Informations rapides
24 September 2020
2020- n° 237
In September 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has continued to rebound, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous months Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve although at a slower pace than before. The composite indicator has gained 3 points compared to August while it had gained 10 points between July and August. At 96, it has moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balances of opinion on past production and overall order-books. It is limited by the sharp fall in the balance of opinion on personal production prospects.

Informations rapides
No 237
Paru le :Paru le24/09/2020
Prochaine parution le : 24/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve although at a slower pace than before. The composite indicator has gained 3 points compared to August while it had gained 10 points between July and August. At 96, it has moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balances of opinion on past production and overall order-books. It is limited by the sharp fall in the balance of opinion on personal production prospects.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.2
1998-03 117.1
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.9
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.1
1998-10 106.9
1998-11 104.1
1998-12 102.4
1999-01 101.8
1999-02 102.1
1999-03 97.1
1999-04 98.5
1999-05 100.8
1999-06 99.7
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 112.0
1999-10 113.4
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.5
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.7
2000-03 119.8
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.3
2000-06 124.1
2000-07 121.3
2000-08 121.4
2000-09 121.1
2000-10 119.9
2000-11 118.0
2000-12 114.2
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.0
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.8
2001-06 104.3
2001-07 101.7
2001-08 98.8
2001-09 95.7
2001-10 95.2
2001-11 91.2
2001-12 92.6
2002-01 93.7
2002-02 95.4
2002-03 97.2
2002-04 98.7
2002-05 102.3
2002-06 100.6
2002-07 97.6
2002-08 98.2
2002-09 99.1
2002-10 96.0
2002-11 96.6
2002-12 101.1
2003-01 97.9
2003-02 97.5
2003-03 93.1
2003-04 92.1
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 90.2
2003-07 92.9
2003-08 92.7
2003-09 92.9
2003-10 95.8
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 100.7
2004-01 100.4
2004-02 100.5
2004-03 103.7
2004-04 103.4
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.4
2004-07 105.2
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 103.4
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.7
2005-05 97.2
2005-06 99.1
2005-07 100.2
2005-08 99.7
2005-09 99.1
2005-10 101.2
2005-11 101.1
2005-12 104.1
2006-01 103.1
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 109.0
2006-08 108.6
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.2
2008-06 103.6
2008-07 98.9
2008-08 98.2
2008-09 91.8
2008-10 87.3
2008-11 80.1
2008-12 73.7
2009-01 72.9
2009-02 68.9
2009-03 67.0
2009-04 70.9
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.2
2009-07 76.7
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.7
2009-12 87.7
2010-01 90.3
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.2
2010-05 96.7
2010-06 95.9
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.0
2010-10 104.2
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.4
2011-10 97.6
2011-11 97.7
2011-12 94.9
2012-01 95.1
2012-02 95.1
2012-03 96.6
2012-04 95.8
2012-05 95.0
2012-06 93.3
2012-07 91.3
2012-08 93.1
2012-09 92.9
2012-10 87.4
2012-11 91.9
2012-12 91.1
2013-01 90.1
2013-02 90.8
2013-03 90.8
2013-04 88.0
2013-05 92.3
2013-06 92.9
2013-07 94.9
2013-08 98.7
2013-09 96.1
2013-10 98.1
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.4
2014-01 99.7
2014-02 98.5
2014-03 100.9
2014-04 100.4
2014-05 98.5
2014-06 96.8
2014-07 96.5
2014-08 96.8
2014-09 97.0
2014-10 97.6
2014-11 99.0
2014-12 98.8
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.6
2015-03 99.1
2015-04 101.7
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.8
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.3
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.6
2016-01 102.8
2016-02 103.1
2016-03 102.6
2016-04 104.8
2016-05 104.5
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 101.8
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.2
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.6
2017-01 105.9
2017-02 106.8
2017-03 105.7
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 109.0
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.7
2018-04 110.8
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.2
2018-11 105.1
2018-12 103.1
2019-01 103.2
2019-02 103.4
2019-03 103.7
2019-04 101.8
2019-05 104.1
2019-06 101.9
2019-07 101.6
2019-08 102.8
2019-09 101.9
2019-10 99.6
2019-11 101.8
2019-12 98.7
2020-01 102.1
2020-02 100.8
2020-03 98.0
2020-04 67.7
2020-05 70.8
2020-06 77.5
2020-07 82.4
2020-08 92.5
2020-09 95.6

