22 January 2020
2020- n° 15In January 2020, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - January 2020
According to business managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in services is stable. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
- The balances of opinion on activity remain above their average
- In road freight transport, the business climate has retreated
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate is stable
- The climate has slightly decreased in information-communication
- The climate has shrunk again in real estate activities
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has deteriorated
- The climate has sharply bounced back in administrative and support services
- For further information
According to business managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in services is stable. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.1 |
| 2000-11 | 115.0 |
| 2000-12 | 115.6 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.3 |
| 2001-03 | 113.6 |
| 2001-04 | 108.9 |
| 2001-05 | 106.0 |
| 2001-06 | 105.8 |
| 2001-07 | 103.3 |
| 2001-08 | 102.6 |
| 2001-09 | 101.1 |
| 2001-10 | 95.8 |
| 2001-11 | 95.1 |
| 2001-12 | 95.5 |
| 2002-01 | 96.5 |
| 2002-02 | 97.9 |
| 2002-03 | 102.1 |
| 2002-04 | 104.4 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.5 |
| 2002-07 | 100.7 |
| 2002-08 | 99.2 |
| 2002-09 | 97.1 |
| 2002-10 | 97.8 |
| 2002-11 | 99.4 |
| 2002-12 | 100.4 |
| 2003-01 | 96.7 |
| 2003-02 | 95.2 |
| 2003-03 | 89.9 |
| 2003-04 | 86.9 |
| 2003-05 | 91.4 |
| 2003-06 | 93.0 |
| 2003-07 | 96.5 |
| 2003-08 | 98.1 |
| 2003-09 | 99.1 |
| 2003-10 | 100.0 |
| 2003-11 | 101.6 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.5 |
| 2004-02 | 106.6 |
| 2004-03 | 106.3 |
| 2004-04 | 106.0 |
| 2004-05 | 106.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.4 |
| 2004-07 | 106.8 |
| 2004-08 | 106.2 |
| 2004-09 | 105.4 |
| 2004-10 | 106.8 |
| 2004-11 | 106.2 |
| 2004-12 | 109.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.8 |
| 2005-04 | 108.5 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.9 |
| 2005-07 | 108.2 |
| 2005-08 | 107.9 |
| 2005-09 | 107.5 |
| 2005-10 | 109.0 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.7 |
| 2006-03 | 108.1 |
| 2006-04 | 108.5 |
| 2006-05 | 111.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 114.2 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.2 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.4 |
| 2007-10 | 111.0 |
| 2007-11 | 111.1 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.3 |
| 2008-02 | 109.4 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.7 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-07 | 96.6 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.6 |
| 2008-10 | 83.1 |
| 2008-11 | 78.6 |
| 2008-12 | 75.0 |
| 2009-01 | 72.1 |
| 2009-02 | 70.8 |
| 2009-03 | 65.0 |
| 2009-04 | 65.1 |
| 2009-05 | 69.6 |
| 2009-06 | 74.8 |
| 2009-07 | 78.9 |
| 2009-08 | 81.9 |
| 2009-09 | 85.5 |
| 2009-10 | 89.0 |
| 2009-11 | 90.5 |
| 2009-12 | 91.1 |
| 2010-01 | 92.8 |
| 2010-02 | 93.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 96.8 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 97.7 |
| 2010-07 | 98.7 |
| 2010-08 | 100.4 |
| 2010-09 | 101.4 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 111.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.8 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 96.8 |
| 2011-11 | 94.4 |
| 2011-12 | 94.0 |
| 2012-01 | 91.9 |
| 2012-02 | 91.2 |
| 2012-03 | 92.7 |
| 2012-04 | 94.9 |
| 2012-05 | 90.8 |
| 2012-06 | 88.6 |
| 2012-07 | 88.1 |
| 2012-08 | 85.8 |
| 2012-09 | 85.5 |
| 2012-10 | 84.2 |
| 2012-11 | 83.5 |
| 2012-12 | 85.3 |
| 2013-01 | 86.5 |
| 2013-02 | 85.1 |
| 2013-03 | 81.9 |
| 2013-04 | 80.9 |
| 2013-05 | 82.6 |
| 2013-06 | 84.0 |
| 2013-07 | 84.5 |
| 2013-08 | 86.7 |
| 2013-09 | 90.8 |
| 2013-10 | 90.2 |
| 2013-11 | 91.1 |
| 2013-12 | 89.4 |
| 2014-01 | 91.0 |
| 2014-02 | 90.7 |
| 2014-03 | 91.7 |
| 2014-04 | 92.1 |
| 2014-05 | 90.9 |
| 2014-06 | 90.9 |
| 2014-07 | 91.3 |
| 2014-08 | 90.1 |
| 2014-09 | 89.5 |
| 2014-10 | 89.9 |
| 2014-11 | 89.8 |
| 2014-12 | 89.9 |
| 2015-01 | 89.6 |
| 2015-02 | 89.9 |
| 2015-03 | 90.9 |
| 2015-04 | 92.6 |
| 2015-05 | 94.4 |
| 2015-06 | 95.9 |
| 2015-07 | 96.7 |
| 2015-08 | 97.9 |
| 2015-09 | 96.8 |
| 2015-10 | 99.1 |
| 2015-11 | 98.8 |
| 2015-12 | 96.3 |
| 2016-01 | 99.6 |
| 2016-02 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.0 |
| 2016-04 | 97.7 |
| 2016-05 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 98.6 |
| 2016-07 | 99.9 |
| 2016-08 | 99.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.4 |
| 2016-10 | 100.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.4 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-03 | 103.2 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.6 |
| 2017-06 | 103.4 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.9 |
| 2017-12 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 108.1 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.0 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.8 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
The balances of opinion on activity remain above their average
The balances of opinion on past activity, on expected demand and on the general outlook on the sector are stable whereas that on expected activity has slightly weakened. The four balances stand above their average.
