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Informations Rapides · 25 May 2023 · n° 127
Informations rapidesIn May 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has degraded again and has gone back just below its long-term average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - May 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has deteriorated for the third month in a row. At 99, the synthetic indicator has lost two points and has gone back just below its long-term average (100) for the first time since March 2021. The balances of opinion on the change in past production and on the overall order-books have particularly contributed to this decline.

Informations rapides
No 127
Paru le :Paru le25/05/2023
Prochaine parution le : 23/08/2024 at 08:45 - August 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has deteriorated for the third month in a row. At 99, the synthetic indicator has lost two points and has gone back just below its long-term average (100) for the first time since March 2021. The balances of opinion on the change in past production and on the overall order-books have particularly contributed to this decline.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-05 98.6
2023-04 100.7
2023-03 103.5
2023-02 104.6
2023-01 102.9
2022-12 102.0
2022-11 101.0
2022-10 102.9
2022-09 101.5
2022-08 103.4
2022-07 105.6
2022-06 107.9
2022-05 106.3
2022-04 107.6
2022-03 107.4
2022-02 112.3
2022-01 112.9
2021-12 109.7
2021-11 109.5
2021-10 107.0
2021-09 106.4
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.2
2021-06 107.7
2021-05 107.0
2021-04 103.4
2021-03 98.4
2021-02 98.0
2021-01 96.3
2020-12 95.1
2020-11 91.7
2020-10 93.9
2020-09 94.0
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.4
2020-06 77.2
2020-05 70.0
2020-04 66.5
2020-03 97.3
2020-02 100.9
2020-01 102.6
2019-12 99.3
2019-11 101.8
2019-10 99.4
2019-09 101.5
2019-08 102.0
2019-07 101.2
2019-06 101.7
2019-05 103.7
2019-04 101.2
2019-03 103.3
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.1
2018-10 104.2
2018-09 107.1
2018-08 108.7
2018-07 108.3
2018-06 109.6
2018-05 109.8
2018-04 110.4
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-01 113.8
2017-12 111.8
2017-11 111.5
2017-10 111.0
2017-09 110.9
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.0
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.7
2017-04 108.5
2017-03 105.5
2017-02 106.7
2017-01 105.9
2016-12 105.7
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.2
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.5
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-06 96.4
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.8
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.6
2013-05 91.9
2013-04 87.5
2013-03 90.4
2013-02 90.4
2013-01 89.7
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.5
2012-10 86.9
2012-09 92.5
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.9
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 94.7
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.7
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.0
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.3
2010-07 97.1
2010-06 95.6
2010-05 96.3
2010-04 94.9
2010-03 90.9
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.0
2009-12 87.2
2009-11 87.3
2009-10 84.9
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.6
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 72.0
2009-04 70.2
2009-03 66.2
2009-02 68.2
2009-01 72.3
2008-12 73.0
2008-11 79.5
2008-10 86.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.5
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.2
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Business climate 100 105 104 101 99
Past production 5 16 10 9 1
Finished-goods inventory 12 18 13 22 14
Overall order books -18 -14 -13 -17 -21
Foreign order books -14 -10 -9 -10 -13
Past workforce size -8 12 13 9 10
Expected workforce size -10 12 16 11 11
Personal production expectations 6 14 10 5 4
General production expectations -7 0 -1 -4 -10
Expected trend in selling prices 4 29 28 13 3
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 32 33 30 26
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the change in production over the last three months has distinctly degraded

In May 2023, the balance of opinion related to the change in production over the last three months has distinctly degraded and has gone back below its average. Those related to the production prospects, general and personal, have diminished for the third month in a row and have reached their lowest level since November 2020.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of the order-books, overall as well as foreign, have diminished again. The one associated with the level of overall order-books has gone back below its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has folded back but remains above its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size are almost stable, well above their respective averages.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has diminished again, as it has since the beginning of the year, and has returned just below its long-term average.

The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has pursued its decline started in August 2022 and has now reached 21% compared to 25% a month earlier. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has decreased to 17%. However, these shares remain above their respective averages.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 11 10 15 11
Sourcing difficulties 11 28 28 25 21
Workforce shortage 9 19 18 20 17
Difficulties of supply only 22 43 42 40 38
Difficulties of demand only 40 15 18 18 18
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has clearly deteriorated in the “other industries” and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator is stable in May 2023, well below its long-term average, after having fallen sharply last month. However, the three-month production prospects have slightly recovered.

