30 October 2019
2019- n° 285French GDP rose by 0.3% in Q3 2019 Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2019
In Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.
In Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.
Imports bounced back strongly (+1.4% after –0.3%) and exports grew this quarter (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 points, after 0.0 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.1 points after –0.2 points).
tableauGDP and its main components
| Consumption | GFCF | Inventory changes | Net foreign trade | GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-Q1 | 0.67 | 0.21 | -0.36 | 0.11 | 0.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.18 | -0.04 | -0.68 | 0.25 | -0.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.45 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.6 | 0.21 | -0.43 | 0.21 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.78 | -0.69 | 0.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.28 | 0.21 | -0.6 | 0.79 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.17 | -0.19 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.12 | 0.2 | -0.04 | 0.44 | 0.7 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.13 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | -0.08 | 0.18 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | 0.24 | 0.22 | -0.31 | 0.18 | 0.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.31 | 0.19 | -0.29 | 0.24 | 0.4 |
| 2019-Q1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.27 | -0.31 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q2 | 0.21 | 0.29 | -0.21 | 0.05 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.14 | -0.37 | 0.3 |
graphiqueGDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE.
tableauGDP and its main components
| 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Imports | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Household consumption expenditure | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GFCF | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Households | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| General government | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Exports | 2.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Inventory changes | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production kept increasing
Production of goods and services decelerated slightly compared to the previous quarter (+0.3% after +0.4%). Output in goods stepped back again (–0.4% after –0.2%), while it grew at almost the same pace as the previous quarter in services (+0.5% after 0.6%).
Output in manufactured goods kept decreasing (–0.4% after –0.5%). Output decreased in all manufacturing sectors except for transport equipment.
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Manufactured industry | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Construction | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Market services | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Non-market services | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Household consumption | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Food products | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| Energy | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| Engineered goods | -0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Services | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| GFCF | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Manufactured goods | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.6 |
| Construction | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Market services | 1.4 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
- Source: Insee
Household consumption accelerated slightly
Household consumption accelerated slightly in Q3 2019 (+0.3% after +0.2%), mainly due to the rebound of the consumption of goods (+0.4% after –0.1%).On the contrary, consumption of services decelerated (+0.3% after +0.4%), due to a slow in expenditure on accommodation and food services after a dynamic second quarter.
Regarding goods, expenditures on engineered goods bounced back (+1.6% after –0.4%), driven by a rise in vehicle registration. Energy expenditures went back (–0.3% after +0.8%). Finally, food expenditures decreased at a faster pace as in the previous quarter (–0.7% after –0.1%).
Corporate investment kept increasing, household investment remained slack
In Q3 2019, total GFCF kept increasing (+0.9% after +1.2%). Corporate investment grew at the same pace as the previous quarter (+1.2% after +1.1%), driven by expenditures in information-communication services and in transport equipment. Household investment halted (+0.1% after +1.6%), after the rise of real estate transactions in Q2 2019.
Foreign trade balance contribute negatively to GDP growth
Imports returned to growth (+1.4% after –0.3%), driven by the rise of car purchases and aircraft equipment. Exports bounced back slightly (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth (–0.4 points after 0.0 points).
Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth
In Q3 2019, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.1 points (after –0.2 points).
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2018 | 2019 (Q2 ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | - | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| HDI (purchasing power) | 1.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 | - | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.4 | - | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | - | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.9 | 15.2 | 14.8 | - | 14.2 | - |
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.6 | - | 4.0 | - |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
| 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 31.6 | 32.5 | 33.1 | - | 31.2 |
| Investment ratio | 24.4 | 24.2 | 24.4 | - | 24.1 |
| Savings ratio | 22.3 | 23.9 | 24.6 | - | 22.6 |
| Self-financing ratio | 91.5 | 98.7 | 100.8 | - | 93.7 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 332.1 | 333.5 | 334.6 | - | 1318.8 |
| Total receipts | 316.9 | 312.8 | 314.4 | - | 1259.1 |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -15.2 | -20.7 | -20.2 | - | -59.7 |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.6 | -3.4 | -3.3 | - | -2.5 |
- Source: Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2019 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
To go further
Next publication: November 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.
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