Concerning employment, the balances on past and expected employment have slightly increased in services, due to temporary work agencies, whereas they have weakened in services except temporary work agencies. Otherwise, in January, more business managers than in October have reported recruitment difficulties. The corresponding percentage stands significantly above its average level.
The balance on expected investment has grown a little, that on past investment has slightly decreased. Both stand above their average.
In January, the balances of opinion on past and on expected operating balance result and on cash position have faltered compared to October.
In January 2020, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
| Turning-point indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 0.96 |
| 2010-02 | -0.14 |
| 2010-03 | 0.44 |
| 2010-04 | 0.86 |
| 2010-05 | 0.99 |
| 2010-06 | 0.9 |
| 2010-07 | 0.77 |
| 2010-08 | 0.97 |
| 2010-09 | 0.97 |
| 2010-10 | 0.97 |
| 2010-11 | 0.96 |
| 2010-12 | 0.99 |
| 2011-01 | 0.91 |
| 2011-02 | 0.98 |
| 2011-03 | 1.0 |
| 2011-04 | 0.9 |
| 2011-05 | 0.51 |
| 2011-06 | 0.69 |
| 2011-07 | 0.16 |
| 2011-08 | -0.84 |
| 2011-09 | -0.98 |
| 2011-10 | -0.87 |
| 2011-11 | -0.81 |
| 2011-12 | -0.69 |
| 2012-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-02 | -0.86 |
| 2012-03 | -0.59 |
| 2012-04 | -0.53 |
| 2012-05 | -0.94 |
| 2012-06 | -0.99 |
| 2012-07 | -0.88 |
| 2012-08 | -0.92 |
| 2012-09 | -0.78 |
| 2012-10 | -0.88 |
| 2012-11 | -0.83 |
| 2012-12 | -0.59 |
| 2013-01 | -0.37 |
| 2013-02 | -0.92 |
| 2013-03 | -0.95 |
| 2013-04 | -0.99 |
| 2013-05 | -0.88 |
| 2013-06 | -0.64 |
| 2013-07 | -0.58 |
| 2013-08 | -0.48 |
| 2013-09 | 0.32 |
| 2013-10 | -0.34 |
| 2013-11 | -0.03 |
| 2013-12 | -0.54 |
| 2014-01 | -0.36 |
| 2014-02 | -0.3 |
| 2014-03 | -0.24 |
| 2014-04 | -0.2 |
| 2014-05 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06 | -0.78 |
| 2014-07 | -0.69 |
| 2014-08 | -0.85 |
| 2014-09 | -0.7 |
| 2014-10 | -0.6 |
| 2014-11 | -0.95 |
| 2014-12 | -0.9 |
| 2015-01 | -0.99 |
| 2015-02 | -0.92 |
| 2015-03 | -0.78 |
| 2015-04 | -0.66 |
| 2015-05 | 0.52 |
| 2015-06 | 0.6 |
| 2015-07 | 0.7 |
| 2015-08 | 0.72 |
| 2015-09 | -0.47 |
| 2015-10 | 0.76 |
| 2015-11 | 0.72 |
| 2015-12 | -0.47 |
| 2016-01 | 0.48 |
| 2016-02 | 0.57 |
| 2016-03 | 0.37 |
| 2016-04 | 0.2 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-06 | -0.49 |
| 2016-07 | 0.14 |
| 2016-08 | -0.08 |
| 2016-09 | 0.38 |
| 2016-10 | 0.54 |
| 2016-11 | 0.27 |
| 2016-12 | 0.91 |
| 2017-01 | 0.73 |
| 2017-02 | 0.78 |
| 2017-03 | 0.7 |
| 2017-04 | 0.67 |
| 2017-05 | 0.15 |
| 2017-06 | 0.9 |
| 2017-07 | 0.78 |
| 2017-08 | 0.75 |
| 2017-09 | 0.97 |
| 2017-10 | 0.99 |
| 2017-11 | 0.99 |
| 2017-12 | 0.99 |
| 2018-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-02 | 0.41 |
| 2018-03 | 0.49 |
| 2018-04 | 0.42 |
| 2018-05 | 0.48 |
| 2018-06 | 0.85 |
| 2018-07 | 0.75 |
| 2018-08 | 0.25 |
| 2018-09 | 0.4 |
| 2018-10 | -0.7 |
| 2018-11 | -0.49 |
| 2018-12 | -0.46 |
| 2019-01 | -0.22 |
| 2019-02 | -0.34 |
| 2019-03 | 0.75 |
| 2019-04 | 0.8 |
| 2019-05 | 0.98 |
| 2019-06 | 0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 0.83 |
| 2019-08 | 0.75 |
| 2019-09 | 0.7 |
| 2019-10 | 0.65 |
| 2019-11 | 0.61 |
| 2019-12 | 0.95 |
| 2020-01 | 0.93 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
- Source: INSEE.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| General outlook | -7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Past activity | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Past employment | 3 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | -2 | 0 | -2 | ||
| Expected result | -2 | 0 | -3 | ||
| Cash position | -10 | -4 | -6 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 8 | 8 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 23 | 22 | 24 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 31 | 19 | 18 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 37 | 41 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator is superior to its average in all sub-sectors. It has decreased in professionnal, scientific and technical activities, road freight transport, real estate activities and information-communication. In accommodation and food services, the climate is stable. It has sharply improved in administrative and support services.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Oct. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 102 | 106 | 104 |