The business climate has clearly deteriorated in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods. The synthetic indicator has reached its lowest level since January 2021. However, it remains above its average. The balance of opinion on overall order-books has fallen quite sharply.

The business climate isbroadly stable in the manufacture of transport equipment. It has deteriorated in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, where it has gone back below its average. Conversely, in the other transport equipment, the climate has improved again and has reached its highest level since August 2022.

Finally, the business climate has clearly deteriorated in the so-called "other industries" sector. The synthetic indicator has moved away further from its average and has fallen in all sub-sectors.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-05 93.0 105.4 104.3 93.9
2023-04 92.6 109.5 103.6 97.9
2023-03 98.8 111.4 104.4 99.0
2023-02 101.5 110.1 106.2 96.7
2023-01 98.1 111.2 104.1 96.7
2022-12 99.8 111.2 100.8 96.2
2022-11 104.4 110.0 102.4 95.5
2022-10 107.1 112.8 105.4 95.8
2022-09 106.4 110.2 99.2 97.9
2022-08 107.1 112.3 100.6 99.3
2022-07 107.2 111.8 106.2 101.3
2022-06 108.7 110.8 103.0 105.8
2022-05 105.5 110.3 102.2 104.4
2022-04 107.7 112.5 101.9 108.8
2022-03 110.6 111.4 100.6 108.0
2022-02 110.4 114.9 106.0 111.5
2022-01 110.0 116.0 106.2 110.6
2021-12 116.9 115.8 90.7 112.3
2021-11 115.5 115.4 96.5 113.3
2021-10 111.7 115.3 91.4 110.4
2021-09 109.3 114.9 88.9 112.2
2021-08 111.4 119.5 93.5 112.5
2021-07 114.6 114.9 92.8 114.1
2021-06 118.8 114.8 90.6 110.6
2021-05 115.1 111.5 90.9 109.8
2021-04 104.1 113.2 89.5 107.3
2021-03 100.3 106.4 84.6 104.2
2021-02 93.8 105.7 91.0 101.4
2021-01 89.3 104.5 88.5 100.5
2020-12 89.5 96.1 88.0 101.9
2020-11 92.3 91.5 89.7 94.7
2020-10 93.3 94.4 91.6 94.6
2020-09 102.2 91.1 92.3 92.3
2020-08 95.9 91.6 91.4 87.4
2020-07 88.9 84.9 80.2 81.1
2020-06 92.3 78.7 77.0 78.7
2020-05 90.0 75.8 75.4 73.8
2020-04 91.3 76.6 73.0 73.2
2020-03 106.8 97.8 96.0 97.2
2020-02 107.4 99.2 100.6 100.2
2020-01 107.3 100.5 106.2 99.3
2019-12 107.4 97.1 99.7 98.0
2019-11 103.6 97.5 105.7 100.9
2019-10 105.2 96.1 100.8 98.9
2019-09 107.6 99.1 101.5 101.2
2019-08 108.2 99.5 101.5 101.4
2019-07 104.3 102.4 99.5 100.2
2019-06 108.5 98.5 100.9 100.5
2019-05 111.6 103.8 102.8 101.9
2019-04 106.2 100.9 101.4 100.7
2019-03 106.0 100.5 103.0 101.3
2019-02 108.0 104.4 101.2 101.1
2019-01 107.4 103.0 103.0 102.0
2018-12 107.2 101.9 102.8 102.4
2018-11 109.2 101.6 104.3 102.7
2018-10 102.1 106.4 104.0 102.7
2018-09 106.9 106.8 105.5 104.6
2018-08 107.6 107.6 106.8 105.5
2018-07 107.5 107.6 106.4 106.3
2018-06 110.2 107.4 110.3 105.5
2018-05 107.7 110.8 108.6 107.5
2018-04 108.9 109.5 113.0 107.5
2018-03 108.5 109.6 111.8 109.3
2018-02 109.9 110.4 112.7 109.8
2018-01 110.9 112.0 112.7 110.8
2017-12 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.5
2017-11 112.2 109.2 109.5 110.9
2017-10 110.8 109.1 108.9 110.2
2017-09 107.1 106.9 109.8 108.3
2017-08 108.4 106.4 108.9 108.1
2017-07 108.5 108.5 108.7 106.6
2017-06 111.4 107.9 105.6 108.2
2017-05 105.7 108.5 105.9 106.9
2017-04 103.4 106.7 106.3 107.7
2017-03 103.8 104.4 105.9 104.6
2017-02 105.2 103.7 106.8 106.1
2017-01 103.5 102.2 107.2 105.2
2016-12 108.1 103.3 104.9 104.6
2016-11 107.5 99.6 102.6 101.3
2016-10 106.3 97.4 106.1 101.0
2016-09 108.6 98.4 105.6 100.2
2016-08 98.9 98.1 104.2 101.2
2016-07 104.2 97.6 105.5 101.4
