Informations Rapides · 29 October 2021 · n° 281

GDP accelerated in Q3 2021 (+3.0%), and returns to its pre-crisis level (–0.1% from Q4 2019) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2021

Gross domestic product (GDP) sped up in Q3 2021 (+3.0% after +1.3% in Q2). GDP almost returned to its pre-crisis level and stood 0.1% below its Q4 2019 level.

Final internal demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+3.3 points, after +1.5 points in Q2): in particular, households’ consumption expenditure accelerated very strongly (+5.0% after +1.3%), and contributed for +2.5 points to GDP growth this quarter. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was almost stable (-0.1% after +2.5% in the previous quarter).

Exports accelerated this quarter (+2.3% after +1.2% in the previous quarter) while imports were stable (+0.1% after +1.7%). Foreign trade remained largely below its pre-crisis level, but its contribution to GDP growth was positive this quarter: +0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative this quarter (–0.9 points after +0.0 points in the previous quarter).

Total production of goods and services accelerated in Q3: +2.6%, after +1.6% in Q2. This acceleration was largely driven by market services (+4.7% after +2.5%), especially in hotel and restaurant services (+43.4% after +30.6%) and in transport and storage services (+8.6% after +4.7%). The production of non-market services also increased this quarter (+1.5% after +0.0%). On the contrary, the production of the manufacturing branches declined this quarter (–0.6% after –0.1%), as did the production of the construction sector (–1.0% after +3.2%).In Q3 2021, total production almost returned to its pre-crisis level (–0.2% from Q4 2019), mainly due to production in services. In particular, the production of market services exceeded its pre-crisis level for the first time this quarter (+0.9% in Q4 2019, compared to –3.6% in the previous quarter). The production of non-market services also exceeded its Q4 2019 level (+3.1%). In contrast, production in goods remained well below its pre-crisis level (–4.2% from Q4 2019), particularly in the manufacturing branches (–6.0%). Construction also stood behind its pre-crisis level (–1.1% from Q4 2019).

Household consumption expenditure accelerated strongly this quarter (+5.0% after +1.3% in Q2). This increase was essentially driven by the consumption of services, in particular hotel and restaurant services (+58.9% after +44.9% in the previous quarter): this increase contributed to half of the GDP growth this quarter. Consumption of "other household services" was also very dynamic this quarter (+20.7% after +4.5%), driven by the reopening of museums, theme parks, casinos, etc. Similarly, consumption of transport services recovered strongly (+42.8% after +10.6%). Finally, household consumption in goods also rebounded (+1.8% after –2.5% in the previous quarter).

Overall, household consumption approached its pre-crisis level (–0.9% from Q4 2019 level). In particular, in Q3 2021, household consumption of hotel and restaurant services stood only 4.4% below its pre-crisis level, compared with 39.8% during Q2.

Total GFCF was almost stable (–0.1%, after +2.5% in the previous quarter): GFCF in market services remained dynamic (+1.6% after +2.7%), but was offset by the decline of GFCF in manufactured goods (–2.0% after +0.7%) and in the construction sector (–0.6%, after +3.3%)

In the third quarter of 2021, GFCF thus remained above its pre-crisis level: +1.4% compared to the level in Q4 2019, after +1.5% in the previous quarter.

In Q3 2021, exports accelerated (+2.3% after +1.2%), while imports were almost stable (+0.1% after +1.7%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter). In particular, foreign trade in tourism picked up significantly: +65.3% for exports and +43.2% for imports. On the contrary, foreign trade in goods fell slightly: –0.8% for exports and –1.2% for imports.

Foreign trade approached its pre-crisis level but remained deteriorated: –7.0% from Q4 2019 for exports, –5.4% for imports. In particular, foreign tourism remained largely below its pre-crisis level: –31.4% for exports from Q4 2019, –28.4% for imports.

Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (–0.9 points, after +0.0 points in Q2 2021): with the dynamism of internal demand, the improvement of the foreign trade balance on godds and the atony of mafuctaring production, economics agents increased less their inventories, or even decreased them. This effect is particularly notable for food products, refined fuel and other industrial goods.

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2021 is revised upwards by 0.2 points to +1.3%. This revision is due to the integration of new data, and to the revision of existing indicators.