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* May 20 June 20 July 20 Aug. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 77 82 92 96
Past activity 4 -57 -41 -4 8
Finished-goods inventory 12 15 14 7 2
Overall order books -18 -55 -51 -37 -33
Export order books -14 -65 -62 -53 -42
Past workforce size -10 -29 -26 -23 -16
Expected workforce size -11 -20 -15 -15 -12
Personal production expectations 5 20 24 22 12
General production expectations -8 -15 -4 -4 -2
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Industrialists’ opinion on their recent production and their order books has improved, but their opinion on personal production expectations has worsened

In September 2020, industrialists’ balances of opinion on overall and foreign order-books has continued to grow, although remaining very deteriorated, particularly regarding foreign order-books. This rise is however more significant for the latter than for the overall order books.

The balance of opinion on change in production during the past three months has increased sharply, although at a much slower pace than in the previous month. It has, however, returned above its long-term average.

On the other hand, industrialists are less optimistic about future production than in August. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations for the next three months has fallen sharply, amplifying the dip recorded last month. It still remains above its average, which it has exceeded since June. However, industrialists are slightly more confident than in August about the general production prospects for the industrial sector.

More and more companies have considered the level of their stocks to be below normal. The corresponding balance has again fallen significantly and has moved away from its long-term average.

Regarding employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected trends in workforce size have continued their gradual rebound. The balance on the expected change is now close to its long-term average.

Business climates have continued to recover in almost all sub-sectors

In September, almost all sub-sectoral business climates have improved. In the manufacture of food products, a relatively well-preserved sector over the spring, the climate indicator has continued its rebound which began in August at the same pace (+5 points) and has again exceeded its average, driven by the balances on order books. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments, the business climate is virtually stable. The climate in the transport equipment sector is slightly better than in August, mainly driven by the automotive sector. Indeed, it remains very deteriorated in the manufacture of other transport equipment. Finally, the « other manufacturing » sector has continued to recover from its April fall induced by the health crisis. The business climate has improved by 5 points, driven in particular by the chemical industry where it has recovered (+7 points) after its decline in August.