| Past activity | -5 | 0 | -2 | -4 | -3 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -2 | -5 | 5 | 1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -9 | -6 | 0 | -4 |
| Past employment | -5 | -10 | -4 | -1 | 4 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 2 | -2 | 5 | -3 |
| General outlook | -18 | -8 | -10 | -12 | -11 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 112 | 106 | 106 |
| Past activity | -6 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 4 | 4 | -3 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Past employment | -4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Expected employment | -5 | -5 | 4 | -7 | -10 |
| General outlook | -13 | -6 | -3 | -9 | -8 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 102 | 105 | 104 |
| Past activity | 8 | -3 | -3 | 1 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| Past employment | 6 | -7 | -2 | 7 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| General outlook | 0 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 103 | 105 | 103 |
| Past activity | 7 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Past employment | 3 | -3 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -2 |
| General outlook | -3 | -3 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 113 | 112 | 111 | 109 |
| Past activity | -1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Past employment | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 8 |
| General outlook | -8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 104 | 102 | 105 |
| Past activity | 6 | 3 | -4 | 5 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 4 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| Past employment | 9 | -1 | -4 | -3 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| General outlook | -3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In road freight transport, the business climate has retreated
In road freight transport, the business climate has lost two points. At 104, it stands however above its average. The balances on expected employment, on expected activity and on expected demand have sharply deteriorated. However, that on past employment and to a lesser extent those on past activity as well as on general outlook have increased. All balances of opinion remain above their average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate is stable
In accommodation and food services, the business climate holds steady at 106, well above its average. The deterioration in the balances on employment and on past activity is offset by the increase in these on expected activity and on general outlook. Only the balance on expected employment is below its average.
The climate has slightly decreased in information-communication
The business climate has lost one point in information-communication. At 104, it remains nevertheless above its long-term average. The balances on employment, on expected activity and on general outlook have faltered. However, these on past activity and on expected demand have improved again, significantly.
The climate has shrunk again in real estate activities
In real estate activities, the business climate has lost two points and returned to his November level, to 103, thus remaining above its average level. The balances on past and expected employment, on expected demand and on past activity have fallen back. Only the balance on expected employment remains below its average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has deteriorated
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost two points. However, at 109, it remains well above its long-term average. The balances on expected employment and on expected demand have strongly decreased. Only the balance on past employment has improved.
The climate has sharply bounced back in administrative and support services
In administrative and support services, the climate has gained three points. At 105, it stands above its average. Only the balance on past activity has decreased. That on expected employment has clearly picked up. The balances on expected employment, on general outlook, on expected activity and on expected demand stand well above its average level.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
