Insee Première · November 2022 · n° 1927

Girls born in 2022 could live 93 years on average, boys 90 years

If recent demographic trends were to persist, girls born in 2022 would live 93 years on average and boys 90 years. Women and men aged 65 in 2022 would live slightly less on average: up to 89 and 86 years respectively. Uncertainty about the average age at death is low for older people but it increases for younger people. Depending on the assumptions, girls born in 2022 would live between 88 and 99 years on average and boys between 86 and 96 years.

Life expectancy increases from cohort to cohort: women born in 1900 lived on average only 56 years and men 48 years. Cohorts born from 1941 to 1955 stand out, however, as their life expectancy at age 65 would stagnate if recent trends were to persist.

The probability of reaching a given age has greatly increased. Only 81% of women and 69% of men born in 1940 reached age 65, but this would be the case for 91% of women and 84% of men born in 1970 and for almost all newborns in 2022. Finally, 6% of women and 2% of men born in 1940 would become centenarians.