Informations Rapides ·
25 May 2023 · n° 131
In May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated again in services Monthly survey of services - May 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services, for the third month in a row. At 101, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains just above its long-term average (100). Most of the balances of opinion for the sector have declined, especially those on the general and personal business outlook.
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services, for the third month in a row. At 101, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains just above its long-term average (100). Most of the balances of opinion for the sector have declined, especially those on the general and personal business outlook.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-05 | 100.8 |
| 2023-04 | 102.9 |
| 2023-03 | 104.7 |
| 2023-02 | 106.2 |
| 2023-01 | 104.8 |
| 2022-12 | 103.8 |
| 2022-11 | 104.2 |
| 2022-10 | 105.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.4 |
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.5 |
| 2022-06 | 107.5 |
| 2022-05 | 108.9 |
| 2022-04 | 108.0 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.2 |
| 2021-12 | 107.0 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.2 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.1 |
| 2021-03 | 93.4 |
| 2021-02 | 87.9 |
| 2021-01 | 90.9 |
| 2020-12 | 89.4 |
| 2020-11 | 77.1 |
| 2020-10 | 88.2 |
| 2020-09 | 93.9 |
| 2020-08 | 93.1 |
| 2020-07 | 88.3 |
| 2020-06 | 77.3 |
| 2020-05 | 50.4 |
| 2020-04 | 40.1 |
| 2020-03 | 92.4 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.2 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-04 | 105.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.7 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.7 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.0 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.0 |
| 2016-07 | 100.2 |
| 2016-06 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.4 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 93.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.4 |
| 2015-02 | 91.5 |
| 2015-01 | 91.2 |
| 2014-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-11 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.7 |
| 2014-07 | 92.6 |
| 2014-06 | 92.3 |
| 2014-05 | 92.2 |
| 2014-04 | 93.3 |
| 2014-03 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.2 |
| 2014-01 | 92.3 |
| 2013-12 | 91.0 |
| 2013-11 | 92.4 |
| 2013-10 | 91.7 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-08 | 88.7 |
| 2013-07 | 86.7 |
| 2013-06 | 86.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.0 |
| 2013-04 | 83.6 |
| 2013-03 | 84.4 |
| 2013-02 | 87.3 |
| 2013-01 | 88.5 |
| 2012-12 | 87.4 |
| 2012-11 | 85.8 |
| 2012-10 | 86.5 |
| 2012-09 | 87.6 |
| 2012-08 | 87.8 |
| 2012-07 | 89.9 |
| 2012-06 | 90.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.2 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-03 | 93.7 |
| 2012-02 | 92.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2011-12 | 95.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.3 |
| 2011-10 | 97.4 |
| 2011-09 | 98.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.0 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.8 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.5 |
| 2010-07 | 99.0 |
| 2010-06 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.0 |
| 2009-12 | 92.6 |
| 2009-11 | 92.1 |
| 2009-10 | 90.7 |
| 2009-09 | 87.6 |
| 2009-08 | 84.4 |
| 2009-07 | 81.9 |
| 2009-06 | 78.2 |
| 2009-05 | 73.6 |
| 2009-04 | 69.6 |
| 2009-03 | 69.5 |
| 2009-02 | 74.6 |
| 2009-01 | 75.7 |
| 2008-12 | 78.3 |
| 2008-11 | 81.3 |
| 2008-10 | 85.3 |
| 2008-09 | 93.7 |
| 2008-08 | 95.6 |
| 2008-07 | 97.1 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-05 | 104.5 |
| 2008-04 | 106.9 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.0 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.7 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.8 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.3 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 105.9 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are less optimistic about their activity prospects
In May 2023, the business managers in services are less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balance of opinion on expected activity has decreased for the third month in a row and has moved away from its long-term average whereas the one on the general business outlook for the sector has also decreased but remains above its own. The balance related to the expected demand has rebounded slightly but remains below its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt is stable.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has decreased for the third month in a row and has moved below its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has decreased slightly whereas the one about the expected change in selling prices has declined more sharply. However, both remain well above their long-term average.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-05 | 7.0 |
| 2023-04 | 13.8 |
| 2023-03 | 13.7 |
| 2023-02 | 17.0 |
| 2023-01 | 19.8 |
| 2022-12 | 16.2 |
| 2022-11 | 12.9 |
| 2022-10 | 10.5 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has fallen back sharply and has moved below its average. The one on the expected workforce size has decreased again but remains above its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Feb. 2023 | Mar. 2023 | Apr. 2023 | May 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 105 | 103 | 101 |
| General outlook | -7 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -4 |
| Past activity | 2 | 11 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -1 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 7 |
| Past employment | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -6 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 17 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated in all the sub-sectors of services, except in information-communication
In May 2023, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has decreased markedly but remains above its average level. The balances of opinion on past and expected activity have declined strongly, as well as the one on the expected demand.
In road freight transport, the business climate has decreased sharply and stands well below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on expected demand and on the general and personal business outlook have fallen back sharply, well below their respective average.
In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has decreased sharply and has moved below its average. In particular, the balance on expected activity has declined very significantly and has moved away from its own.
In professional, scientific and technical activities on the one hand and in administrative and support services on the other, the business climate has also deteriorated but remains above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the general and personal business outlook have decreased.
Conversely, in information-communication, the business climate has improved and has moved away from its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on expected activity and demand have rebounded sharply.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Feb. 2023 | Mar. 2023 | Apr. 2023 | May 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 95 | 99 | 93 |
| General outlook | -18 | -23 | -22 | -16 | -26 |
| Past activity | -5 | -10 | -17 | -13 | -15 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -17 | -16 | -6 | -20 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -18 | -25 | -17 | -29 |
| Past employment | -5 | 5 | -3 | 0 | -10 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 2 | -5 | -3 | -3 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 111 | 110 | 115 | 107 |
| General outlook | -13 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| Past activity | -7 | 27 | 2 | 3 | -25 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 7 | -1 | 13 | -8 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Past employment | -5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -16 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 |
| Information and communication (29%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 106 | 102 | 105 |
| General outlook | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Past activity | 8 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 8 | 8 | -3 | 14 |
| Past employment | 6 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 13 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 21 | 22 | 16 | 17 |
| Real estate activities (10%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 101 | 101 | 96 |
| General outlook | -4 | -7 | -9 | -8 | -5 |
| Past activity | 7 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| Expected demand | 2 | -1 | 2 | -5 | -2 |
| Past employment | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 105 | 104 | 101 |
| General outlook | -8 | -4 | -1 | -3 | -5 |
| Past activity | -1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 0 | -3 | -3 | -6 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -2 | 1 | -6 | -8 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 106 | 104 | 103 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Past activity | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| Past employment | 8 | -3 | -8 | -9 | -22 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 13 | 19 | 3 | -1 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of April 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 April and 22 May 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 June 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 April and 22 May 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 June 2023 at 8:45 am.