a slowdown in food prices (+12.7% after +13.7%) and manufactured goods (+3.4% after +4.2%). The inflation in tobacco is stable, compared to the previous month (+9,8%), while the prices of services accelerated slightly (+3.1% after +3.0%).

Year on year, core inflation decreased, reaching 5.0% in July 2023, after +5.7% in June.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is stable over one month, after +0.2% in June; year on year, it increased by 5.1% in July 2023, after +5.3% in the previous month.

Year on year, the prices of energy decreased by ‑3.7% in July 2023, after ‑3.0% in June. The prices of gas strongly slowed down (+4.5% after +22.0%), despite the abolition of the regulated prices and the end of the price shield on gas the 30 June 2023. The prices of gas on the wholesale market progressively reduced indeed, since the height reached during summer 2022. To a lesser extent, the prices of electricity (+9.4% after +10.1%) and of solid fuel (+22.9% after +28.7%) also slowed down. Contrariwise, the year-on-year decline in petroleum product prices was less marked than in the previous month (‑13.9% after ‑17.2%) due to a “base effect” (over one month, they have very slightly increased in July 2023, however they had decreased in July 2022): thus, the prices of diesel (‑14.8% after ‑18.8%), petrol (‑7.2% after ‑11.3%) and liquid fuel (‑29.2% after ‑30.7%) decreased less than in the previous month.

Year on year, food prices rose by 12.7% in July 2023, after +13.7% in June: they have progressively slowed down since March 2023, when food inflation had reached +15.9%. Excluding fresh products, food prices slowed down for the third consecutive month (+13.0%, after +14.1% in June). The increase in prices softened for bread and cereals (+13.1% after +14.1%), meat (+10.6% after +11.9%), milk, cheese and eggs (+17.9% after +19.8%), oils and fats (+12.5% after +15.9%), and, to a lesser extent, for sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (+15.9% after +16.3%), alcoholic (+8.4% after +8.8%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+12.9% after +13.6%). The prices of fresh products also increased at a less marked rate in July 2023 (+10.6% after +11.2% in June), due to the slowdown in the prices of fresh vegetables (+12.2% after +17.0%) and fresh fish (+2.0% after +3.4%). Contrariwise, those of fresh fruits accelerated slightly (+10.5% after +9.0%), linked with a month-on-month seasonal decrease weaker in July 2023 than in July 2022.

Year on year, manufactured good prices increased by 3.4% in July 2023, after +4.2% in June. The increase of prices softened for clothing and footwear (+3.4% after +4.9%), partly due to the extension of the sales period. The prices of “other manufactured goods” slowed down (+4.6% after +5.3%), notably those of furniture and furnishings (+4.2% after +5.9%), major household appliances (+1.5% after +2.4%), vehicles (+3.1% after +4.1%) and articles and products for personal care (+8.2% after +9.5%). Contrariwise, the prices of newspapers and periodicals accelerated (+5.9% after +4.7%). Finally, the prices of health products decreased at a rate close to that of the previous month (‑0.8% after ‑0.7%).

Year on year, service prices rose by 3.1% in July 2023, after +3.0% in June. The prices of housing-related services accelerated (+3.1% after +2.8%), and those of health services decreased less than in the previous month (‑0.4% after ‑0.6%). The prices of “other services” increased at a rate close to that of the previous month (+3.9% after +4.0%): on the one hand, prices slowed down for accommodation services (+2.0% after +5.1%), catering services (+5.4% after +5.6%), maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+5.3% after +5.4%) and personal transport equipment services (+7.4% after +8.0%), on the other hand those of insurance services and social protection services increased at the same rate than in the previous month (+3.6% and +4.5% respectively), and the decrease in those of recreational and cultural services softened (‑5.7% after ‑6.2%). The prices of transport services were less dynamic than in the previous month (+5.4% after +6.0%), the seasonal price increase over one month being less strong in July 2023 than in July 2022: those of airfares slowed down sharply (+0.7% after +9.9%), and to a lesser extent, those of transport by train (+6.5% after +8.5%) and transport by road (+4.4% after +4.7%). Finally, the decrease in communication service prices accentuated (‑6.1% after ‑4.2%).

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 28 July 2023, the month-on-month change in CPI was up by 0.1 points, and the year-on-year change in CPI and both month-on-month and year-on-year changes in HICP have been confirmed.