2016-06 102.8 97.2 106.3 101.2
2016-05 103.1 97.6 106.4 103.6
2016-04 105.6 100.0 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.1 99.0 106.3 100.9
2016-02 99.9 100.5 109.4 99.7
2016-01 101.4 100.5 108.5 99.3
2015-12 99.5 98.0 108.1 101.5
2015-11 101.9 99.5 108.2 99.2
2015-10 104.1 98.2 108.2 99.6
2015-09 105.3 96.1 109.5 102.3
2015-08 102.9 97.4 108.2 101.2
2015-07 108.3 98.2 105.2 102.6
2015-06 104.8 97.1 105.6 100.6
2015-05 101.7 97.1 105.3 101.3
2015-04 104.2 96.6 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.3 94.0 105.6 99.9
2015-02 99.1 95.1 101.4 100.0
2015-01 102.9 93.5 102.0 99.5
2014-12 98.7 92.2 100.0 100.0
2014-11 95.7 92.2 100.4 99.5
2014-10 95.2 92.6 97.5 98.3
2014-09 94.1 92.2 101.1 97.0
2014-08 95.0 93.4 98.1 100.4
2014-07 96.6 89.5 99.5 98.9
2014-06 95.3 91.8 98.5 98.3
2014-05 97.7 93.7 98.6 99.2
2014-04 95.5 92.5 103.2 99.9
2014-03 99.5 92.7 101.1 102.2
2014-02 98.8 93.9 98.4 98.1
2014-01 99.1 91.4 102.8 98.4
2013-12 98.1 91.9 100.2 98.9
2013-11 97.9 92.8 102.3 98.4
2013-10 95.1 90.5 103.9 97.5
2013-09 94.5 90.2 97.9 96.9
2013-08 95.1 91.8 101.7 96.8
2013-07 91.9 89.8 99.0 94.7
2013-06 92.2 89.2 95.1 93.0
2013-05 91.0 89.6 95.1 91.6
2013-04 91.3 89.7 93.1 89.0
2013-03 93.6 89.0 94.1 91.1
2013-02 97.5 88.7 94.5 90.1
2013-01 97.2 87.7 92.6 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.7 92.5 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.2 93.0 92.1
2012-10 90.6 85.9 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.3 90.9 97.3 93.5
2012-08 93.2 90.2 95.5 93.3
2012-07 94.1 90.7 95.3 92.1
2012-06 94.5 91.0 95.9 93.5
2012-05 93.0 94.6 95.2 95.7
2012-04 98.6 96.0 94.3 97.5
2012-03 101.9 96.5 103.2 96.9
2012-02 100.0 95.8 93.9 95.7
2012-01 99.3 95.9 95.1 93.9
2011-12 97.8 96.1 100.3 94.3
2011-11 101.6 95.7 102.5 94.0
2011-10 104.0 98.0 100.4 96.2
2011-09 101.4 99.3 99.1 97.9
2011-08 103.1 100.4 102.2 100.1
2011-07 111.0 102.5 104.2 104.6
2011-06 108.1 104.4 109.8 108.6
2011-05 109.4 103.4 105.6 107.4
2011-04 108.7 104.8 106.2 109.7
2011-03 106.4 106.6 106.6 109.4
2011-02 107.1 102.5 100.0 108.1
2011-01 108.8 104.3 105.5 104.9

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 99 93 93
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 111 109 105
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 118 115 113
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 103 101 98
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 110 108 104
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 104 104 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 100 101 98
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 104 103 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 99 98 94
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 114 113 111
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 91 90 88
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 92 92 91
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 98 91 88
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 100 96 91
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 108 107 101
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of April 2023 has not been revised (after rounding), despite the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 April and 22 May 2023.

Next issue: 22 June 2023 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 April and 22 May 2023.

Next issue: 22 June 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

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