30 July 2019
2019- n° 202French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2019 Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2019
In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms decelerated slightly: +0.2% after +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures decelerated (+0.2% after +0.4%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated sharply (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.
In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms decelerated slightly: +0.2% after +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures decelerated (+0.2% after +0.4%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated sharply (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.
Imports remained almost stable in Q1 (+0.1% after +1.1%) and exports grew at the same pace than previously (+0.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance did not contribute to GDP growth: 0.0 points, after −0.3 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points after +0.3 points).
tableauGDP and its main components
| Consumption | GFCF | Inventory changes | Net foreign trade | GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-Q1 | 0.67 | 0.21 | -0.36 | 0.11 | 0.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.17 | -0.04 | -0.65 | 0.23 | -0.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.09 | 0.1 | 0.42 | -0.38 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.61 | 0.21 | -0.43 | 0.21 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.19 | 0.53 | 0.78 | -0.68 | 0.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.28 | 0.21 | -0.55 | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.45 | 0.28 | 0.12 | -0.16 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.14 | 0.19 | -0.04 | 0.44 | 0.7 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.13 | 0.0 | -0.01 | 0.12 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | -0.09 | 0.18 | 0.16 | -0.06 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | 0.24 | 0.23 | -0.4 | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | -0.22 | 0.23 | 0.4 |
| 2019-Q1 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.28 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q2 | 0.17 | 0.21 | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.2 |
graphiqueGDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE.
tableauGDP and its main components
| 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Imports | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Household consumption expenditure | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GFCF | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Households | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| General government | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Exports | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Inventory changes | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production kept increasing
Production of goods and services grew at almost the same pace as in the two previous quarters (+0.4% after +0.5% during three quarters). It was stable in goods (+0.0% after +0.5%), while it grew at the same pace in services (+0.5%).
Output in manufactured goods fell back this quarter (−0.4% after +0.5%), mainly because production of refineries (one of them being in maintenance) and in transport equipment fell back. Production in construction decelerated (+0.3% after +0.6%).
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goods | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Manufactured industry | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Construction | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Market services | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Non-market services | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Household consumption | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Food products | 0.3 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -1.6 |
| Energy | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 0.4 |
| Engineered goods | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Services | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| GFCF | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Manufactured goods | 1.4 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3.5 |
| Construction | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Market services | 1.7 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
- Source: Insee
Household consumption slowed down
Household consumption slowed down in Q2 2019 (+0.2% after +0.4%): consumption of goods remained flat (+0.0% after +0.1%) while consumption of services decelerated (+0.3% after +0.6%), due to a slow inexpenditure onaccommodation and food services.
Regarding goods, the decline in the expenditures on engineered goods (−0.3% after +0.7%) is linked to the fall in carpurchases. Expenditures on energy remained dynamic (+0.8% after +0.9%) driven by some below average temperatures in may after a mild winter. Finally, expenditures on food decreased at a slower pace than in the previous quarter (−0.2% after −1.1%).
Corporate investment accelerated slightly, household investment remained slack
In Q2 2019, total GFCF grew at a faster pacethan in the previous quarter (+0.9% after +0.5%). Corporate investment accelerated (+1.2% after +0.7%): spendings in information-communication and business services bounced back. Conversely, household investment barely increased (+0.1% after +0.1%).
Foreign trade balance did not contribute to GDP growth
Imports remained slack after a dynamic first quarter (+0.1% after +1.1%): equipment goods spendings compensated the decrease in energy expenditures. Exports grew at the same pace than in the previous quarter (+0.2% after +0.2%). All in all, foreign trade did not contribute to GDP growth after a negative contribution during the previous quarter (0.0 point after −0.3 points).
Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth
In Q2 2019, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points (after +0.3 points).
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 2.8 | |
| HDI (purchasing power) | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.2 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.2 | 14.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
| 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 31.2 | 31.5 | 32.6 | 31.2 | |
| Investment ratio | 24.3 | 24.4 | 24.3 | 24.1 | |
| Savings ratio | 23.1 | 22.3 | 24.1 | 22.6 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 94.9 | 91.8 | 99.2 | 93.7 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 329.6 | 332.0 | 333.1 | 1318.8 | |
| Total receipts | 313.2 | 316.4 | 311.6 | 1259.1 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -16.4 | -15.6 | -21.5 | -59.6 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.6 | -2.5 | |
- Source: Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q1 2019 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
To go further
Next publication : August 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.
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