14 August 2020

2020- n° 204

In July 2020, consumer prices rose by 0.4% over one month and by 0.8% year on year Consumer price index - final results - July 2020

In July 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated by 0.4% over a month, after +0.1% in the previous month. This rise was the result of higher prices for services (+0.9% year on year after +0.3%), a slight increase in tobacco prices (+0.1% after a stability in June) and a stability of manufactured products, after a 0.3% drop in the previous month. Contrariwise, the fall in food prices was higher (−0.9% after −0.8%) and energy prices slowed down to +1.0% after +1.8%.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices rose by 0.7% in July, after +0.1% in June.

Year on year, consumer prices accelerated to 0.8%, after +0.2% in the previous month. This rise in inflation came from a sharp year-on-year rebound in manufactured products, linked to the postponed summer sales, and a smaller fall in energy prices. Contrariwise, food prices and, to a lesser extent, services and tobacco prices, slowed down.

Year on year, core inflation rose, in July, to +1.4% after +0.3% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.4% over a month, after +0.1% in the previous month; year on year, it accelerated to +0.9%, after +0.2% in the previous month.

Year on year, manufactured product prices rose by 1.8%, after −1.0% in the previous month. This rebound resulted from that of clothing and footwear prices (+10.1% year on year after −4.0%) and “other manufactured products” prices (+1.1% year on year after −0.1%), linked to the postponed summer sales. The prices of household furniture (+5.2% after +1.5%), of jewellery, clocks and watches (+4.7% after +1.3%) and of sports equipment (+2.6% after +0.7%) accelerated. Mobile phone prices fell less (−6.0% after −11.5%). The prices of major household appliances (+1.4% after −0.1%) and of games and hobbies (+1.6% after −1.2%) rebounded. Contrariwise, the prices of new motor cars stabilized, after +0.4% in the previous month. Finally, health product prices fell less than in the previous month (−1.9% year-on-year, after −2.2% in June).

Year on year, the drop in energy prices slowed: −7.4% in July, after −9.3% in June. Petroleum product prices fell less than in the previous month: −12.8% year on year, after −15.1% in June, as did gas prices : −13.0% year on year, after −16.8% in June.

In July 2020, food prices slowed down for the third consecutive month: +1.1% year on year after +2.6% in June. The prices of fresh food produces were sharply less dynamic (+2.2% year on year after +11.8%). Those of fresh vegetables (−0.6% year on year after +15.9%) sharply fell back. The prices of fresh fruits (+7.7% year on year after +14.2%) and fresh fish (+0.2% after +8.9%) deeply slowed down. Excluding fresh produces, food prices also decelerated, to +0.9% year on year after +1.0% in the previous month. The prices of meat (+2.5% year on year after +3.5%) and bread (+0.4% year on year after +1.1%) slowed down. Contrariwise, the fall in the prices of milk, cheese and eggs (−0.1% year on year after −0.7%) was attenuated.

Year on year, service prices decelerated to +0.9% in July 2020, after +1.1%. Transport prices fell back by −0.8% year on year after +2.5% the previous month, in the wake of airfares (−4.5% year on year after +8.6%). The prices of “other services” also decelerated to 1.2% after +1.3%. This slowdown was, however, limited by an acceleration in communication services prices (+1.5% year on year after +0.5%) and, to a lesser extent, in health services prices (+0.6% year on year after +0.5%). Finally, the prices of housing-related services increased at the same pace as in the previous month (+0.2% year on year).

Compared with the provisional estimates published on July 31, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP have been confirmed.