Revisions

The August business climate has been revised downwards by one point due to the integration of late business responses.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.4 105.2 105.2 105.2
2011-02 107.6 103.3 99.7 108.3
2011-03 106.7 107.6 106.2 109.7
2011-04 108.9 105.6 105.8 109.9
2011-05 109.5 104.2 105.2 107.6
2011-06 108.6 105.3 109.4 108.8
2011-07 111.1 103.4 103.9 104.9
2011-08 103.5 101.3 101.9 100.4
2011-09 101.8 100.3 98.9 98.2
2011-10 104.3 98.9 100.3 96.5
2011-11 102.2 96.6 102.2 94.3
2011-12 98.1 96.9 100.2 94.7
2012-01 99.7 96.8 95.1 94.3
2012-02 100.3 96.7 93.8 96.0
2012-03 102.1 97.3 102.9 97.3
2012-04 99.1 96.7 94.1 98.0
2012-05 93.5 95.4 95.0 96.0
2012-06 94.8 91.7 95.8 93.9
2012-07 94.7 91.4 95.2 92.6
2012-08 93.7 90.9 95.3 93.7
2012-09 96.6 91.7 97.2 93.8
2012-10 91.1 86.6 95.7 89.6
2012-11 98.3 87.9 92.9 92.5
2012-12 98.8 88.3 92.5 92.1
2013-01 97.7 88.4 92.6 91.5
2013-02 98.0 89.4 94.4 90.5
2013-03 94.0 89.6 93.9 91.5
2013-04 91.8 90.4 93.0 89.6
2013-05 91.6 90.3 95.0 92.1
2013-06 92.6 89.8 94.9 93.5
2013-07 92.2 90.4 98.9 95.1
2013-08 95.3 92.5 101.5 97.3
2013-09 94.9 90.8 97.7 97.3
2013-10 95.5 91.2 103.7 97.9
2013-11 98.2 93.4 102.0 98.8
2013-12 98.6 92.6 100.1 99.3
2014-01 99.6 92.1 102.5 98.7
2014-02 99.2 94.6 98.1 98.4
2014-03 99.8 93.5 100.7 102.4
2014-04 95.8 93.2 102.9 100.2
2014-05 98.0 94.5 98.4 99.5
2014-06 96.0 92.6 98.2 98.7
2014-07 97.1 90.1 99.3 99.2
2014-08 95.3 94.1 97.9 100.7
2014-09 94.3 92.9 100.9 97.3
2014-10 95.7 93.3 97.4 98.6
2014-11 96.2 92.9 100.2 99.9
2014-12 99.1 92.9 99.8 100.2
2015-01 103.2 94.2 101.8 99.7
2015-02 99.5 95.9 101.2 100.3
2015-03 100.8 94.9 105.3 100.2
2015-04 104.5 97.4 107.0 100.7
2015-05 102.2 97.9 105.0 101.6
2015-06 105.2 97.9 105.2 101.0
2015-07 108.8 99.1 104.9 102.9
2015-08 103.4 98.2 107.8 101.7
2015-09 105.5 96.9 109.0 102.6
2015-10 104.3 99.0 107.8 99.9
2015-11 102.2 100.4 107.8 99.6
2015-12 99.8 98.8 107.7 101.7
2016-01 101.7 101.4 108.0 99.5
2016-02 100.2 101.4 109.0 100.0
2016-03 101.7 100.0 105.9 101.1
2016-04 105.6 101.0 109.2 101.3
2016-05 103.5 98.3 106.1 103.9
2016-06 103.2 98.0 105.9 101.6
2016-07 104.6 98.5 105.2 101.8
2016-08 99.4 99.0 104.0 101.6
2016-09 108.6 99.2 105.2 100.6
2016-10 106.6 98.2 105.8 101.2
2016-11 107.7 100.5 102.4 101.4
2016-12 108.3 104.2 104.5 104.6
2017-01 104.1 103.2 106.7 105.3
2017-02 105.6 104.6 106.4 106.3
2017-03 104.7 105.5 105.5 104.8
2017-04 103.8 107.9 106.1 107.9
2017-05 106.2 109.5 105.6 107.3
2017-06 111.9 109.1 105.2 108.5
2017-07 108.8 109.6 108.3 106.9
2017-08 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.5
2017-09 106.8 107.9 109.3 108.6
2017-10 111.2 110.1 108.6 110.2
2017-11 112.2 110.3 109.2 110.9
2017-12 110.7 111.7 110.2 110.3
2018-01 111.3 113.3 112.0 110.7
2018-02 110.3 111.4 112.1 110.1
2018-03 109.6 110.7 111.5 109.4
2018-04 109.7 110.8 112.7 107.8
2018-05 108.2 111.7 108.2 107.9
2018-06 110.0 108.5 109.8 105.9
2018-07 108.0 108.9 106.0 106.8
2018-08 108.2 108.6 106.6 106.0
2018-09 106.8 107.9 105.1 105.0
2018-10 102.4 107.4 103.7 102.6
2018-11 108.7 102.5 104.1 102.7
2018-12 107.3 102.7 102.2 102.1
2019-01 107.6 104.0 102.4 101.9
2019-02 108.7 105.3 100.7 101.4
2019-03 107.6 101.4 102.9 101.6
2019-04 107.2 102.0 101.3 101.2
2019-05 111.9 104.5 102.5 102.5
2019-06 108.1 99.4 100.7 101.0
2019-07 104.4 103.6 99.3 100.8
2019-08 108.8 100.4 101.5 102.1
2019-09 108.0 100.1 101.2 101.7
2019-10 105.6 97.0 100.7 98.9
2019-11 102.8 98.3 105.5 100.7
2019-12 107.5 97.7 99.1 97.7
2020-01 107.3 101.5 105.4 99.2
2020-02 108.1 99.9 100.1 100.5
2020-03 109.0 98.8 96.1 97.5
2020-04 92.7 77.3 73.6 73.9
2020-05 90.2 75.8 75.6 74.7
2020-06 90.6 79.2 77.3 79.5
2020-07 89.9 85.8 80.4 82.3
2020-08 97.0 92.2 91.9 88.6
2020-09 102.4 92.7 93.6 93.5

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) June 20 July 20 Aug. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 90 97 102
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 86 92 93
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 86 91 88
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 90 94 94
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 89 91 94
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 80 92 94
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 89 109 113
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 78 79 78
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 82 89 93
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 73 88 92
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 90 95 99
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 79 76 83
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 92 98 98
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 83 92 94
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 84 98 98
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am.

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