2013 to 2070 Labour force projections for France: methods and main results

The French National Office for Statistics, Insee, has conducted a new set of population projections for France. The previous one was based on the population estimates for 2007.
The new projections start from 2013 and are based on new assumptions made concerning fertility, mortality and migrations. They are extended to France as a whole (included five overseas department). The component method was used. Some methodological changes were made in the projection of each of the component. What is more, since 2007, the French population has been revised upwards using the annual census surveys from 2007 to 2013.
A total of 27 scenarios have been implemented, including a baseline scenario and 26 variants useful to analyze how changing assumptions can affect the results.
In the baseline scenario of the new projection, fertility is higher than in the previous one (completed fertility maintained between 2.05 and 2.10 children per woman for generations from 1990 to 2007 and then drop to 1.95 children per woman from generation 2019 whereas that level was reached in 1990 generation in the previous model). Life expectancy is extended by 2.5 years for men and 0.6 for women in 2060 (88.5 years of life expectancy at birth for men in 2060 against 86.0 in the previous model and 91.7 years for women against 91.1 years). The annual net-migration balance was revised downwards (+70 000 inhabitants) given recent population estimates available, and recent work by INSEE on the inputs and outputs of the territory. Indeed, the comparison between the previous projection exercise and population estimates between 2007 and 2016 shows that the difference comes primarily from this component which had been overstated.
According to the baseline scenario, the population size will increase from 65.8 million in 2013 to 76.4 million in 2070, that’s to say 10.7 millions more.